Help on Turn and River action please

[x-ray]

BB was a decent player, but did overplay top pair a little which left enough doubt in my mind to three-bet him on the turn (he might also have something like AJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif and could be semi-bluffing his mid pair nut flush draw). When he capped I knew I was in trouble. Should I be raising the river? It seems like slowplayed set or two pair, but I wussed out when I hit my redraw.

Thanks,
Ray

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG folds, MP calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, BB <font color="purple">(SeemsReasonable)</font> calls, MP calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SeemsReasonable checks, MP checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SeemsReasonable calls, MP folds.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
SeemsReasonable checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">SeemsReasonable raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">SeemsReasonable caps</font>, Hero calls.

River: (12.25 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SeemsReasonable bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14.25 BB

Results in white below: <font color="white">
SeemsReasonable shows Qd Jc (two pair, queens and jacks).
Hero shows Kd Qs (two pair, kings and queens).
Outcome: Hero wins 14.25 BB. </font>

[naphand]

The only reasonable holdings your opponent has to make a set are 66 or 77. Everything else doesn't fit, as QQ and JJ would surely be raised PF. That means most hands capping the Turn will be 2-pair, and given your read of his play with TP, that seems quite likely.

The hands that make 2-pair, by far the most likely is QJ with Q7, Q6, J7 and J6 in decreasing order of likelihood. My first reaction when reading the hand was "QJ".

You need to be 2:1 fav to make the River raise (lose 2 more when behind, win 1 more when ahead). The range of hands, at first glance, makes this look a good thing; 5 of them.

But I just don't feel comfortable putting your "dedent player" on hands like Q7, Q6 or J7, J6. Is he really calling these to a raise? Perhaps if they are suited? QJ seems far more likely to me.

I am really tempted to put another bet in on the River, but I just don't feel I can put him so hard on QJ. It's close though. I think call is OK, but if you hate to make top 2-pair and not put another bet in on the River, then raise. If I am feeling good, and the game is good, I raise. But most of the time I take the more cautious line here, I think.

[tripdad]

you are barely getting odds to call the turn check/raise, much less 3-bet it. folding is a strong option, too. if i get check/raised in a low limit sh game, i know i am beat if i only have a pair. however, when your K comes, i would raise because his most likely holding is QJ IMO. also, you will NEVER get 3-bet with that board, so you are risking just 1 more BB.

cheers!

[PassiveCaller]

At this level on paradise I'd expect to be beat most of the time with this turn c/r. With this board I think you have to place a higher emphasis on him having two pair Queens and Jacks then a set. I don't think you gain enough here really by 3-betting the turn and your odds of drawing out on 2 pair here are less then the 1 in 7 given to call that turn bet.

It comes down to
-What are teh chances he has 66 or 77 (0 outs)
-What are the chances he has QJ (3 outs)
-What are the chances he does this with like KJs or AJs (ahead)
-What are the chances of a total bluff?
-What are the chances semi-reasonable has a weirder two pair
like 67 or Q6, or J6. (5 to 6 outs)

Most of these situations are bad and to the most common denominater you have very few outs. The KJs or AJs suited or a total bluff probability needs to be much higher to even make this a situation where a call is warranted. The situations in which you are beat here seem highly more likely.

That being said I think you have to reraise this river if you do call the turn bet and you can't just be calling and winning one bet back. By calling you pretty much already decided he didn't have a set and top two pair here needs to be pushed a bit more.

[naphand]

Yes, I think the Turn 3-bet was OTT. Though I think it's hard to get away from calling; although you are only getting 7:1 with possibly 5 outs (8:1) you can be sure to get at least 1 more bet out of him on the River, and 2 if you are going to raise.

The problem as I see it is; if you only call his Turn CR, and make a 2-pair on the River, you can be raising and still be losing to a set. There is nothing about the board which says QJ is more likely than 66 or 77, though I agree it feels more likely, just I am not certain enough to put him that hard on QJ. The board and betting could be a few things besides, and this is typical of how a lot of players will play their sets.

But here, hero is 3-betting the Turn and it gets capped. When that happens, I think you need to start thinking about a set. Though from his opponents perspective, top 2-pair is almost certainly ahead and the cap is obligatory. If this opponent has a handle on hero's game, and is sensible, then a cap with 2-pair would be fine. A large chunk of players, however, will only cap here with a set, which is why I would tend to play more cautiously on the River (given the Turn 3-bet/cap). I make some very nice pots from players who call my set here and then get to 3-bet the River when they improve to 2-pair.


Looking at the hand overall, I think calling the Turn CR and raising the River after improvement looks best. Folding the Turn CR needs more of a read than the sparse information we have here, our man has outs.

[naphand]

I'm not sure I know I am beat to a Turn CR. The 2nd /images/graemlins/heart.gif falling could be very significant and couple that with the limp PF, and a CR (where hero is still ahead) can be made by some players with hands like Qxs, Jxs, A6s, A7s, T9s, 89s (x &gt; 7).

Maybe Paradise is different, from what I have seen so far of the 5-max tables there, the players can be appalling and CR with all sorts of garbage.

NB. The board does not stop any with 66 or 77 from 3-betting.