Should I move up?

Okay, before I begin, I posted a response last night saying that I wanted to move up in limit to shatter my poker bankroll and put me out of my misery. That was said in jest, 100%.


Here's my dilemna...I play 9-18 mostly, with probably 25% of my hours at 15-30 or higher. I've only been playing poker seriously for about 13 or 14 months. I'm a fresh-out-of-school 23 year old kid, with a decent paying job that is secure. I could lose everything I own at a poker table, and it really wouldn't cripple me too much for too long. That said, I really do NOT want to lose everything I own.


I've played about 3 or 400 hours at 15-30, 150 hours at 20-40, and about 100 hours at 30-60 and 40-80. I've actually had better success at these games than at 9-18 games. I feel that my two greatest strengths are hand reading, and adapting my game to whatever style of table I'm playing at.


I'm trying to make a certain amount of money in a certain time (2 months). And, I'm running bad. REEAAALLL bad, for about 4 weeks now, though I don't think its effecting my play. I'm just getting no playable hands, and I'm paying off much less when my premium hands get snapped.


If I didn't have any immediate financial goals, I'd just sit and wait it out. However, given my current situation, I'm wondering if it would be wise to move up to 15-30 or 20-40 for the next two months, "just to see what happens". I cannot afford this in the long run, but if I lose a few thousand now, it won't cripple me.


The last factor in my decision is the cost of playing the games....9-18 at commerce is raked at $5/pot. Insane, period. If I play 15-30, it would likely be at Hawaiian Gardens, ($6/half hour), and 20-40 would be at either Oceans11 or Commerce ($3/pot and $8/halfhour, respectively).


The 9-18 games are much more volatile (in general), though easier to beat (and it includes a jackpot possibility, which equates out to a pipedream).


Your thoughts, advice, recommendations would be greatly appreciated. . .


Worm

>>And, I'm running bad. REEAAALLL bad, for about >>4 weeks now


I think you'd be better off moving up when

you're running good. For lots of reasons.


>> though I don't think its effecting my play.


Just about everyone plays better when he's

winning.

s

"I think you'd be better off moving up when

you're running good. For lots of reasons"


Why?


Money? Let's not consider that an immediate problem.


Confidence? Not an immediate problem, either.


If there are other reasons, I'd love to hear it. Also, given my current timetable, I'm not sure that me running well will occur when I want it to (i.e RIGHT NOW, DAMMIT! /images/smile.gif


Worm

Hard to answer not knowing what the 2 month timetable is for? How much money you need in the 2 months? Is putting the few thousand that it sounds like you have towards whatever it is you need the money for. Or do you need so and so amount and it doesn't matter whether you have a few thousand or nothing? If this is the case then i would say take the shot and play higher as even if you lose it you have an unlimited bankroll because you have a job. And the few thousand won't make a difference towards what you need unless you turn it into whatever amount you need.

As a rule, in trading futures or stocks, you always lose when you try to use the market to pay for something.


There is nothing irrational about it. Rather, because you have a specific need for the money, your utility for certain situations which merely offer the possibility of a win rises. In other words, winning only a little, breaking even, or losing a lot are equally worthless. So the most valuable play appears to be the one not which wins most often, but which offers the chance of winning a lot.


The problem is, if you lose a little on each over the first few trials, this strategy leads you to taking a larger and larger risk with less and less the best of it, as the bar gets further and further away.


The only way to pay for something is to wait and see if the market, by chance, gives you an opportunity to pay for it - or if it doesn't. You have to operate on the sucker's timeframe, not your own, and he may feel generous a day or a week or a year too late.


Or, if you try to speed things up, you become the sucker for someone else who has patience. I can't imagine whom I'd rather play against - and even lay odds for - than somebody who is using my action to try to pay for something.


Heck, where do you think fish come from?


leroy

I would stop borrowing money from loan sharks and/or dating girls who give you a deadline and minimum price for an engagement ring.


But since you are in such a pickle, your best strategy may be to increase your hours at the current game, or move to the game with the cheapest rake of those you mentioned.


