KQs in 1st round $10+1 SnG

[el Jefe]

long time ring game player looking to mix in some tournament play. This was only the 5th hand dealt and I have no reads on the players.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t785)
UTG (t565)
UTG+1 (t800)
UTG+2 (t800)
Hero (t800)
MP2 (t925)
MP3 (t775)
CO (t710)
Button (t1100)
SB (t740)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls t15, UTG+1 calls t15, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t30</font>, MP2 calls t30, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">Button raises to t45</font>, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls t30, UTG+1 calls t30, Hero calls t15, MP2 calls t15.

Flop: (t250) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks, <font color="CC3333">Button bets t100</font>, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls t100, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises to t880 (All-In)</font>, <font color="CC3333">Button raises to t1055 (All-In)</font>,

Hero ???

more outs than I can count, but it's early and I don't even have a hand yet.

-Jeff

[La Brujita]

My thoughts:

1. Preflop you shouldn't raise here I don't think. If you do raise here, a mini raise is not the way to go. You should make a bigger raise. The reason you don't raise is you don't mind a volume pot and you can't stand the heat against a big reraise.

2. Post flop with this big of a flop I am happy to back it with all my stack. Leading out with a slightly smaller than pot sized bet seems fine but given stack sizes I prefer a check raise all in.

If you had no read I still would have called the all in bet most likely but that is a much weaker choice than you putting others to the decision.

[2planka]

I'm probably incorrect, but I fold here. Non-nut flush draw with 2 all in? I'd rather let them fight it out. The AsJs could be out there, the button could have something like QQ, or there could even be a set of 7's, J's, or 10's. I'm not liking the K high 4 flush against those. Monsters under my bed?

Edit: I'm basing this on how you played the hand up to this decision point.

[Hood]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm probably incorrect, but I fold here. Non-nut flush draw with 2 all in? I'd rather let them fight it out. The AsJs could be out there, the button could have something like QQ, or there could even be a set of 7's, J's, or 10's. I'm not liking the K high 4 flush against those. Monsters under my bed?

Edit: I'm basing this on how you played the hand up to this decision point.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a non-nut flush draw, straight draw, and two overcards. As OP says, more outs than you can count. But I think I'd fold this against 2 all-ins so early on.

[2planka]

Yes, I forgot to mention the "early" part. Still, I wonder if I'm still thinking too tight here. Interested to see more opinions.

[Jason Strasser]

I really don't like the min. raise. It really serves no purpose. &lt;/voice on&gt;Limp along, country road, to the place, you belong... &lt;/voice off&gt; (the flop)

On the flop, I think people who go with the check/call line are misplaying the hand. I am a big fan of the check raise all-in here. You are probably slightly ahead, and you can gain folding equity by making others make hard decisions. The problem is, since you min raised this hand, opponents may put you on a big hand and it could check through. That's not a horrible outcome, but it makes the play on the turn very hard if you miss. I'd check raise all-in.

As it stands, I think your decision on the flop is tough. It could've been made easier by not playing it so passively. I think playing scared of AJs and other hands like that is a classic case of "mommy, there are monsters under my bed!" You should really assume that you have the best flush draw.

I probably make the call.

[BigJohn043]

I am no expert, but let me take a try at this...

Either really raise the flop or limp, the min raise does no good.

I don't know what to make of the button's min reraise, but I would take it to mean he is clueless.

On the flop you should either bet the pot or look to check raise. So you check and the button makes a wimpy bet less than half the pot. You have to push here.

You don't and then MP2 does and the button calls. Note that if you pushed you could have likely isolate one of the two, probably MP2 who is first to act after you.

At this point you have lots of straight and flush outs, although some of them may be tainted. You could be facing TPTK, but more likely either a set, flush draw or straight draw. I wouldn't be surprised if someone has AXs. I think I fold it at this point and wait for a hand where I haven't been so passive...

[el Jefe]

Thanks for the input everyone. I'm now even more convinced I played it horribly on most every decision I had to make. I hate the preflop min raise (stupid 1BB raise button) and I probably should've bet out on the flop or c/r all-in. I agonized over the all-in call until the timer ran out and I folded. Given how I had botched the hand up to that point I still think the fold was ok, even though it turned out to be a mistake. Anyway, here's what happened.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="C00000">saw showdown</font>

BB (t785)
UTG (t565)
UTG+1 (t800)
UTG+2 (t800)
Hero (t800)
<font color="C00000">MP2 (t925)</font>
MP3 (t775)
CO (t710)
<font color="C00000">Button (t1100)</font>
SB (t740)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls t15, UTG+1 calls t15, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t30</font>, MP2 calls t30, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">Button raises to t45</font>, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls t30, UTG+1 calls t30, Hero calls t15, MP2 calls t15.

Flop: (t250) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks, <font color="CC3333">Button bets t100</font>, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls t100, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises to t880 (All-In)</font>, <font color="CC3333">Button raises to t1055 (All-In)</font>, Hero folds.

