PDA

View Full Version : Odds question on "double runner runner" draws


Derek in NYC
07-01-2004, 01:01 AM
This is my first post on 2+2, so pardon me if I'm not getting the posting protocol right. My question is a general one about a situation I frequently encounter, namely, when is it right on the flop to call 1 bet if you are drawing to what I call a "double runner runner", meaning on the turn you might pick up a str8 draw, a flush draw, or ideally both (or your overcards might pair). For example:

Suppose you are in late position and you call the BB with Q /images/graemlins/spade.gifJ /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Now the flop comes:

10 /images/graemlins/spade.gif3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif6 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Somebody ahead of you bets, and some number of people (I dont know how many), call. Now it is up to you. Your essentially crappy hand can become a decent hand (but not a made hand) on the turn in several ways.

First, your Q or J could pair, giving you top pair with an okay kicker.

Second, you might pick up a /images/graemlins/spade.gif, which now gives you 4 to the flush, and its unlikely that with only one /images/graemlins/spade.gif on the board, you're going to have people deliberately drawing to the /images/graemlins/spade.gif nut or second nut flush. So your draw is an okay one.

Third, you might pick up a K or 9 on the turn, creating the open end str8 draw for you. (And of course if you picked up the K /images/graemlins/spade.gif or 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif, you now have the openend str8 flush draw--an ideal situation, esp. if the K /images/graemlins/spade.gif is what comes up, because now you're drawing at the second nut flush.)

So if you want to count your outs on the flop, you have 21 ways to improve your hand (4 Kings, 4 nines, 7 spades (excluding the K /images/graemlins/spade.gif and 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3 queens, and 3 Jacks). Now admittedly, some of your outs will require you to hit another out on the river (namely the str8 and flush draws, and you're about 4:1 against that possibility). Moreover, in most cases you will not be drawing to the nuts.

So with this lengthy preamble, here's the question: what are the situations when you're going to want to call that 1 bet? I realize the answer depends entirely on the size of the pot, your read on the table, the number of opponents, etc., but I'd like some general rules of thumb. I really dont have much intuition for what to do in this situation other than I'd probably call if there's a lot of money in the pot, and I'm in very late position (e.g. at most 1 or 2 off the button.)

BottlesOf
07-01-2004, 01:05 AM
You might have better luck in the probability forum.

Welcome aboard,

Bottles

Derek in NYC
07-01-2004, 01:09 AM
Thank you. I will cross post this question there, and consider the thread closed.