View Full Version : Chances of breaking even
JTG51
07-01-2004, 07:00 PM
Can someone help me calculate the chances of breaking even or losing over an extended period of time for a given WR and SD?
I vaguely remember a post with the formulas here in the past, but I can't seem to find it using the search function.
Homer
07-01-2004, 07:30 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Can someone help me calculate the chances of breaking even or losing over an extended period of time for a given WR and SD?
I vaguely remember a post with the formulas here in the past, but I can't seem to find it using the search function.
[/ QUOTE ]
EV (after x hours) = EV*x
SD (after x hours) = SD*sqrt(x)
Probability of breaking even or being behind is N(-EV/SD), where N is the normal distribution.
So, it's N([-EV*x]/[SD*sqrt(x)]), or N([-EV/SD]*sqrt(x))
The easiest way to solve is by using the <font color="green">=normsdist()</font> function in Excel.
I hope you're enjoying California.
-- Homer
Homer
07-01-2004, 07:36 PM
Here's a quick example. Say your EV is 1 BB/hr and your SD is 10 BB/hr.
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
x P(behind)
1 46.02%
10 37.59%
50 23.97%
100 15.87%
500 1.27%
1000 0.08%</pre><hr />
-- Homer
JTG51
07-01-2004, 07:44 PM
The easiest way to solve...
Great. I think I can handle that.
I hope you're enjoying California.
Yup, so far so good. Thanks for asking.
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