You might consider moving to the 15/30 first, then you can move again, up or down, depending on your results over the next 2 weeks.


And almost everyone plays better when winning, even if their own play does not change. Others perceive a winner and loser differently, and most of the time the winning image is much better.


Good luck.


Dan Z.

The correct strategy, as always, is to play in whatever game your hourly rate is highest.


It is unnecessary to sacrifice expectation just to swtich between payout distributions if you have an irregular wealth-utility curve.


Rather, the correct straetgy is to get as high an expectation as possible by winning where your expectation is highest, and then transforming your payout at a roulette table or something.


In other words, by betting different combinations of horses at the race track, or different spots on the craps table - or something - I am pretty sure you can transform any expectation into any curve around it you want.


So play 3-6 all month and then, the morning you need twice as much money as you have, go double-or-nothing at the Pai-Gow table.


eLROY

It's a rare occurrence at this forum that I see everyone give the wrong advice.


But this is one of those times.


Running bad? It's all in the past. Forget about it.


If you're confident in your game, you're properly bankrolled, and you have an actual NEED for the extra money (not an ideal reason to move up, but it is what it is...), of course you should move up, if for no other reason than to get away from that pornographic rake at the 9/18.


You've mentioned several times that losing your stake wouldn't hurt you very badly either.


I wish I had your problems.

First, yes I think you should move up out of the 9-18. That rake is just too high. The 10-20 at HP would be better, and the new 12-24 game at the Bike sounds good too. Both have $5 per half hour collections.


If your bankroll is only $4000, it's going to be very difficult to play 40-80. You only have enough for one or two bad sessions. But with that much, you could take a shot at 20-40. Then if you win, you could parlay it into the higher limits.


Make sure you play during the swing and graveyard shifts, as that is when the games are the most profitable. Look for passive games.

Thanks Brett - the advice I was looking for...I've been decent in the past at game selection, but it's easy in L.A....most/all games are beatable at the limits I discussed, but I never thought about the finer points (i.e. look for passive games).


The bike now has a 12-24 game? Is it spread that often...I know that they struggle to get multiple 9-18's going, and 15-30 never happened when I used to frequent there, but 12-24 may have a chance. . .


I should give a couple more details...I'm striving to win buyins to a couple of WSOP events...if I don't get the money, it's nowhere near the end of the world. And I'm going to be unabl to play at all for most of March and early April.


I think that moving up to at least 15-30 is the thing to do. . . Thanks all,


Worm

Most people win their entries into WSOP events by playing satellites. These mini-tournaments run 24 hours during the series, and the game are determined by the following day's events. If tomorrow's tourney is NLHE, todays satellites are NLHE.


If the tourney entry fee is $3000, the satellite entry is $300. 10 players, the winner is paid in $500 chips that can be used to play in any tourney. If you win more chips than you need, you can sell them for face value. Sometimes deals are made in the satellite so the chips are split between 2 or more players.


You can play as many satellites as you want, and some players don't do anything else during the series. This might be your best shot at getting into these tourneys.


Also, I play in LA, too. Although most of the games are always beatable, the night games are more beatable.

eLROY wrote: "The correct strategy, as always, is to play in whatever game your hourly rate is highest."


This can't be right. For example, suppose you have $3,000 and your goal is to maximize your probability of having $10,000 two months from now. Your hourly rate might be highest in an aggressive 100-200 game that has a few fish in it. Suppose your expectation in this game is $300/hour. But your risk of ruin is too high to play in this game now -- you're much better off playing in a passive 10-20 game where your expectation is $25/hour.


On the other hand, if your objective were to maximize the probability of having $10,000 two days from now (instead of two months), then you would be better off playing in the 100-200 game rather than the 10-20 game.


I do agree with eLROY's view that at some point, the best way to achieve your objective could be by making negative-expectation wagers. For example, suppose that 15 minutes before your deadline for having $10,000, you only have $7,500. Now, the best way to achieve your objective might be to bet $2,500 on red at roulette and if you lose, make a second bet of $5,000. With this strategy, you have a 72.3% chance of reaching $10,000. There's realistically no poker game that will give you a higher probability of winning $2,500 in 15 minutes.


