What are the chances that I'm a winning player?

[LondonBroil]

I only have 6,876 hands so far because most of the sites I play at don't work with PT, but after the 6,876 hands (107.95 hours) at 3/6 I'm averaging 1.77BB/hr. Is there a way to figure out the chances that I'm a winning player?

[uuDevil]

You need to provide your standard deviation as well: in PokerTracker Session Notes tab-->More Detail...

[LondonBroil]

Sorry for the delay, forgot I made this post. My StDv is 11.41/hr, or 14.11/100 hands. I know this is an insignificant sample size, but how would I make this calculation?

[daryn]

search the archives. look for BruceZ posts regarding standard deviation.

[Paul2432]

To convert your standard deviation for one hour to a large number of hours multiply the SD/hr by the square root of the number of hours. In this case afteer 107 hours of play your SD would be 107^0.5 x 11.41 BB = 118 BB. You have won 107 BB x 1.77 BB hr = 189 BB.

You can now assume different values for you true win rate and calculate the number SDs from the mean that would represent and then relate that to a probability. I'll pick three WR as examples.

WR: 0
Expected win: 0
SDs from mean: (189-0)/118 = 1.6
Probability result is due to chance: 5%

WR: -1
Exp Win: -107
SDs from mean: (189 - -107)/118 = 2.5
Probability result is due to chance: 0.6%

WR: 1
Exp Win: 107
SDs from mean: (189-107)/118 = 0.69
Probability result is due to chance: 25%

I've probably made an error somewhere, but it would seem you could you can be reasonably confident you are a winning player (95%), but only somewhat confident you are a 1BB/hr winner (75%).

Paul