B&M Bad Beat Jackpot and odds of hitting

[MrPoker]

Hollywood Florida Seminoles have a Bad Beat Holdem Jackpot that today has grown to 104,000 +. The back-up is over 37,000.

To qualify, both hole cards must be used by both players, AAAJJ or better must be beat by four of a kind, and quads MUST have pair in hole.

I've been searching the internet without success to find the odds of hitting this jackpot, as well as the odds of hitting other bad beat jackpots with other qualifiers.

Help is appreciated.

Thanks

[j0n_blayze]

no clue. but mike caro says that it is enough to make 22 playable utg in a relatively loose game. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[eggzz]

Why would that make 22 more playable if you couldn't hit the jackpot with it?

[Abagadro]

Why couldn't you? If your quad twos beat Aces full of Jacks, you get a good chunk of it (25% at the house I play at as the winning hand). Point is that if it is that big, any pockets go up in value just on the very low chance of hitting quads.

[Losing all]

I have no idea on the odds of hitting it, but 104K is pretty huge for a BB jackpot. I'd imagine it adds quite a bit of EV per hour.

Is the room packed? If this happended at the AC Trop there whould be 100's of old folks pissin and shitin themselves out of fear they'd miss it.

[eggzz]

I forgot that the winner also gets a piece of the jackpot. My bad. Do the other players at the table also collect a percentage even though they weren't in the hand?

[TomCollins]

You could also lose quad 2's to a higher set of quads.

[benfranklin]

[ QUOTE ]
I forgot that the winner also gets a piece of the jackpot. My bad. Do the other players at the table also collect a percentage even though they weren't in the hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

The usual cut is 50% to the hand loser, 25% to the winner, and 25% divided evenly between everyone else who was dealt a hand in that pot, whether they folded or not. No share if you sat out the hand.

[jayadd]

whats even more interesting its a $1-$2 limit game.

[steamboatin]

I went to Tunica this weekend and was playing 3-6 when the bad beat was hit. Their bad beat is Aces full of Tens so it hits more often. The jackpot was around $9,000 and all the players in the room, (playing 3-6 or 5-10) got a piece of the jackpot. There were 75 players, The guy who got beat won about $3,000 the guy who beat him got $1,800 and I got $51.23 as a players share.

[MrPoker]

Jackpot distribution is: 50% to loser of hand, 30% to winner of hand, 20% to other players dealt in at that table.

The rake is 10% to $5.00 max, $1.00 jackpot drop @ $10.00, and dealers 'expect' a toke. The rake is "rounded up", and taken as follows: 1st dollar, 10th into jackpot, 16th, 26th, 36th, 46th.

A $50.00 total pot shrinks to $44.00 minus tip.

Expensive poker, no comps except free soft drinks or coffee and ya gotta tip the service person if you might want another drink later. lol. Valet Parking is NOT free, but self parking is. (You get $5.00 if you have quads 10's or better, and $500.00 for a royal)

I have been beating the games, 'earning' around $3.00 / hr, but only have 500+ hours logged. (I have not included the $5.00 bonuses in this figure, and use poker tracker on my Palm to log my sessions.)

The games are truly no foldem holdem, 11 handed, with 8 or more players seeing every flop, and rarely is a pot won without a showdown, usually with 3 or more players.

I agree that suited connectors and all pocket pairs go way up in value, but am not sure how much. Tells are rampant, and ridiculous starting hands often beat the flopped sets, etc. The deviation can be large.

So, what are the odds of hitting this jackpot?
Or, where can I find the odds? Surely someone, somewhere, sometime has solved this problem and has those numbers. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I make more $$/hour playing online, or larger stakes when I travel to real B&M rooms, but the lure of that big jackpot make me pause to wonder if my EV may be higher contiuing to try for the bad beat.

Thanks.

[steamboatin]

Ceasar's IN has a bad beat jackpot and the minimum hand is Aces full of tens. The odds must be about one in forty some thousand because it usually gets to forty thousand plus before it gets hit.

That will drive the math guys wild but it works for guy like me who should have paid more attention in school.