Belagio 15 - QQ hand

[MarkD]

Well, I just returned from my weekend voyage to Vegas. I didn't meet up with any 2+2'ers which was unfortunate but overall I had a good time. I am mad at myself over two hands where I had a read on a player yet still paid him off. I played the hands as if I was online against an unknown instead of in real life against an easily readable player.

Anyways this is the one interesting hand that came up over the weekend.

Pre-flop:
Hero is late MP with QQ. Two limpers, hero raises, button cold calls, BB calls, limpers call. 5 to the flop for 10 sb's.

Flop: K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Checked to hero who bets, folded to 2nd EP limper who calls. Two to the turn with 12 SB's in the pot.

Turn: K/images/graemlins/heart.gif. Limper checks, hero...?

This is the decision point that I am interested in. At the time of this hand the limper was fairly unknown to me. This was his 2nd orbit and he seemed slightly loose but none of his hands were shown down yet so I wasn't sure if he was loose or if he had a good bunch of starters. I assumed he was slightly loose and slightly passive. He turned out to be very very loose and passive unless he had a near monster, but I didn't know this until later in the session so it wasn't useable in terms of this hand.

What I'm looking for is the correct play here, and the plan for the rest of the hand. I think the rest of the hand can pretty much be planned from this point forward. So... check or bet? If you check what is your river play for an Ace, King, Jack, or 4? If you bet and he just calls what is your river play? If you bet and he check raises, what is your plan?

I'll post my thoughts and results later, although I have a feeling this is a simple decision and I just suck.

[elysium]

hi mark
you should bet, and call him down if he raises. otherwise betout on the river. simply checking and calling is also o.k..the thing not to do is fold. you must show this one down.

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
you should bet, and call him down if he raises. otherwise betout on the river. simply checking and calling is also o.k..the thing not to do is fold. you must show this one down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I did bet this turn and he check raised me. I called, the river was a 4 for a final board of K J 4 K 4. He bet, I call, he showed me K2o and my cards went into the muck.

After the hand I couldn't help but think this should be an auto-check on the turn. Not to be results oriented but on the turn I'm either way ahead or way behind. If I'm behind I'm drawing very thin. If I'm ahead they are drawing very thin.

So, when I'm ahead checking generally costs me 1BB, although it may cost me 2 if they don't call my river bet. When I'm behind checking generally will saves me between 1-2BB's (closer to 2 since most of the time he will check raise the turn but sometimes they won't even with the king). I think betting the turn is correct if and only if I can fold to a check raise.

But, maybe I'm wrong, maybe this is a bet on the turn and I played it correctly but it sure doesn't think so. I think this is one of the very few times where I disagree with Elysium. I'd love to know what others think.

[Michael Davis]

I obviously support a bet, but I'm not so sure about calling the checkraise here. In my world, a checkraise here is always a king.

-Michael

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not so sure about calling the checkraise here.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is part of the dilemna I have. This dilemna is also why I think checking is potentially the better play since on the river I get to see a showdown for one bet (whether my opponent makes it, or I make it) and there aren't many free cards that hurt me if I'm ahead.

[skp]

All that is fine and dandy analysis and I generally agree with it but a couple of other things that should go into the mix:

1. Many guys with a Jack will call on the turn and river and hope you show them AQ. So, checking the turn against these guys means that you miss out on a bet.

2. Many guys with a open-ender may not bluff on the river when they miss. Against them, you miss out on a bet as well.

Your play is player dependant (and your post indicates that you know that).

[lancastrian]

Hi Mark
I agree with elysium that this one should be shown down. But I would check behind on the turn. If checked to on the river I would bet, and if bet into on the river I will call.
My reasoning: By checking behind on the turn although giving a free card, only one overcard can come, namely, the ace. So the times when Im ahead, the free card cant hurt me that much. But if Im behind, i.e. he has the king, I save myself a bet. The times when he doesnt have the king, he may sense weakness and try to bluff me out the pot by betting on river and I can snap it off. The times when he does have the king, good for him, but Ive saved a bet or two that I might have payed off.

Hope this makes sense

Graeme

[Michael Davis]

Mark,

If you know the checkraise is always a king, a bet is better. You will get paid off by a J so often that giving up your probable 2-outer is worth it. It is when the checkraise can be something other than a K that checking behind is a better play.

