Ed Miller is driving me crazy !

[nummerfire]

I do not know how to post links put look under cgtv.com and see the poker hand quiz.

I do not think, that the semibluff checkraise is +EV and i certainly do not think that it is more plus EV than just calling.

The main plan is to get heads up and fire again on the turn. You are putting one and a half BB in the pot to win 6 BB (odds 1:4) Odds against hitting in two cards is 1:5

You need your turn bluff to win around 5% of the time just to get an EV of zero and maybe it would have to work 10-15% off the time to get even with the EV of just calling.

One of the arguments for the checkraise is also to fold some of the middle cards that could back into a pair. I want to keep them in to pay off if I hit. It is not like hitting one of my pair outs is a dream come through.

Ed Miller also says, that you could win already on the flop. But he has also stated, that it is a loose game and he has many opponents.

I am thinking that this is fancy play syndrome. Could somebody convince me otherwise ?

Kim

[Ed Miller]

The main plan is to get heads up and fire again on the turn. You are putting one and a half BB in the pot to win 6 BB (odds 1:4) Odds against hitting in two cards is 1:5

You haven't taken into account your backdoor flush draw. It's important here. I'm not sure I'd make the play without it. Though it is somewhat (but not completely) discounted by the chance one of your opponents holds a flush draw.

You need your turn bluff to win around 5% of the time just to get an EV of zero and maybe it would have to work 10-15% off the time to get even with the EV of just calling.

In this situation, the bluff IS going to work fairly often. The preflop raiser will be caught without a pair quite often (AQ, AJ, AT, A2s, etc.)... or with a dubious pocket pair (88, 99, etc.). In those spots, he is going to let go to your bluff a significant percentage of the time.

Turn the king into a ten, and that's no longer as true, since QQ and JJ are now overpairs, and AQ and AJ now have two overcards.

Furthermore, your opponents tend to play too passively. They aren't going to punish you by just calling on the flop and raising you on the turn with a hand like JJ. If that could happen, the semi-bluff is much more dangerous.

The bottom line is, this is very often a scary flop for a preflop raiser, and the two opponents between you and the raiser will often have nothing, especially nothing that they will call two bets with. This bluff will work a significant percentage of the time in a live $15-$30 game (I had the Bellagio $15-$30 in my mind as a model).

Ed Miller also says, that you could win already on the flop. But he has also stated, that it is a loose game and he has many opponents.

I didn't say it was a "loose" game. I said your opponents play too many hands. "Play too many hands" means "loose preflop." I didn't say anything about calling down with very little after the flop. It may sound like a nitpick to you, but I was careful to choose the words I did. Maybe I should make a bigger deal about it in my explanation.

I also wouldn't call three opponents "many." Having the fourth opponent fold is pretty crucial also to this play. If he had called instead of folding, I think clearly the check-raise is no longer correct.

I'd be the first to admit that check-raising is a bit of a marginal play. Calling is reasonably close in value I think. But I do think you steal often enough to invest the extra bet(s).

[Franchise (TTT)]

That was the one I got wrong. I think in a lot of games, you could call here and still steal on the turn. However, raising is still very defensible against certain types of opponents.

If you're 3-bet on the flop, you can probably give up on the turn.

A lot of the time you're going to be able to isolate the preflop raiser, but this example was pretty much a worst case scenario. When that happens:

Pairing your 6 or 4 could potentially give you a winner
A third heart could look just as scary to him as you
Another blank could let you force him off his hand on the turn

[nummerfire]

Thank you for answering.

I did not get the part about the game not being loose after the flop,

Maybe I have played to much in games where some people will always play a pair to the river (My live 15-30 experience) or in very aggressive games where the risk of being reraised here is very great (My Empire/Party 15-30 experience).

At least we agree the play is marginal.

Kim