Who honestly flops two-pair with J2o??

[Haupt_234]

SB was a "fairly loose, over aggressive" player who put too many bets in with most of his hands.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="666666">6 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, Hero checks,

Flop: (3 SB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, SB calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (5.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 6.50 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 5.50 BB, won by SB.</font>
<font color="green">Pot 2: 1 BB, returned to SB.</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
SB doesn't show.
Outcome: SB wins 6.50 BB. </font>

Haupt_234

[BottlesOf]

Thanks for including the results in white.

Nice hand.

[Haupt_234]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for including the results in white

[/ QUOTE ]

You peeked, didnt you? /images/graemlins/mad.gif

Haupt_234

[Warik]

[ QUOTE ]
You peeked, didnt you? /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I did (couldn't resist) and now it makes it impossible for me to review your hand fairly because I already know what happens. Stop posting the damn results!

[MisterKing]

Seems there's a fair chance he has you at the turn... thus the call. Would you have called him down if the river bricked? If a mid-heart (9h?, 8h?) or something like that hit?

[Haupt_234]

[ QUOTE ]
Would you have called him down if the river bricked?

[/ QUOTE ]

That was my plan, which is why I did call the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
If a mid-heart (9h?, 8h?) or something like that hit?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how I couldn't call here. I didn't think he had a heart so I would surely call a river bet with a flush on the board.

Haupt_234

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I didn't think he had a heart

Why? He called your flop raise then bet out when the 4th heart hit.

[Haupt_234]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't think he had a heart

[ QUOTE ]
Why? He called your flop raise then bet out when the 4th heart hit.


[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Because he was overly aggressive and I thought he would have checkraised the turn if a heart came, not bet out.

Haupt_234

[lil']

Your turn and river play are inconsistent.

You call the turn thinking he is on a bluff, then fold the river when the king comes and wrecks your two pair.

But I don't think he is going to bet a bare king into you on the turn. If he has a king that he wants to show down, he's not going to bet the turn, he'll check it.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

If you trust your read, raise the turn and call one bet on the river.

[Derek in NYC]

Ok I'm no expert here, but why the flat call on the turn? By flat calling, you get no information, and unless you get a J or a 2 on the river, you know he's going to bet at you again and you're most likely going to fold.

If, on the other hand you raised on the turn, one of three things is going to happen. (1) He will fold, putting you on the nut flush when in fact he doesn't have a flush himself...maybe he's betting top pair top kicker or something; (2) he will raise, because he has the nut flush himself; or (3) he will call because while he has a flush, he doesn't like it because its a crappy flush (like maybe he was playing a suited connector).

Thus, if you raise, you can win in two ways. Either he will immediately fold to your bluff (#1, but granted unlikely), or he will check to you on the river (#3) in which case you check and hope your two pair is good (at least you get a showdown).

If you are reraised on the turn, you fold. However, the flat call on the turn seems to me to be the wrong move. Your call is getting crappy pot odds, and has virtually no chance of winning, as he will just bet the river again when you don't improve. (You are, after all, drawing at 4 outs--Jacks and 2s. Your odds of hitting either a J or a 2 on the river is something like 9:1 against.)

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Exactly. If he really believes this a bluff, the opponent can just as likely be making this play with something like 99 as a K or a better J.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Your odds of hitting either a J or a 2 on the river is something like 9:1 against.

10.5:1 to be precise.

[Derek in NYC]

I agree that if he were betting top pair, it would have been best for him to check-call, however the original poster described the player as being loose aggressive. I could easily see such a player calling the BB preflop with KX (or unfortunately with AX /images/graemlins/heart.gif also). So frankly it is difficult to put him on a hand. But I'm saying a raise on the turn at least gives you information about where you stand.

[Haupt_234]

I agree that I should have raised the turn. At the time, flat calling seemed to be the best option since I did put him on a K. But the logic behind raising that I got from all the responses makes a lot of sense.

Thanks.

Haupt_234

[Derek in NYC]

OK I'm impressed... did you look that up or did you know it memorized? I just try to use rules of thumb, namely I take the number of outs (assuming 10 outs or less), multiply by 4, then divide by 2, to calculate the odds at the river. So my "math" gives me 4 x 4 = 16 then 16 / 2 = 8%. So I just say 9:1 against. (Who wants to divide 92 by 8?) As a general matter, is this approach close enough for horseshoes, handgrenades, and holdem?

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
OK I'm impressed... did you look that up or did you know it memorized? I just try to use rules of thumb, namely I take the number of outs (assuming 10 outs or less), multiply by 4, then divide by 2, to calculate the odds at the river. So my "math" gives me 4 x 4 = 16 then 16 / 2 = 8%. So I just say 9:1 against. (Who wants to divide 92 by 8?) As a general matter, is this approach close enough for horseshoes, handgrenades, and holdem?

[/ QUOTE ]

you could do that or you could do it the easy way /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

46 unseen cards. 4 cards fill you up. so you're 42-4 to fill up. reduce that and you get 10.5-1

and why are you multiplying by 4, then dividing by 2? all you're doing is multiplying by 2, but you're taking twice as many steps to get there. and this is just a rough approximation, since multiplying by 2 is assuming that you have 50 unseen cards, rather than 46.

the easiest way of calculating odds is just doing "Card that don't help:Cards that help"