I want more feedback on this article

Jim Briers article in latest edition of CP.


Hand No. 4 ($20-$40 game): It’s a fivehanded game. You open with a raise under the gun with the A J*. Only the blinds call. There is $120 in the pot and three players.


The flop is A* 7* 3*, giving you top pair, decent kicker, and a flush draw. Both blinds check. You bet and they both call. There is $180 in the pot.


The turn is the 8-. Both blinds check, and you bet. The small blind raises and the big blind folds. What should you do?


Answer: Fold. Even in a shorthanded game, when the board flops all of one suit and you get check-raised on the turn, it almost always means you are up against a flush, especially with a third player in the hand. You have a draw to a flush, but it is only to the third nuts, meaning that if your opponent has a king-high or queen-high flush, you are drawing dead. When this is the case, you will go on to lose additional money when a fourth suited card appears at the river. If your opponent has two clubs and would play random cards from the start, the probability of one of them being the king or the queen is more than 40 percent, given that there are nine clubs unaccounted for. For math types, the calculation is straightforward. It is 1 – [(7/9) (6/8)]. So, about half the time, if he were just playing any two clubs, you would be drawing dead. But now consider the fact that most players don’t call preflop raises with just random cards like the 8 2, for instance. If he has two clubs, most of the time he will have the king or the queen."


dannyboy :o)

IMHO, This is terrible advice against all but the most predictable opponents (I am sure we can all think of a few).


the game is 5 handed. Anyone with an ace and a kicker of the suit could make this play, and this is the best way to play 2 pair or a set in many instances - you can knock out a draw behind you, adn get heads up against someone who may be draw-less. Wouldn't this be a temptiong way to play KQo with a draw - maximize the chances of winning with no showdown, at the cost a a fraction of a bet?


Let's not forget that a small flush would also play this way, to see if their hand is ruined on the turn, and prevent the 3rd player from drawing on the river.


With this raggedy board, a big ace might also do this with no draw.


Maybe I've been playing on Paradise too long, but I wold not fold this here. I did once years ago in a similar spot, only to find out I got bluffed. It does actually happen, despite what you may have read...

Jim Brier, whom I admire (considerably), is a very conservative fellow. His advice for the given situation emphasizes his conservatism. Logically, Jim is correct, the hand, in most instances will play as he describes. But "poker wise" he is giving up too much. If I played against Jim in situations like this I would raise the turn every chance I got. I would do the same to any player that was quick to toss his hand on a turn raise. In my opinion one should not automatically fold this hand on the turn. In fact I believe a fold is in order only against very predictable (known) players. Like Mason.


vince

Dan,


I didn’t have time to read the original thread so my thoughts aren’t tainted by what has already been said.


There are many opponents who would checkraise with the ace of the suit and a pair or even the dry ace of the suit if they perceive you as a tight player. A tricky player might also try the checkraise with the small flush, for which you have redraws to the jack. So whether to call or fold is very player dependent; however the math does help.


The math to use at the table is that it is going to cost 2 big bets to see the showdown. You will win 8.5 big bets if you hand is good (or makes a bigger flush) so you are getting slightly better than 4 to 1. There is only a very small subset of players who I could make this laydown against in my poker universe. So it is an easy call against most of my opponents. That being said, it might be an easy fold in a midweek game against an un-imaginitive retiree/semi-pro in Las Vegas.


Regards,


Rick

Let's not forget that a small flush would also play this way, to see if their hand is ruined on the turn, and prevent the 3rd player from drawing on the river


i think its bad for a small flush to check the turn.

IMO the problem with this article and with this column in general is that is doesn't go into enough depth on what considerations to make. Would folding be a better play than calling if:


1. There was a 90% chance your opponent had a flush.


2. You were drawing dead 80% of the time when your opponent had a flush.


3. The other 10% of the time your opponent is semi-bluffing with an Ace weaker kicker and will only bet the river if he hits his kicker.


There are many more possibilities that could be considered.