Odds of for playing "double runner runner" situations

[Derek in NYC]

This is my first post on 2+2, so pardon me if I'm not getting the posting protocol right. (I initially posted this in the wrong forum, but was advised to move it here.) My question is a general one about a situation I frequently encounter, namely, when is it right on the flop to call 1 bet if you are drawing to what I call a "double runner runner", meaning on the turn you might pick up a str8 draw, a flush draw, or ideally both (or your overcards might pair). But on the flop you only have the double backdoor draws. For example:

Suppose you are in late position and you call the BB with Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Now the flop comes:

10 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif (the latter two cards meant to represent rainbow garbage)

Somebody ahead of you bets, and some number of people (I dont know how many), call. Now it is up to you. Your essentially crappy hand can become a playable hand (but not a made hand) on the turn in several ways.

First, your Q or J could pair, giving you top pair with an okay kicker.

Second, you might pick up a /images/graemlins/spade.gif, which now gives you 4 to the flush, and its unlikely that with only one /images/graemlins/spade.gif on the flop, you're going to have a lot of people deliberately drawing to the /images/graemlins/spade.gif nut or second nut flush. So your draw--if you hit it on the river--is an okay one.

Third, you might pick up a K or 9 on the turn, creating the open end str8 draw for you. (And of course if you picked up the K /images/graemlins/spade.gif or 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif , you now have the openend str8 flush draw--an ideal situation, esp. if the K /images/graemlins/spade.gif is what comes up on the turn, because now you're drawing at the second nut flush if anything other than the A /images/graemlins/spade.gif comes up on the river... and if the A /images/graemlins/spade.gif comes you have the stone cold nuts!)

So if you want to count your outs on the flop, you have 21 ways to improve your hand on the turn (4 Kings, 4 nines, 7 spades (excluding the K /images/graemlins/spade.gif and 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif , 3 queens, and 3 Jacks). Now admittedly, some of your outs will require you to hit another out on the river (namely the str8 and flush draws, and you're about 4:1 against that possibility). Moreover, in most cases you will not be drawing to the nuts.

So with this lengthy preamble, here's the question: what are the situations when you're going to want to call that 1 bet? I realize the answer depends entirely on the size of the pot, your read on the table, the number of opponents, your position, etc., but I'd like some general rules of thumb. I really dont have much intuition for what to do in this situation other than I'd probably call if there's a lot of money in the pot, and I'm in very late position (e.g. at most 1 or 2 off the button.)

Follow-up question: How does your answer change if you didn't have overcards on the flop? In other words, instead of the Q /images/graemlins/spade.gifJ /images/graemlins/spade.gif, you were playing a medium suited connector like 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif?

[Bozeman]

A reasonable rule of thumb is that runner runner draws are worth somewhere between 1 and 2 outs each. Whether closer to 1 or 2 depends on what sort of action is likely on the turn (and river). Also remember to discount non-nut draws.

For your particular case, you might have as many as ~10 outs, but I would significantly discount them (to ~6) because the overcard outs are particularly tainted, and the flush outs aren't perfect.

Craig

[Derek in NYC]

Interesting idea valuing "runner runner" outs on a discounted basis. I suppose the idea is that the turn and river have to be viewed as dependent events, and thus the true value of the runner runner is the product of the probability of hitting your turn, times the probability of hitting your river out.

So to take the flush example, if the odds of the turn being a /images/graemlins/spade.gif are 10/47 and the odds of a /images/graemlins/spade.gif also falling on the river are 9/46, then the odds of a turn and river /images/graemlins/spade.gif are going to be 90/2162, or roughly 4%. So using the rule of thumb that 4% = 1 out, I agree that the runner runner flush is worth 1 out. (I know that independently, of course, the odds of the runner runner flush is about 23:1 against).

Now for the runner runner str8 the odds are actually worse, since I can no longer count the K /images/graemlins/spade.gif or the 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif as outs. So again, without going through the math, the value of the runner runner str8 (assuming you've already calculated the runner runner flush) is going to be 1 out at most, probably less.

So back to the decision at the flop--each of your runner runners are worth 1 out, plus your overcards of Q and J give you 6 more outs. So at best you have 8 outs, but as you said, you need to discount these outs substantially because the overcards may be dominated, and the flush runners will most likely not be to the nuts.

So I can now follow where your rule of thumb of 6 outs comes from. Wow! Very helpful, and I suspect that I have been substantially overvaluing these "double runner runner" situations, since 6 outs on 47 cards to come is not great at all.

Did I get the logic right?

[Lester Burnham]

yes i think you've got it and it's something i've wondered about...

and to take your e.g. further, say you limp late on button w/A /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif and the flop is:

K - J - 4 w/one /images/graemlins/spade.gif

this happens about 1.3 times a year....heheh