(My probability calculation is for American roulette, i.e. a 47.37% chance of winning each wager that pays even money. With the strategy I set out, you have a 27.7% chance of losing your $7,500, which means that your mathematical expectation for the strategy is negative [specifically, -$270].)

Brett -


I too usually play at night (or weekend days, but mostly nights). As for the WSOP...I won a satellite last year, had a blast, played in the 3K nolimit tourny, and busted out when some guy felt it necessary to play his AA against my KK. Whatthehell?


I want to go back, but I'm not sure how much time I'll have for satellites, and I'd hate to have to go NEEDING a satellite win in order to play. . .I'd like to go with something like $3600 to take a stab at a satellite or two, and if that fails, drop the 3 large for the tourny entry fee.


I'm 23, single, no expenses, so I feel like taking a shot at the moon. If I miss, well, then I'm right where I was 6 months ago, which is about as happy as a 23 year old could be.


Do you have any details of the Bike 12-24 game?


Thanks,


Worm

"20-40 would be at either Oceans11 or Commerce ($3/pot and $8/halfhour, respectively)."


from my albeit limited experience the oceans 11 game is considerably tougher than the LA equivalent.

Mike -


I too have a fairly limited experience in that game. I usually play the 8-16 (which is juicy), and move up to the 20 if there is a favorable lineup, which there often is. There is a relatively small number of players that play in that game, and at the right times, the game can be extremely profitable.


Worm

What is yer hurry? Give yourself the acid test!


You want to give yourself every available edge at the table, right?


Do it right.


You tell me that you can play 30/60. A 30/60 player should be able to regularly administer a 9/18 table a gealthy dose of ASS-WHUPPIN’…enough to add 300 BB to his bankroll. Can you do this? Prove it to me.


IMHO, the ONLY way you are going to know if you are good enough is to progress up through the limits. If you move up too early and suffer a few bad sessions, you are gonna ask yourself whether you were good enough or not. You could get emotionally scarred. Permanent tilt. Look at some of the lower limit railbirds.


Just like a pro boxer, don’t try to take on the upper ranks without paying your dues.


The US Armed Forces NEVER commits to battle unless they are reasonably sure they have the superior armament and force. You should, too.


Think of the accomplishment you can have by saying “I BEAT that limit!”


At each limit, accumulate 300BB of the next higher limit before you move up.

Don’t lose more than 30 BB in one session.


Learning to have patience and managing your bankroll is the real key to winning this game, IMHO.


( I am writing this peptalk as much for myself as I am for you…)


p.s. I have been reading your posts and think you will be a great player.

Jim -


Appreciate the post and encouragement, but I want to debate you on the "have patience, then move up" point.


In the 'long run' (i.e. the month of may), I'll be playing 9-18, period. Regardless of what I do between now and then, I am currently a 9-18 player. However, over the past year, I have beaten 9-18, 15-30, and 20-40 all at about the same clip (in the neighborhood of $15 +/- $1/hour). Given the cheaper collection available at the higher limits, and the somewhat tighter games, I feel as though my swings will be less, and it will be possible to make money a little more methodically. I realize that this will also give me a higher probability of going broke (for now).


My question is, you say only lose 30 BB per session. This seems low to me. I usually cut my losses at 2 racks (regardless of the game) per session, but have been known to go deeper than that. For instance, I've been stuck 1200 in a 9-18 game (65 BB), and came back and turned it into a win (albeit only a $50 win...a win is a win, though). Do others out there recommend a stop-loss of 30 BB per session?


Thanks again,


Worm

Actually, I got this advise from Annie Duke, you can find her article on Ultimatebet.com


She has some good advise. Mason and David also has excellent advise, I have read all of their articles on this site, as well as their essays books. Their stratagies for risk of ruin are the best I have found.


