Can I use this type of Logic when decideing whether or not to call?

[kingstalker]

Yesterday I had a opponet bet into me on the river when I had K-K(Two opponets on flop, one folded to the flop bet)I bet the flop and checked the turn which may have shown weakness and induced a bluff) on a
A-6-2-9-A board with two hearts on the flop, I made the call on the end becuase I figured the odds of him having a ace were about 11 to 1 against because of the two aces on board, I figured it was more likely he had a flush draw which missed and that is indeed what he had.Can I use the 11 to 1 or would I assume the standard he had a 1 in 3.5 chance of having a ace?

[Lost Wages]

You can't use odds to determine the chances of him having an ace because his hand isn't random. You are just going to use your best judgement.

FWIW, I think you had to call the river after you checked the turn.

Lost Wages

[M.B.E.]

Suppose that on the turn you estimated the probability your opponent held an ace as p. (Also for simplicity let's further assume (a) the probability he has AA is 0, and (b) regardless of whether he has an ace, he will bet the river.)

Now, still on the turn, the probability an ace will hit the river is (3-p)/44.

Thus, by Bayes' Theorem, after the ace does hit the river, the probability that your opponent holds an ace is

( (2/44) x p) / ((3-p)/44)

= 2p/(3-p)

As an example, if on the turn you figured there was a 1/3 probability that your opponent held an ace, then on the river that should drop to 1/4.