-Michael

[BaronVonCP]

Why must this one be shown down?

[MarkD]

Is your typical loose, weak, B&M player capable of check raising this turn without a king?

[elysium]

hi mark
one of the reasons to bet rather than check-calling, is because you can make the 'just fine, thank-you' call of any check-raise. not betting because you must call a possible check-raise, isn't a reason not to make a bet, but rather a reason to make the bet. in other words, if your hand is strong enough to make calling a check-raise a must, then it is also strong enough to bet.

another reason i like betting over check-calling, is that it gives you an opportunity to bow, say hello, and introduce yourself to the unknown opponent you're playing. this is classic 'how do you do?'. when he replies with a curtsy and a 'the pleasure is mine' check-raise, he's inviting you to call. if you refuse the invitation, you will be curtsied all night. they''ll, 'hey mark!', and 'curtsy' catch you. if your caught not looking, it'll cost you 2.

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
1. Many guys with a Jack will call on the turn and river and hope you show them AQ. So, checking the turn against these guys means that you miss out on a bet.

2. Many guys with a open-ender may not bluff on the river when they miss. Against them, you miss out on a bet as well.


[/ QUOTE ]

These were actually my primary considerations upon betting. I really didn't know the answer to these questions but assumed he would call in scenario 1 as I assume most unknown players that appear to be semi-loose (as I described, but I was unsure as I hadn't seen any hands turned over) will call down with a jack here.

I'm still unclear what the correct play here is. Is it really that player dependent or is there a cut and dry play as I initially expected? The answers I seem to get suggest that it is player dependent in terms of whether to bet or check, as well as player dependent as to whether to call down when check raised. I would not have thought this would be very player dependent. Online it is much tougher to get reads so I think it's handy to know if there is a "best" default play here.

[3rdCheckRaise]

The problem here is that your typical 15-30Belagio player is on a loose\agro side and he will check raise you with as little as QJ or J10 on that board...Not calling this hand down will open a whole new jar of worms of people taking shots at you for the rest of your session...

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem here is that your typical 15-30Belagio player is on a loose\agro side and he will check raise you with as little as QJ or J10 on that board...Not calling this hand down will open a whole new jar of worms of people taking shots at you for the rest of your session...

[/ QUOTE ]

My experience from this weekend, which is very little, is that this statement would be more true of Party 15 then of Belagio 15. People in Belagio 15 seemed to really slow down on the turn and river.

Point well taken though, same argument Elysium used it appears.

[Mikey]

"After the hand I couldn't help but think this should be an auto-check on the turn. Not to be results oriented but on the turn I'm either way ahead or way behind. If I'm behind I'm drawing very thin. If I'm ahead they are drawing very thin."

Mark you played the turn very well up to a certain point, you forgot to fold to the checkraise. You can't check there because there are still some draws out there that he could be holding.

"Generally you should bet a hand with no outs and check a hand with outs." I think Mason says this.

[highlife]

[ QUOTE ]
But if Im behind, i.e. he has the king, I save myself a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually you save two bets, and lose one bet if you were ahead. I would check the turn, and call/bet out the river.

[DanZ]

Well, it's unlikely, giuven the opponent, that a bet can "save you the pot". So, it's just a matter of gettting the maximum value from the turn and river bets.

To steal a Mason quote:

"Bet if you know what to do if raised, and check otherwise"

Since you did not know what to do, you should check and call on the end. Later in the session, you could have bet and folded to a raise, but notice this costs you 2 outs over your "ignorant" strategy of check turn and call river.

Dan Z.

[SA125]

Auto play isn't the answer. Mixing it up is. But if I had to choose one here, I'd pick keeping the pressure on with what I think is the best hand. Instead of backing off on the BB's when I could be vulnerable. Leaving BB's on the table when you are only slightly ahead but could be called is a bad habit.

A c/r is probably a K, but could also be a semi-bluff draw, J or mid pair. Or he decided it was his only chance to win and tried it instead of folding. From what you said, it might've worked.

Situations like these are like bluff plays. You don't always have to be right. Unless you know the guy real well, you have to call this down. Feeling like an ATM only happens when you lose.