Vince Hated My Fold Here

Ok, here's the hand where Vince hated my fold. Bellagio 15-30, I was UTG and raised w/99. I had been playing tight and figured the raise would get a lot of respect. It was folded to a stubborn and sometimes aggressive player who 3-bet. I had seen him call some raises with hands that were too weak for it, but hadn't seen him play enough to know what he would play back with. A new player to the game cold-called on the button. He turned out to be a pretty bad player, but later put a move on me that might have been inspired by this hand. I called.


The flop came either 2-2-4 or 4-4-2. I checked, the 3-bettor bet, the button called. I check-raised and got re-raised by the 3-bettor. The button called and I called. The turn was another low card. I checked, the 3-bettor bet, the button called and I folded. The 3-bettor won the hand on the river with no showdown.


My reasoning was that I showed a lot of strength and was still getting re-raised. The cold-caller also presented a problem that I didn't know exactly what to think about. I thought it was unlikely my hand was good. Anyway Vince was to my left (not the best seat strategically because Vince plays well, but a good seat because you can talk to Vince.) Later he asked me what I had and said he would have called the raiser down. He thought the 3-bettor could be doing that on a wide variety of hands. In the games I usually play my 99 would very rarely be good, so I may have made a mistake in that regard. Later on I raised w/ KK early and got called by the third guy in the hand - the cold caller. I bet the flop, he called. I bet the turn and he raised. I called and check-called the river. He had very little - 3's. I wonder if my fold inspired him to take a shot. I thought the KK was a no-brainer call though, where 99 wasn't given the way the hand played. Your thoughts?

i would have bet out on the turn.


many players would wait and pop you on the turn with a monster like AA,KK,QQ after you check raise here, remember, you didnt four-bet.


i think he has big overcards(AK) and figures himself for flush,wheel, and (6) pair outs, plus maybe he can bully the tourist out of the hand, and he knows the guy behind him(button) is a moron.

I count (and I'm bad at this) $355 in the pot when it's back to you. I don't "hate" the fold as an overpair to your pair seems likely. But I think there's enough of a chance for your hand to be good to call him down. Since you didn't 4-bet pre-flop, he doesn't figure you for a monster pair.


I think a bet on the turn would have been better than a check. Now if he raises again, this would be his 4th show of strength against an UTG raiser who check-raised the flop and I'd have to be a believer.


I think I also would have bet the flop; then 3-bettor might raise and get the button out for 2 cold. I know button called 2 more bets after it was 3-bet on the flop, but that type of player is more likely to call 2 "more" after he has one committed rather than 2 "cold."


Tough hand to play out of position (aren't they all?)

HDPM,


With an unpredictable re-raiser you should usually pay off rather than fold. But another factor is in play. When you folded you were getting around 12 to 1 pot odds. If you spike a river nine (22 to 1 against) you probably can get in a checkraise with the near nuts and should average about three more big bets on the river. So right there you have about 15 to 1 on a 22 to 1 shot (also note that it is nearly impossible for a nine to be in either of your opponent’s hands, so spiking a nine is realistically a 20 to 1 shot). So although the money odds are a bit short, if you couple this factor with the uncertainty concerning what your opponent has you should call.


I do wonder about your battle plan against this type of stubborn-aggressive opponent on the flop. You want this guy to raise you on the flop with AK or other overcards. So lead into him on the flop. If he raises just call (especially if the other player folds – he didn’t this time but I’m saying be more inclined to do so head up). On the turn check unless a queen king or ace comes (then you can lead into him and fold to a raise – this raise means you are beat). Note that if a baby comes on the turn he won’t give himself a free card. So you call when he bets. On the river you usually check and call again. This method may seem wimpy but against the too aggressive but it is the solid play. Of course if he is an everyday opponent you need to mix it up more but this works well for a while.


Regards,


Rick

An aggressive player could have three-bet a big ace or a medium pocket pair. He may also play the flop aggressively with these holdings. You're only losing to TT-AA. There are 30 chances of this. There are 32 chances for AK or AQ and 12 chances for 88 or 77. As long as the third caller does not get too active, I would call him down. I doubt anyone has trips.

Andy,


If you lead on the turn (which I also like) and are raised (and the cold caller calls again) you are looking at a $440 pot (rounding off for drop and tip). This is almost 15 to 1 just to spike a nine. If you spike a nine you figure to collect about 3 bets on the river. Spiking a nine is about 21 to 1 against when you account for the fact your opponents are unlikely to hold a nine (I made a small mistake below). Given the uncertainty that you are beat with these opponents, how can you fold here after being raised?


Regards,


Rick

Drew,


Good analysis but a loose new player certainly could have trips (e.g, A4 or A2) and is slowplaying knowing he is up against overpairs or overcards.


Regards,


Rick

How did you arrive at 21-1? The way I would figure it is my two cards, the four board cards and the four opponent cards are basically exposed leaving 42 cards. There are 40 cards that hurt you and 2 cards that help you leaving 20-1. Am I figuring this out wrong?

