Chances of breaking even

[JTG51]

Can someone help me calculate the chances of breaking even or losing over an extended period of time for a given WR and SD?

I vaguely remember a post with the formulas here in the past, but I can't seem to find it using the search function.

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
Can someone help me calculate the chances of breaking even or losing over an extended period of time for a given WR and SD?

I vaguely remember a post with the formulas here in the past, but I can't seem to find it using the search function.

[/ QUOTE ]

EV (after x hours) = EV*x

SD (after x hours) = SD*sqrt(x)

Probability of breaking even or being behind is N(-EV/SD), where N is the normal distribution.

So, it's N([-EV*x]/[SD*sqrt(x)]), or N([-EV/SD]*sqrt(x))

The easiest way to solve is by using the <font color="green">=normsdist()</font> function in Excel.

I hope you're enjoying California.

-- Homer

[Homer]

Here's a quick example. Say your EV is 1 BB/hr and your SD is 10 BB/hr.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
x P(behind)
1 46.02%
10 37.59%
50 23.97%
100 15.87%
500 1.27%
1000 0.08%</pre><hr />
-- Homer

[JTG51]

The easiest way to solve...

Great. I think I can handle that.

I hope you're enjoying California.

Yup, so far so good. Thanks for asking.