Turn: (t2285) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

River: (t2285) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t2285
<font color="green">Main Pot: t2110 (t2110), between MP2 and Button.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by Button (t2110).</font>
<font color="green">Pot 2: t175 (t175), returned to Button.</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
MP2 shows Qd Tc (one pair, tens).
Button shows As Jd (one pair, jacks).
Outcome: Button wins t2285. </font>

[AtlBrvs4Life]

I would have probably called here. The majority of the time, you have at least 15 outs. Probably more. You are getting amazing pot odds and you're going to more than triple up on this hand at least 50% of the time.

Looking at the results of the hand, you actually had more than 15 outs. You were about a 57% favorite to triple up after the flop against those two hands.

[NegativeEV]

I find a lot of value in Strasser's posts in general, and I track with the suggested play of limping preflop and check raising all in on flop. However, given the play as it did happen, I'm confused by the the last line of this post "I probably make the call". The two preceding all ins tells me that button probably has a set or two pair at least (coupled with buttons min-raise preflop which I could see as an attempt to pump the pot on a medium PP). If so, my 15 outs may not be good as a full house is possible. I'd discount my outs to 10 or so and would avoid making this call with less than a coin flip.

Strasser please let me know where my thoughts are off base here.

[Jason Strasser]

I said probably call, because I usually never put myself in a situation like this. I also said I'd probably call because chances are most of my outs were good.

If I knew one of my opponents had a set, I make this fold. However I don't think that 100% of the time someone will have a set in this spot. I wish I could run a few simulations, but twodimes isn't working right now for me. I am getting very good value on my call (~3:1). Even if one of my opponents had a set, you still wouldn't be very -EV.

This wasn't a great post, but I think mathematically the good choice is to call.

[Laomedon]

I think posters in this thread might have been giving too much credit to $10+1 SnG players on PP. I've played quite a bit of 10+1 and 20+2 SnGs on Party recently while playing ring games as a bit of a diversion and I've found the competition to be.. how should I put it.. lacking.

As was mentioned earlier you have perhaps as many as 9 outs to the flush plus as many as 8 to the straight, for all you know your King could be a clean out as well. Considering that one of my optimal strategies for these SnGs is to acquire a somewhat large-ish stack early on and sit on it until there are 3-5 players left, I certainly think going all-in here is the correct play.

I also agree with calling pre-flop as opposed to raising, this type of hand plays well multi-way. Indeed on the flop I check it as well with the intention of raising and perhaps winning it right there. When you see two all-ins you certainly should grasp this opportunity to triple up and easily take third place (at the very least). I'd like to reiterate the fact that PP SnGs at this level have plenty of brainless *censored* swimming around so a thoroughly defeatist attitude might be -EV.

[NegativeEV]

Thanks for clarifying. I'm struggling a little bit with this still. Even if I'm getting 3:1 pot odds and I'm only a 1.5:1 dog, I lay down in this situation given that this is a tounament and my whole stack is on the line. In a ring game, I think the call is right as the odds/math indicate, but in a tournament I think the pot odds vs. draw odds has a little different meaning given that you are out when you miss. As I mentioned in a previous post, I think I'm too conservative overall as my ROI is weak but my ITM% is strong as I have a lot of 3rd place finishes. This may be a place where I can improve by making these tough calls to get more 1st place finishes.

[NegativeEV]

This is a very good point. When I take a BR hit or a withdrawl I often move back to the $10+1 SnGs on Party, and I often make bad lay downs giving other players more credit than I should. I generally struggle on the $10 tables as I miss opportunities to make a tough play and triple up. More important than giving a sure path to 3rd, I think a triple through here results in a better chance for 1st which is what the aim should probably be.

[RoyalSampler]

I am wondering if this is a case where more information can be gathered by not raising. If I raise with KQ the only people that call will likely have me in trouble. Best I can hope for is JJ 1010 AJ. But if I check and noone raises. I can be very comfortable that if a Q or K comes up that I have TPTK. Sounds reasonable? Certainly less fold equity.

Sorry if this is a subtle highjack.

[ddubois]

Well, 2 of your 8 straight outs and 9 of your flush outs are the same card, don't double count them. I think it would be a mistake to play this hand as if the K or the Q might be good outs, or at the very least, consider them tainted and worth fractional value, say 1 out total. So I think you have to play this like you have 16 outs.

With 16 outs, you have a signifigantly better than 50/50 (roughly 64% with the 2/4 rule) chance to triple up. Is that worth the risk of busting? Given that you can always enter another SNG right away if you miss, I think it is, especially considering that we are tripling up here, not doubling up.

[poboys]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for clarifying. I'm struggling a little bit with this still. Even if I'm getting 3:1 pot odds and I'm only a 1.5:1 dog, I lay down in this situation given that this is a tounament and my whole stack is on the line. In a ring game, I think the call is right as the odds/math indicate, but in a tournament I think the pot odds vs. draw odds has a little different meaning given that you are out when you miss. As I mentioned in a previous post, I think I'm too conservative overall as my ROI is weak but my ITM% is strong as I have a lot of 3rd place finishes. This may be a place where I can improve by making these tough calls to get more 1st place finishes.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would agree with you--if you were only playing one tourny.
Just like in a Ring Game if you call and lose you rebuy, you can always play another tourny.

Think about it this way: if you triple up what is the probability that you'd finish in the money, versus if you fold.

Finally, one of the tricks I read about in previous posts is to decide, pre-flop what kind of flop you want to see. What flop would make you want to stay in this hand. This is a near-dream flop for you!