A dark-check indicates an ace (more data)

First time it's come up in live play since lasting posting on this conjecture: when the BB calls a raise preflop and then checks the flop in the dark, especially if the pot is two or three-handed, the BB will have an ace 90% of the time.


I was on the button with K-9 of spades. One player limped and the new player on my right had posted. He checked. I raised, the SB folded, the BB called, the limper called, and the poster folded. (Nice laydown, whatever it was. That's a play I have a hard time making, hence one of the reasons I enter games on the big blind.)


It's three-way now. The big blind checks in the dark. The flop comes A-Q-x. They both checked and I'd bet here dang near 100% of the time, feeling very safe and profitable. Except that the guy checked in the dark and from now on I'm playing that to be an ace. So I checked behind on the flop.


The turn came the Queen of spades, pairing the board and giving me a flush draw. The first guy hesitated a little and checked. The next guy hesitated a lot and checked. I simply checked.


River, blank. First guy bets, second guy calls. They both had an ace. Chaching!


Tommy

I'll have to start looking for this "Blind check means an Ace" phenomenon in my games. It's not something I've been paying attention to.

Like Dynasty, I haven't been paying much attention to it, but I've always pondered what it meant, and I always figured it to be a smallish pocket pair (i.e. either they'll flop a set and want to checkraise, or they won't flop the set, and thus won't want to bet).


Tommy, you mention a 90% figure for aces. You seem to have payed more attention to this than the rest of the forum....have you seen many people do this with a small/medium pocket pair?


Worm

"Nobody ever responds to Tommy's posts."


Yet he's one of the few around here who will sometimes respond to somebody else's thread, and then get more hits than the original poster! /images/biggrin.gif /images/tongue.gif /images/smile.gif

"have you seen many people do this with a small/medium pocket pair?"


Not since I became sensative to the dark-check indicating an ace, which wasn't all that long ago, meaning the data input since the conjecture is lean.


Tommy