What is reasonable variance?

[RoyalSampler]

Yesterday I think we establish in NL 5-10 big blinds per hour is reasonable for an average player. Just along those lines, what is reasonable % of up sessions? I.e. at 50% you would have to be up 10bb for every session down 5bb.

a)up to 1 hours sessions; 50%?
b)1-2; 60?
c)3-4; 70?

These are real guesses, I'm not tracking, which I might, but I'm curious what you guys find? Does PT tell you this? If so what values are you finding? Thanks

[Guy McSucker]

I can't remember precisely (pokertracker not to hand at the moment), but I seem to recall that when I logged a decent amount of hands at Party $50 NL, I won $14 per 100 hands and had a standard deviation of $60.

Plugging these values into the normal distribution,

probability of winning over 100 hands is 59%

probability of winning over 400 hands is 68%

probability of winning over 900 hands is 75%

One important fact about NL poker, especially with limited buy-in amounts as you find online, is that the standard deviation is remarkably low and the chance of winning, if you're a good player, is very high, compared to limit poker.

There are lots of normal probability calculators around, e.g. this applet (http://www.math.csusb.edu/faculty/stanton/m262/normal_distribution/normal_distribution.html)


Hope this helps,

Guy.

[bingledork]

RoyalSampler,

Here's my data from my small NLHE home game. I don't have a lot of data yet. My oppenents' skill level range from mediocre to terrible. There's one total maniac in my game which causes my large variance. He and I go to the felt alot. We usually play 6-handed.

17 sessions x 5 hours each = 85 hours.
Average Winnings = 12.5 BB/hour
Winning Sessions = 12
Losing Sessions = 5
Best Win = 270 BB
Worst Loss = -235 BB.

[Leo Bello]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't remember precisely (pokertracker not to hand at the moment), but I seem to recall that when I logged a decent amount of hands at Party $50 NL, I won $14 per 100 hands and had a standard deviation of $60.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do u calculate your Sd in Poker tracker? Is there an automatic way?
Or do I have to use the formula to calculate by myself?