Black Jack long term

[toby]

I occasionally hear about people coming back from a night playing blackjack with a huge win. For regular blackjack players, do these wins come because of short-term variance and playing solid basic strategy, or is there some kind of counting involved, betting bigger when the count is good and small when it's not?

I'm interesting in playing blackjack more after a good 2 nights in Montreal covered the majority of my trip expenses. However, at that point I barely knew anything about strategy and absolutely nothing about counting.

[Iceman]

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I occasionally hear about people coming back from a night playing blackjack with a huge win. For regular blackjack players, do these wins come because of short-term variance and playing solid basic strategy, or is there some kind of counting involved, betting bigger when the count is good and small when it's not?

I'm interesting in playing blackjack more after a good 2 nights in Montreal covered the majority of my trip expenses. However, at that point I barely knew anything about strategy and absolutely nothing about counting.

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A basic strategy player's disadvantage against the house can be lower than half of one percent, depending on the exact rules used in that casino. In the short-term, that player is likely to have massive winning and losing sessions, and will only average out to a small loss in the (very) long-term. The variance in blackjack is very high, and even a clueless player can have major wins on a given night.

To have an advantage over the house, you need to count cards. The basic idea of counting is that certain cards favor the player, while certain other cards favor the house:

-the house is forced to hit 12-16, so the more tens in the deck the better it is for the player; also you get more blackjacks when there are more aces and tens in the deck (he gets more blackjacks too, but he pays your blackjacks at 3-2, while you only pay his at even money).
-the reverse is true for small cards that turn the house's 14s, 15s, and 16s into good hands while ruining a player's double downs and split aces.

When a lot of dealer-favorable cards have come out, the remaining deck can be so weighted towards player-favorable cards so as to give the player the advantage, and you adjust your bets to take advantage of this. To a lesser extent, you use the count to affect your plays during the hand rather than always using basic strategy (e.g. standing on 16 against 10 when the deck is full of high cards).

The catch of course is that if they realize you're counting, they'll shuffle immediately, ask you to leave, or even ban you from their casino. To avoid these outcomes, counters have to increase their bets gradually when the odds are in their favor, or sometimes even throw in a negative-EV play once in a while to avoid detection. The higher you play, the more attention you can expect, and the more difficult it will be to get away with it. In general, a successful counter's advantage is in the 0.5%-1.5% range.

[charlie_t_jr]

Great post, Iceman.

Toby, just remember variance is a Monster in BJ. Sure, sometimes in poker, it can be nerve racking, but in BJ, its absolutely frightening...you have been warned.

But there is a certain satisfaction to playing a winning game against the casino. A casino that is constantly trying to turn what Binion used to call a "fair gamble" into a useless carnival game.

If your going to spend any amount of time in a casino to play poker, learn basic strategy for the BJ game. It can be a fun break from the poker tables, and if you know basic strategy, it'll be the best game, outside of the poker room for you.

If you decide to go further and learn to count cards, look into the hi/lo, or KO counting systems...good place to start.

[j0n_blayze]

Toby don't be a sucker. Just stick to poker.

[charlie_t_jr]

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Toby don't be a sucker. Just stick to poker.

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Sucker? You'll find the suckers at 3 card poker, Let It Ride, slot machines, etc. (and several in the poker room too /images/graemlins/laugh.gif)

BJ takes a certain amount of commitment to play with an advantage, but if you play anything outside the poker room, it should be BJ. Perfect basic strategy will give you the lowest house edge of any game on the casino floor.

If you enjoy gambling, and can afford it, by all means sit down at the Let It Ride table.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

Blackjack has huge short term variance, even for card counters. For example, last week I witnessed a total drunk who liked to double down hard twelves against tens and aces came up about $7000 while my friend, a fairly accomplished card counter wound up down $400.

[aas]

Here is where I first learned to count cards.