Formula for moving up in buy-ins

[Meatmaw]

I use this formula for determining my "confidence" level for moving up to a higher buy-in amount. I'd love to hear opinions on how to improve it or in what ways it is flawed.

Basically, I take the sum of these values:

1) (Target Buy-in amt / Profit ) - (# buy-ins wanted in bank before starting off in new level)

2) (# Tourneys played - # Tourneys considered minimal experience)/(# Tourneys per unit confidence)

So with the summing of these two, I get a number which is zero for neutral confidence. It basically lets me say something like "I want to have a BR of 7 buy-ins and have 100 tourneys under my belt before I move up, but if I make a lot of profit, or if I play a lot of tournaments, I increase my confidence such that I can make up for deficiencies in meeting the other requirements."

I haven't thought of a formula yet for dealing with when to move down in buy-in levels, but figured I'd get to that when there actually is a level below what I'm currently playing. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Opinions are appreciated.

[Daxonovitch]

This might be a bit complex since you putting a few variables in the equation: "# of tourneys considered minimal experience" is just one number I'm sure you could debate endlessly with people. I've played several dozen $50 S&Gs (the lowest level at party with 1000 starting chips) and still don't feel like I have "any" experience in the level. "# tourneys per unit confidence"? Fahgeddaboutit.

Why not go based on your BR and "comfort level"? Many people commonly use 30xbuyin as a minimum to play a given level (for STTs). 30.001xBuyin as your BR is ok to play that level. 29.999 and you play the next level down. Simple, and easy to not get broke with. Stick to it and you've got endless play with any BR.

[Meatmaw]

wow, with an roi of 15% (i know, low), that's 400 $5.50 tourneys before I can afford 30 $11 buyins. /images/graemlins/shocked.gif Guess that's not out of the ordinary for most people, but it's hard enough for me to shake the feeling that I can observe so much better when just playing one table at a time, which takes forever. Guess I got my work cut out for me!

[Daxonovitch]

[ QUOTE ]
... with an roi of 15% (i know, low), that's 400 $5.50 tourneys before ...

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but you'll never get broke with a bad run of 5 or 10 SNGs (which does happen).

[Daxonovitch]

Actually, you know, I should qualify this to some extent. If you're playing $5 sngs and you don't mind reloading all that much (a $100 deposit isn't going to kill you but you just prefer to keep less than a few hundred online), then you can shade your buyin-BR level down some. For those playing with 4 or 5 digit BRs, reloading with a poor winning streak (rather, a good losing streak) just is too difficult to do. Mitigate your risk, and make appropriate BR adjustments.