Normally Good Fold, or Huge Leak?

[banditbdl]

Just coming back to playing a little limit hold'em over on Party this week after playing mostly NL ring games and tourneys over on Prima. I played this hand pretty passively but it seemed like the way to go at the time, at least until we got to showdown... My turn and river play seem the most debatable.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, BB folds.

Turn: (7.25 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls.

River: (11.25 BB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="CC3333">UTG raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="CC3333">UTG+2 3-bets</font>, Hero folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 20.25 BB

Results in white below: <font color="white">
UTG+1 shows Ks 9h (two pair, kings and nines).
UTG+2 shows Jd Kc (two pair, kings and jacks).
Outcome: UTG+2 wins 20.25 BB. </font>

[James Boston]

Why didn't you raise the turn? Fear of a 10 isn't an acceptable answer.

[JDErickson]

I would have raised the turn and called a 3 bet.

On the river I would have called it down unless I hit my boat.

You may be beat by a straight or you may not, but I don't think I would fold this.

Jim

[ChuckNorris]

A huge leak. Even with that many people and raises on the river, it is by no means certain that anyone has a straight with so many big cards, people often hit two pairs, top pairs and stuff like that. I think you must call.
On the turn there are many hands that UTG might have that are behind you; pair of kings, two pair, flush or straight draw or a lesser set, and the other two seem to be drawing. You have every reason to raise the turn.

[cjromero]

After hitting your set, you have to raise the turn. Not doing so because you fear the straight is just seeing monsters under the bed. If you are 3-bet on the turn, you still have sufficient odds to call and try and fill up on the river.

Even when people wake up on the river, you can't fold. The pot is just too damn big.

[tardigrade]

I really don't think you played it badly. Every move you made is sensible. But I do think this is a perfect example of where aggressive play can really make a difference. I'm guesstimating about a 30% chance one of your opponents is holding a 10. With your draw to both the full house and gutshot straight on the turn, plus a nice made hand to start with, I think a turn raise is justifiable. In the face of your raise, I think no one would have acted up on the river, or at least if you were getting played back into, then you have more information to base a river fold on when you don't improve. I think the turn raise would have been a good gamble, and it would have won this hand for you. I don't think it's a huge leak, though, just a reminder to take a few more calculated risks.

[k000k]

[ QUOTE ]
Why didn't you raise the turn? Fear of a 10 isn't an acceptable answer.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well that IS the answer... KK is the only other thing, but thats slim odds considering the PF action.

With that flop, you KNOW that a Q gives a T a straight. Your QQ standing alone has more chance of losing to an K/2pair/BD flush/straight/etc than hitting your set and losing to ONLY KK or Tx. If you were going to be scared of your Q hitting, you should have folded the flop.

Ridiculous when you put it that way, eh?

[James Boston]

[ QUOTE ]
If you were going to be scared of your Q hitting, you should have folded the flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. But he didn't fold, he DID make a set, so play it with some strength.

[3rdEye]

For 2 more BB in this pot I'm never laying down trip queens.

[cold_cash]

Next time don't post the results with the hand and I'm guessing you'll get some different answers.

[cnfuzzd]

why would you expect different advice? The only reason you call the flop action is to make your set, and after the turn you have ten outs to improve to the nuts or near nuts. Even if a ten fell i would expect to split the pot, as im not giving credit to an ace being out. Not raising the turn here makes all those times you call on the flop hoping someone didnt pair their one overcard -EV, imo. As my eternal hero bisonbison recommended, you need to get a small dinosaur toy, place it enxt to your computer, and repeat to yourself: "this is the only monster i see"

peace

john nickle

my dinosaur says hi.

[cold_cash]

I'm saying that when there's a 4-straight on the board, and it's been raised and re-raised in front of you, it's much easier for someone to say "I would never fold a set here in a million years" when they already know the results.

I wouldn't consider our hero being worried about being behind at that point "seeing monsters", I would consider it a real possibility. Especially since his opponents have been fairly passive the whole way, then all of the sudden they can't get enough chips in the pot.

I just got the impression that most of the replies here thought even considering folding on the river an abomination, and I don't agree with that.

[cnfuzzd]

No one came alive when the queen fell off. The main aggressor in the hand continued his betting, all call. Now, if hero had raised, then been reraised, i would have been more leary of calling down, but there was absolutely no change in the betting patterns on the turn. Now, the river on the other hand is full of action, but at his worst, hero is getting a 4:1 on his call of the two raises in front of him. he only needs to be ahead one out of every four times to show a profit. NPA, where are you?

peace

john nickle

[HajiShirazu]

I think I play the flop and turn the same way-you are always beat but have the odds to draw. You might think about raising the turn here-UTG doesn't seem to have the straight, you have ten outs and if you're behind you're not losing much with three callers.
FWIW I fold this river every time-the pot is just not big enough to warrant calling down against the fairly obvious straight. When he 3-bets that river I expect to see the straight around 98% of the time which means that the pot is not big enough.
You lost this one? Wow.

[LeftBack]

Once you hit your trips, don't you have 10 outs to a full house or quads? 3.6:1 x 3 = 11 BB. You have pot odds to call, right?