Raise the river with King high. Odds to do so?

[Avatar]

Soft 10/20 game at the casino.

I'm on the button with K/images/graemlins/club.gif-10/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
Folded to me. I raise. SB and BB call (both semi-loose, non-aggressive players).
Flop (6 SB) -> A/images/graemlins/heart.gif-8/images/graemlins/club.gif-3/images/graemlins/heart.gif
Checked to me, I bet, SB calls, BB calls.
Turn (4.5 BB) -> (4/images/graemlins/spade.gif)-A/images/graemlins/heart.gif-8/images/graemlins/club.gif-3/images/graemlins/heart.gif
Checked to me, I bet, SB calls, BB folds.
River (6.5 BB) -> (10/images/graemlins/spade.gif)-4/images/graemlins/spade.gif-A/images/graemlins/heart.gif-8/images/graemlins/club.gif-3/images/graemlins/heart.gif
SB bets. I raise...

Correct play on my part?
My thought here is this player either is determined to call down with a pair or is on the flush draw. The stop'n'go bet on the river, now pushes me in favor of believing he has just missed his /images/graemlins/heart.gif draw.

Unforunately he may have picked up a smaller pair along the way. With only king high, would I be correct in thinking raising or folding (not calling) is my only option here? If he has no pair and was on a flush draw he has to fold. This raise may also perhaps make him muck a medium pair.

With the pot laying me 3.75:1 on my raise, I only have to make this player muck 1 in 3 times in the long run, to make this play profitable. The way the BB played this hand, what percent of the time do you think he would actually have been on a flush draw here? (I estimate 50%, but this figure is up for debate).

Thoughts on the whole hand?

[Franchise (TTT)]

You might have to edit the hand, you have the river card as the T /images/graemlins/spade.gif, which is one of your hole cards.

[Avatar]

Edit of original post:
River card was 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, not 10/images/graemlins/spade.gif. I had no pair. Only King kicker. There were no straight or flush possiblities on board.

Thanks, Franchise, for pointing that out.

[Gotmilk]

Well do you think hitting the pair is what induced him to bluff? Do you think he'll really muck a pair? Have you seen him bluff before? I think a raise might be a reasonable price at like 3.something to 1, but remember you are raising because you think you might have something to showdown. Why not just call if you think your King is good and take the 7.5 to one odds that your King is good?

[highlife]

Unless he is on a bluff, you are getting called down here. What is your read on this player? Most of the time I would just call here. If he is a predictable loose weak player, I would think about folding even. He might have hit a two pair with that seven, or could be betting a weak ace for value.

[nykenny]

judging by the tone of your post, i suspect you won this pot. but in reality, i think a fold is better most of the time. pot is not insanely large, and the SB could be on a bad Ace or a medium pair and deployed stop & stop & go on you, in which case he would not fold to river raise.

if he was bluffing with a busted flush or straight draw, why would u care? just call. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
Why not just call if you think your King is good and take the 7.5 to one odds that your King is good?

[/ QUOTE ]

b/c if his read is correct there are pairs with which he'll "bluff" into hero but not call a raise to try to get hero to lay his hand down. i agree that usually there is a call here but he's not good enough to call w/ king high (aka, his hand isn't good enough)...that would have to be right 11% or more to be profitable whereas the raise has to be right 20% or more to be profitable.

but now, with which is he more likely to win the pot. this is an interesting point b/c there appears to be an interesting almost paradox that arises in a situation like this (and the one from the other post with AJo). he may be getting the odds to call, but he may be getting lesser but "better" odds to raise. its a paradox b/c he may be bluffing with the best hand a % of the time, but the times he's actually bluffing and takes a pot away from a hand that won't call but would win if he called may make it worth it.

all in all i dont think calling will win 11%, but raising may win 20%...tough decision here though in terms of those two choices...

BUUUUUT, isn't a fold a better choice than the above?

-Barron

[Gotmilk]

Yes, I understand that it is conceivable that raising might be more likely to win than calling, but I think the most important thing in this situation is the read. My point is whether you raise or call is because you sense some sort of bluff/weakness--Do you really think pairing on the river is what induced the bluff? This seems like the WORST spot to bluff because you might lose the chance of a check-check win if your opponent decides to bluff-raise? I just think that if the guy is going to bluff, he is going to bluff whether he pairs or not which makes a call in order IF YOU believe king high is the best hand. I'd probably usually fold in that situation because I don't think a bluff will be particularly successful in that spot, especially because players who bet when they pair will probably call anyways.

I guess in my experience players don't bet their flush draw when they pair, they bet it when they miss. It would suck if he called and turned over KhJh or something tho ;-)