Good bubble aggression or bad coin flip

[NegativeEV]

I'm trying to improve my bubble play through adopting the aggressive style I read about here on 2+2. After ~ 600 SnG's (small sample I realize) I'm at a weak ROI of just under 15% and I think lack of bubble aggression is a key factor as I finish 3rd much more frequently than 1st. Please help me clarify my thoughts on this hand:

20+2 PartyPoker SnG; four players left; blinds 25/50 (loose/aggressive game eliminated several players early):

SB: 1400 (Hero)
BB: 1400
CO: 2200
Button:3000

CO is generally tight/aggressive and has loosened up slightly during bubble play. He generally played premium hands up to 5 players left.

Button is loose/aggressive and pushes frequently with any PP, any Ace, and occasionally with only position.

Hero has 8,8 preflop from SB. CO bets 150 (3xBB), Button calls 150, Hero raises all in. CO calls, Button Folds.

My 8's held up as the CO showed A,Q which missed, but I'm not sure I like my play here. The reasons I made the all in raise are the following:

1.) Folding equity with tight player in CO.
2.) Slight folding equity with loose Button, and chance of facing just one overcard from this LAG.
3.) My tight table image should increase folding equity
4.) Blinds were about to increase and I was moving towards 10x BB with 100 unit BB.

As I thought about this play after the hand was over, I questioned my decision with the following thoughts:

1.) The CO was a TAG who would likely not attempt a blind steal without premium cards and a LAG to follow- he probably had a solid hand.
2.) I was likely a coin flip against either of the other players and could probably expect a call from one of the two already in the pot.
3.) IMO it is generally a bad decision to take the chance at a coinflip with 4 players left and a LAG who is actively moving chips (BUT, this is part of my problem with lack of aggression in this spot).
4.) The blinds were still small at this point and I could reraise to 300 or 400 and still have a stack to work with. This would allow me to see the flop cheaply and make a better decision (however, this would virtually guarantee that both the CO and Button would also see the flop, making it more dangerous).

Thoughts, criticism, and insults welcome.
thanks,
-EV

[Sam T.]

You've done a good job analyzing your own play. The one point I'd make is that with 88, I want to be the first one in. (As someone mentioned in another post, with AK you want to be the going all-in, not calling all-in, and I think this is true for 88.)

[Phil Van Sexton]

I don't like the allin reraise. You have little folding equity since it seems likely 1 or both big stack will call you.

The blinds are still low. Even when you move up 50/100 blinds, you still have plenty of chips. There is no urgency to go looking for a coin flip.

Re-raising less than allin would have terrible, so at least you made a strong play.

I would probably call here. I know "call" is a dirty word on this forum, but you can look at the flop for only 125 more. If an 8 hits, you will likely break someone.

If you insist on playing aggressively, you would call and then push allin on most flops (ie no Ace, 0 or 1 face cards).

[slogger]

It's not the easiest decision, but I think folding and letting the two big stacks tangle is the biggest +EV move here. I would assume, as you did, that 88 was ahead, but I'd be very concerned about the TAG CO holding an overpair, not just overcards.

As Sam mentions, above, better to be the first one into the pot (with this hand and most all others) when you're on the bubble. Be the initial aggressor rather than the caller or the blind defender. This applies even more when there has been both a raise and a call in front of you.

FWIW, I'm somewhat surprised (based on your description of of him/her) that the CO called the all-in. Maybe CO's not as tight as you gave him/her credit for /images/graemlins/wink.gif. I guess CO read you as desperate and potentially holding a dominateed Ace (which is another thing for you to worry about when you push here).

Glad it worked out for you, though!

[skierdude1000]

That's an easy fold on 25-50 blinds with your 1400 stack, no thinking needed.. let the agressive big stacks duke it out /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[TheDrone]

I prefer to just call here because of the implied odds if the flop brings an 8. If the 8 doesn't come, you can check fold the flop and still have enough chips for future aggression.

[RoyalSampler]

This was exactly my thought. In a ring game the call is a nobrainer due to the implied odds. Am I missing something here, it's only a small % of your stack with potential to just about take the chip lead. The $ +EV can't be too far from teh chip +EV to warrant a fold can it? And if it is, I'd love to see the calculation.