All I am trying to say is be aware of bankroll requirements, the risk of ruin is very real no matter how good you are. Ask any businessman. Especially the small business owner that has not much in assets. Please try to realize this one point above all else.


As far as the stomping on the lower limits before moving up, If I was confident that I could beat the higher games I would go for it…IF I had the bankroll.


But you say you are on a “bad streak” right now? Do you think it wise to increase volatility right now? How can you be sure you don’t have a leak somewhere? A poker player always wants to play when he has the best of it…I would never go higher until I statred winning again…just my opinion.


Maybe some of the full time pros can be more helpful.

Gummy,


Your posts could have been written about me and my situation, our situations are very similar. I am 25 and have been playing since March(started at the $.50-$1.00 Paradise tables) and now consider myself a $9-18 player but I sit in $15-30 games quite frequently as well. I have a decent paying full time job and went to a decent college. I keep pretty good records of my sessions and have logged almost 500 hours and am averaging $14/hour(I havent keep good records by limit, so this is a combination of $4-8, $6-12, $9-18, etc). I also have a stop-limit, but I usually bring only around $500 with me to the casino and have the $300 daily ATM limit just in case. I have no trouble getting up from the table when I am winning, but cant leave when I am losing(I guess this is why they call it "stuck for x amount"). I feel that I beat the $9-18 game pretty well and have averaged about 1BB/hr at $15-30 in the 50 hours I have played. For some odd reason, I cant beat the $6-12 game regularly.


Anyways, I have also been thinking of moving up, as I have beaten the $9-18 game overall for the past 250+ hours I have played it. But I also have just gotten through a rough dry spell where I had lost $3k playing 9-18 and 15-30 this past month, but have made it all back in the past week and a half. My advice is the same advice I got from a friend: It shouldn't matter the limit of the game; a good game is a good game. You sound like you are beating the games pretty well, so just use your judgement and not your gonads to decide whether the game looks favorable. Like you, the money isn't a big factor to me, if I lose it, I lose it. It will suck, but I have a job and the fun for me in poker is the strategy, not the gambling. For me, I try to start the night at a lower limit and slowly work my way up(it works cuz seats at the low limits are usually open first). Then, judging on the 9-18 table and how I am playing, as well as the lineups, I will take a shot at 15-30 or 20-40, but my stop limits are similar to yours. This has worked for me and helped me to smooth the transition as I have moved from $3-6 in April up to 9-18 and 15-30.


Anyways, sorry for the ramblings, I just thought your posts were interesting since they seem so similar to my situation, except I'm not looking to make a big score in the next couple months. Well, good luck!


DN

oops.....in terms of bankroll considerations, I do think Mason's widely accepted view of 300 BB is necessary tho...when I say a good game is a good game, this should be taken into consideration too.....even if there were 4 super-fish, I dont think I would have the stomach to sit in a 60-120 game or higher yet....

A 30/60 player should be able to regularly administer a 9/18 table a gealthy dose of ASS-WHUPPIN’…enough to add 300 BB to his bankroll.


I'm not so sure about this. This huge amount of money the house takes out of these games makes them hard to beat. And even if a good player could beat it for 300 BB, it would take time and Worm wants a quick score.


Personally, if I couldn't afford to play at least 20-40, I would get a job and work until I could. Especially if I was playing for a living I wouldn't want to play any lower than 20-40. But maybe that's just me. I don't enjoy low limit games.


Don’t lose more than 30 BB in one session.


Where did this come from? I don't see what difference it makes if you lose 50 BB in one session or spread it out over 2. Recently, I saw a seasoned LA pro go down $7000 in a 40-80 game, and leave a $3000 winner. If she stopped every time she was down 30 BB, it would take a long time to recoup her losses.

Actually, I got this advise from Annie Duke, you can find her article on Ultimatebet.com


I agree the point that a seasoned pro can lose more than 30 BB and come back to win.


Gummy isn't yet a seasoned pro (will get there I am sure)


Gummy is on a losing streak right now.


If the lower limit game is tough to beat for 300BB, and Gummy does in fact beat it for 300 bb, he will be financially AND EMOTIONALLY ready to dominate, no?


