Jim Brier article in CP

"Hand No. 4 ($20-$40 game): It’s a fivehanded game. You open with a raise under the gun with the A J*. Only the blinds call. There is $120 in the pot and three players.


The flop is A* 7* 3, giving you top pair, decent kicker, and a flush draw. Both blinds check. You bet and they both call. There is $180 in the pot.


The turn is the 8-. Both blinds check, and you bet. The small blind raises and the big blind folds. What should you do?


Answer: Fold. Even in a shorthanded game, when the board flops all of one suit and you get check-raised on the turn, it almost always means you are up against a flush, especially with a third player in the hand. You have a draw to a flush, but it is only to the third nuts, meaning that if your opponent has a king-high or queen-high flush, you are drawing dead. When this is the case, you will go on to lose additional money when a fourth suited card appears at the river. If your opponent has two clubs and would play random cards from the start, the probability of one of them being the king or the queen is more than 40 percent, given that there are nine clubs unaccounted for. For math types, the calculation is straightforward. It is 1 – [(7/9) (6/8)]. So, about half the time, if he were just playing any two clubs, you would be drawing dead. But now consider the fact that most players don’t call preflop raises with just random cards like the 8 2, for instance. If he has two clubs, most of the time he will have the king or the queen."


In my experience, it almost always means I'm up against K*? with no flush, in a shorthanded game. I'm not folding this hand. Am I wrong?


dannyboy :o)

A*7*3* all one suit, turn was offsuit 8.

I would not fold here in a shorthanded game. No way. No how. If I were in the sb and held some crappy hand like A5, I might very well checkcall the flop and checkraise the turn. I would do this (rather than checkraise the flop) because (a) a club could could come on the turn which makes my raise less desirable (b) I get to see what the bb does on the flop (c) Turn raises get more respect meaning the chances of my opponent folding a better Ace or perhaps any hand with a singleton club draw go up (d) I could have the best hand and it simply pays more to checkraise the turn than to checkraise the flop.


So, if I think like that in the sb, I gotta assume that others may be thinking similarly. If so, I am not going anywhere with the AdJc in Jim's example when the sb checkraises the turn.

I would call the raise and payoff the river too.


Now, I only have about 50 hours experience playing the 5 max games on Planet. But, I think that you simply cannot go about folding in these situations. You will get slaughtered.


But in Jim's defence, I will say this. I think that he may have been talking about a situation where you are in a ring game which for a short period has become shorthanded (i.e. maybe a couple of guys are on dinner breaks and a couple of guys are lobbying or what have you.) You expect the game to get full again soon. In this situation, a fold may be okay because (a) your opponent may not have adjusted to shorthanded play and is in fact playing it like a ring game and would not pull a checkraise here without a doozie of some sort and (b) you don't have to worry that this fella is going to start taking advantage of your laydown tendencies.

i didnt read the article so a comment may not be correct. but in games where the players are aggressive they raise you here with a pair and flush draw or aces with a smaller draw sometimes. or what about two pair. it looks like you are getting more than seven to one right now so if y0u are against two pair the laydown is terrible and against a flush its closer and against all semi bluffs its a total disaster to fold.

but in games where people have what they look like then it may certainly be a different matter. it would be good if jim came back with what he meant as we always try to assume someone is talking about the same kind of game we are thinking about.

I would much sooner just check behind on the turn rather than bet with the intention of folding to a check-raise.

I'm pretty drunk right now, but I read this today at the club. If you make the mistake of bettong the turn, you should not compound it by fdolding, when raised.

Yes,


A fold is a disaster. Everyone read the article.


I don't fold here. How can you? Especially in a shorthanded game! I only commented on this play because I feel the advice is terrible. I never fold in this situation. Even if another suiter comes out, I've still got a big flush?!!!! At worse your up against a smaller flush, IMO.


Dan

Another correction, I think he or she may have flush on the flop.


But, If another suitor comes out, I wouldn't put my oppenent on the K* right away. Is my thinking flawed?


Dan

I find that I get raised here with a small flush.


Dan