Probability Quiz

[MEbenhoe]

You and a friend make a proposition bet in which you can pick any starting hand for hold em and give him any starting hand. Then you pick the first four board cards. The only requirement is that going into the river you must be behind in the hand. The remaining cards in the deck will be shuffled and the top card will be used as the river card. Every time you win the hand he pays you $1 and everytime you lose you pay him $1. You must play this hand out 1000 times for the bet. What two hands and board cards do you choose to give you the best +EV and what is your +EV over the course of 1000 hands.

The answer I came up with is:

My hand: K /images/graemlins/spade.gifQ /images/graemlins/spade.gif
Opponents hand: 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Board: J /images/graemlins/spade.gifJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gifT /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
My outs: 4 Aces, 3 Kings, 3 Queens, 3 Tens, 4 Nines, 3 Eights, 7-3 of spades
Total outs: 25
Percent of Expected Hand Wins: 56.81...%
Expected Value: +$136.36, 13.636....cents per hand

I can't help but feel that there is a better answer out there. What do you all think?

[MEbenhoe]

No reply from anyone out there? cmon guys

[AJo Go All In]

i think no one is replying because someone posts this question every week.. do a search

[Lost Wages]

You: 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Him: 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
Board: 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

You have 71.59% pot equity. There is no card in the deck that will give him a win.

Lost Wages

[daryn]

ding ding ding!!


this guy knows his stuff

[MEbenhoe]

Thanks. I knew I was missing an obvious answer but just couldn't see it.