Paradise $5+$1 SNG vs $10 +$1 SNG

[aces_full]

I have been playing the $5 +$1 tournaments for about 4 months. I play a few a week and have around 60 under my belt. My statistics seem a little unrealistic based on what I have read here. My ITM is 70%, and 50% of my money finishes are 1st place. MY ROI is about 120%. Based on this small sample, it would appear I'm crushing these tournaments, or is it just a case of having too small of a sample size and these numbers are unsustainable over the long haul? I have seen ROI numbers between 20% and 50% posted, so I guess I'm just having a hot streak. In fact the month of May WAS particularly hot. I won almost every SNG I played all month long.

So now I'm thinking of moving up to the $10 +$1 tournaments. That $50 1st place is much more appealing, and the fact that the rake is only 10% as opposed to 20% at the $5 tables means I don't need to do as good to beat the rake.

Based on my $5 results, am I ready to make the jump? Or do I need to play 500 more $5 SNG's before I have any statistics that are meaningful enough to determine if I am really a winning player at this level?

How about the competition? I can't imagine that my opponents at the $10 tables would be much tougher than the $5 tables. If I play the same way will I still be able to consistently finish in the money?

Any comments appreciated.

[Sam T.]

Nice stats, but I think the consensus will be that this rate is unsustainable. But enjoy it while it lasts!

I've not played Paradise, but because of the difference in rake, you need to move up yesterday.

[SparkMan]

There's plenty of loose action at the $10+1 level at paradise. Never played $5+1 because of the ugly commission.

[woodguy]

Aces,
Nice stats. You are right, they won't last, but its a nice start /images/graemlins/grin.gif
I play mostly at Paradise and Party and IMHO there is no difference in play between the $5's & $10's.
Quit giving up the extra 10% rake and play the $10's.

regards,
woodguy

[Jason Strasser]

You found 2+2, you are ready for the $10 games.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
I have been playing the $5 +$1 tournaments for about 4 months. I play a few a week and have around 60 under my belt. My statistics seem a little unrealistic based on what I have read here. My ITM is 70%, and 50% of my money finishes are 1st place. MY ROI is about 120%. Based on this small sample, it would appear I'm crushing these tournaments, or is it just a case of having too small of a sample size and these numbers are unsustainable over the long haul?

[/ QUOTE ]

My guess is that it is a combination of

/images/graemlins/diamond.gif You really are crushing the games.

/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Your sample size is small, and you have been lucky, so your real edge is smaller.

I have a standard deviation of about 1.7 buy-ins per squareroot(tournanament). If your standard deviation is similar, then after n tournaments the 95% confidence interval on your ROI is roughly ROI +- 340%/sqrt(n), 120% +- 45% here.

The confidence interval on your ITM figure is about ITM+-100%/sqrt(n), 70% +- 13%.

For that to be the case, the blind structures must be very different from UB and Party and Stars, or the players are really bad. Perhaps posting the blinds and folding makes it into the money most of the time. Maybe half the players bluff all of the time, and the other half never bluff.

Or, perhaps you are not keeping careful records and you are misleading yourself, or you had a streak more rare than 1 time in 40.

I think the $5+1 games may be significantly softer than $10+1 games, despite what people say here. You lose about 9% ROI by paying extra rake, but I think weak opponents more than make up for that. You might not win as much per hour because of the lower stakes.

So, move up, and try the $10+1. If you crush those, too, tell us how.

[BradleyT]

The only difference between the $5's and $10's is that there's 9 morons at the table trying to win $50 for 1st instead of $25.


10 seat table assumed.

[slogger]

If you've got the bankroll (30 entries, or $330), which it sounds like you should (unless you've been pissing away those winnings in other games), then you should not worry much about a significant increase in the quality of the opponents at 10+1. Move up and pay half the vig.

But remember, there will be bad streak, parhaps many of them and perhaps loonger than your good streak. And if it coincides with your move up to 10+1, I'm sure you'll experience confidence issues. But I think if you mind your bankroll and don't wager what you can't afford to lose, then the 10+1s will be much more profitable over the long-term.

[Mikey2k4]

Move on up. The $10 games aren't significantly tougher, in my opinion. Heck, you could probably make a few stabs at the $20+2 and even $30+3 games, depending on your bankroll. I am NOT a good SNG player, but I'm confident that I can outlast half of the table.

Move up - you'll do fine.