Draw to the royal?

[ddubois]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="C00000">saw showdown</font>

CO (t730)
<font color="C00000">Hero (t715)</font>
<font color="C00000">SB (t1060)</font>
BB (t605)
UTG (t890)
UTG+1 (t700)
MP1 (t1670)
MP2 (t1630)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="CC3333">UTG raises to t80</font>, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls t80, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t80, SB calls t65, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>,


Flop: (t350) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets t980 (All-In)</font>, UTG folds, MP2 folds, Hero ?

I know, I know. Should have folded pre-flop. But on the flop, it should be safe to assume my spade and T outs are good. Twodimes seems down, but with the 2/4 guideline, I should be roughly 48% chance of hitting by the river and the pot is giving a 350 overlay (635 to call, might win 985).

So how do you weigh chipEV versus survival? What kind of overlay do you need make a gamble like this? And does party poker give hats for Royals made during a SNG?

[stripsqueez]

i fold pre-flop

this flop is part of the reason for folding pre-flop - i dont want to get sucked in with a drawing hand early

i think you should call - if you win you are a biggish favourite for the money and well placed to do some bullying

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[durron597]

I agree with stripsqueez. One other thing to note here; if he has a set (I'm assuming he had a set of 5s) there are 7 cards that invalidate your 12 outs to only 1 out. So it's not quite 48%.

Did he have JJ, 55 or AJ? (or in a lower buyin I guess he could have had A5s...) Even if I'm wrong and he has like, AK, you still only have 12 outs. I would call here if the flop had J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif - the OESD + flush draw is worth it IMO, but hoping for a flop like that is not worth calling preflop.