My buddy Dangerous Dan once told me that you couldn't get him off top pair with a loaded gun. Even though he was being a little facicious there is something in what he says. Especially in a big pot situation.


vince

Well, I didn't say I'd fold, I said I'd have to be a believer. OK, I'll fess up, it implies that I would fold and I think I would. 14+:1 for a 21:1 shot is still a losing proposition; adding the reasonable 3 bet river assumption to the possibility that your hand is good (although if he raises my turn bet I would be a believer and I would lower this possibility to virtually zero) indeed makes calling close, but still negative EV.


I think I'd still fold anyway as 1) the odds still favor a fold; and 2) if a card over a 9 comes on the river, it'll be an even tougher call on the river. Also, HDPM didn't specify how low the other low card on the turn was, nor it's suit, but there could be some kind of straight draw (or flush draw) out there too.


Regards,

Andy

Drew,


You are right and I was too in my original calculation in my first post. I did the correction while I was on the phone argueing with my HMO and I got discombobulated.


Regards,


Rick

20:1 is right, making Rick's argument stronger.

"not the best seat strategically because Vince plays well, "


What does this mean! Vince plays "WELL". Does that mean I am a player in some bottemless pit, like in a well somewhere? Plays WELL indeed. Well he plays, maybe, is what you mean. Well, he plays stinky like, would make me feel better. But to say Vince plays well, well that is so so, WEll it's just to much for me to bear. I'm leaving Las Vegas and heading for LA today! Yes I have been playing WELL in Vegas. I have won for 12 straight sessions. I have won over $5k in that time but since that is only WELL I 'm heading for LA where you can get rich playing WELL like pretty boy Nebiolo. Wait until I see you again you High Desert Poker Man. You will feel the wrath of the WELL player. You will be convicted! One lesson here o High Man. The game we were playing in was 15 Holdem. It was a good game. It was a very good game. Meaning chips were being rushed to the center. Do not judge a known good poker player by his play in a game like this. Hosh made a comment in a post here concerning Vegas pro's. Vegas pros are very capable of changing gears and adapting to current situations. If they weren't they could not and will not survive. That is a law of nature and a law of long term poker winning. I am not a Vegas pro. But I play as WELL as they do so I will survive and as such unpredictable.


vince

One other point about folding top pair: when the showdown comes and you see that you would have won, it can be psychologically devastating. We all claim that it doesn't effect us, but I will admit that it does effect me. You feel bad and you can't play your best poker when you're not feeling your best.


I'm not saying one should call because of the psychological effects of folding a winner, I'm just pointing out that those effects are real for me and, I would assume, for a lot of others. I noted a post on RGP the other day where the poster claimed he has called in last postion on the river with what he knew was a loser just to see the winner's cards. Don't know whether it is true or not, but poster was saying that the psychological benefit of seeing the hand was worth more to him than the monetary loss.


I think someone may have done this to me a few weeks ago. I had the nuts on the river and raised my lone opponent's bet. He shook his head and called, turning over Q-7o on a board of something like A-5-4-3-T. More likely he misread his hand for a straight, but who knows. . .

Well, I'd love to get a chance to meet you while you're here in La-La Land; if you can, well, email me (andy@frenchcraft.com), well, maybe my well-dressed and well-groomed Pretty Boy buddy, me and, well, you, could get together for a well-made drink or three.

Easy now. It was a compliment. I don't say very many people do very many things well. I am not guilty of underestimating you here. /images/smile.gif

I think it is a 7% field edge when you call here, assuming you know you are currently behind and must fold the river if you don't hit. This is a pretty good assumption. Take the $30 and place the 9 at the craps table for a 4% edge, or just save your money and fold.


Actually, you just have to be fortunate enough to have the river checked through and you hold the winner without improving more than 7% of the time. That's optimism.


Math: 2 times out of 40 you win 17.6 bets, 38 times out of 40, you lose one bet. -2.8/40 =.07

you got to sit next to vince in a poker game...and you want to waste time discussing an arcane hand???


how about an analysis of his greatness.... modeling is important...gosh, you can die a fullfilled player..only thing left...spm on right...vince on left..with hdpwife on the button...gl

The strategy of betting the flop makes a lot of sense to me. If the raise behind me had a chance of getting the button out that is a much better option. If I were heads-up I could have gone into check and call mode and extracted bets if I were ahead and saved some if behind. I think the check-raise was a bad option in hindsight. I will also remember the point about leading if a big card comes. I could find out for sure if I'm beat. Leading the flop and maybe turn would have taken me farther than the way I played it. And the way I played it didn't tell me exactly what the guy had. I think my check-raise may have been the biggest mistake in the hand as opposed to my fold. I set up my own fold by playing the flop the way I did I think. Thanks.

This is something I will have to learn to do in the mid-limit games. Later on in the game that night I got raised by a good player after betting the turn. The hand was different, but I realized I couldn't just go into turtle mode for one raise. Based on the way the hand played out I thought I should lead on the river. It's not exactly the same, but I think I was right to lead. I won and got the last bet out of him. He was definitely a good enough player to try to push me around on the turn after seeing me play. He was vastly better than the other guy who tried it when I had KK.

"Vegas pros are very capable of changing gears and adapting to current situations."


That's how I figure it too and that's why it gets me when people talk about Vegas pros like some sort of filter-feeding collective.


Tommy