IMHO, rather than trying to win x amount in a fixed time frame, Maybe he should try to fix that losing streak/bankroll before moving up.

Gummy please read this post from RGP. Don’t wind up like this pro…


Message 1 in thread

From: ITALY1959 (italy1959@aol.com)

Subject: Sad story: Struggling poker "pro"

Newsgroups: rec.gambling.poker

View this article only

Date: 2002-01-07 04:31:21 PST


I am 62, retired after selling my business 2 years ago and live very

comfortably with a net worth around $5 million. I put aside $50K/year as pure

discretionary spending money for poker. I live about 1 hour from Foxwoods and

play nearly every weeekend in the $40-80 and $75-150 stud game there. I'm no

fish, play well and have had my share of winning and losing sessions. It never

ceases to amaze me of the "young pros" and I'm talking in their 20's playing at

these levels trying to exist...they say making a living...but they really just

exist. No these are not bookies or drug dealers just ordinary guys who think

they have found the "easy way" to make money. Maybe they start off with a bang

but inevitably they crash and burn and of course blame it on bad cards, bad

players, etc. I used to get hit up for money when I started playing after I

retired...but no...I don't lend money....no upside for me. Anyway there is onr

young guy 25 who plays with us every weekend and you can just tell he is

miserable. When he wins it is almost a relief and when he loses, he is on the

rail begging for a stake. We had coffee the other day up in the snack bar area

and I told him straight out" Look you're a young kid...you've got an

engineering degree ....put it to use...get a job, get the benefits of a 401K,

health, dental,medical, a steady income...start to BUILD your life from the

ground up. Well he looked at me like I was crazy. After all he WAS working. In

fact he was thinking of soon moving to Vegas. Move to Vegas I said? Look you

can't make it here...what do you think will be different in Vegas? He said that

he would make it.He was soooooo sure that he waas good enough...definitley in

the top 1% of poker players. I told him that the "poker cemeteries" are

littered with those top "1%". And if you struggle to exist now by yourself, I

cringe to think what may lie ahead if you ever get married and have kids to

support. But what did I know...I'm just some rich old guy who plays for

fun...sometimes winning sometimes losing. Yes I said....but I worked to GET

rich and now I can enjoy my life. Do you enjoy yours? He looked away for a

second and I thought I had hit home home. But no...he said "I'll make it.I'll

take the money." Well I really hope he does but I wouldn't bet on it. By the

way.....as we finished our coffee he hit me up for a loan! What I said...but

your'e a pro! Don't worry "you'll get the money!"

Nice, sound wisdom, but I'm not too sure it is applicable....I'm not about to quit my job. Period. End of story. I love my job. It is very secure. I do research physics...its a challenge that I love.


Last year, I went to the WSOP. I was living off of a credit card at the time. I have since payed off a fairly enormous visa bill, caught up on student loans, thrown a chunk of change into the stock market....but here's the problem. The WSOP is damn cool, and I wanna go again. Vowed not to live off of credit cards anymore, I need the cash. I'm not going to sell stock to play cards (period, again)...I'm (this sounds funny) going to play cards to play cards. I don't borrow money to gamble, and I won't.


The 'risk of ruin' is very real, I understand that. I have easily have a 9-18 bankroll, but don't have a 20-40 bankroll....my dilemna is do I move up and increase the chance of 'ruin' (in quotes because it won't be ruin...it will just be a temporary setback), or do I stay where I am and hope.


The good news is the bad streak seems to have ended...I've won my last two session, I got AA for the first time in 30 hours of play, I flopped my first set (that wasn't a victim of set-over-set), and I'm still convinced that one of these days a flush will come my way (no proof that this will happen, just a hope and a dream, at this point).


I'm still treading water right now, playing 9-18 and 8-16, but everytime I walk into a casino, I go check out the 15-30 and 20-40 games. . . and think.


Thanks for the help, advice. It is much appreciated. . . I don't have all of the answers, but I want 'em!!


Worm