Party 15 - JJ

[MarkD]

Sorry for spamming the forum with hands. I almost never post but since this is a new limit I was paying attention or something and found myself in situations I thought I needed to clarify. I think this hand plays itself but I'm curious what people think is the correct river play here.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="666666">4 folds</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: (7.66 SB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

Turn: (4.83 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls.

River: (8.83 BB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero...?

Final Pot: 14.83 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 14.83 BB, between Hero and UTG.</font>

[Tyler Durden]

Hero raises. His play ain't consistent w/ a hand that beats yours. AA/KK...nah. Probably AK.

[mplspoker]

What are you scared of? If he had AA he would of raised turn - if he had KK he probably would have folded on turn. Cap the river every time.....

[MarkD]

River recap:
UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG 3-bets, Hero...? Cap or call?

I question this because I have shown strength throughout the hand at this point and it has been my experience that most opponents don't like to get very frisky on the river which leads me to believe his 3 bet has to mean a very big hand.

[Senor Choppy]

His play reeks of AK. Cap the river. He might have KK here occasionally, but a vast majority of the time he's losing.

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
River recap:
UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG 3-bets, Hero...? Cap or call?

I question this because I have shown strength throughout the hand at this point and it has been my experience that most opponents don't like to get very frisky on the river which leads me to believe his 3 bet has to mean a very big hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

his turn bet could mean AK, or AQ. but also possible with a draw, like QhTh :O

his river 3 bet from him could mean AK still, but also broadway. i think it's close between calling and CAPPING. but in a live game, i'd back down right then and there.

kenny

[stoxtrader]

[ QUOTE ]
His play reeks of AK. Cap the river. He might have KK here occasionally, but a vast majority of the time he's losing.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed. mostly.

with him not capping pre-flop, I thikn that's enough to assume you are not against AA or KK. AK though I would also use the same reasoning, but some players don't cap with it as often so it becomes more likely. I put him on a high two-pair, AK or AJ.

I thikn you cap the river, if he has broadway so be it.

[steveyz]

Cap. Smells a lot like AK who probably puts you on AJ.

[MarkD]

Well, I put poster on AK but the hand played out strangely and in such a way that I wasn't confident he had AK but was confident that he had a very strong hand. In hind sight I think this is a hand that I should close my eyes, cap it, and see who gets the pot.

In the actual hand I just called the 3-bet and my opponent showed me QT for broadway. I didn't put any notes down on the guy but watched him until he left and he ended up being money in the bank.

This is one of my problems multi-tabling online. I find that I often get my player profiles one hand too late (after I've been in the hand with the guy).

[stoxtrader]

[ QUOTE ]
This is one of my problems multi-tabling online. I find that I often get my player profiles one hand too late (after I've been in the hand with the guy).

[/ QUOTE ]

one hand does not a profile make.

you have pokertracker I hope?

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
one hand does not a profile make.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I know. What I meant is that I usually start to really watch someone and develope a profile after I've been in a hand with them. Being in a hand with someone usually prompts me to focus on them and get to know there play because I was focused on them during that hand and am mad at myself for not knowing how my opponent plays.

[ QUOTE ]
you have pokertracker I hope?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but having just moved up I don't have many stats on my opponents yet and I generally don't spend much time playing through my hands learning my opponents. Does any non-pro, casual player, play through their opponents hadn to model them using PT or do you mainly rely on the stats that PT provides? If you create your own profiles by playing through their hands how long do you spend on it? I've mainly relied on the stats at the other limits that I have played.

[stoxtrader]

no way I look at past hands indivually. I just use the notes exporter for stats.

nothing you can do until you build your database up at a new limit.