Brier Bluffs Again

And, up until now, I didn't think he bluffed at all. If I ever play with him, I'm going to have watch him closely. /images/smile.gif


$10-$20. You are on the button with AcTc. There are 4 limpers in front of you and "to vary your play" you raise. [I raise every time here.] Everyone, including both blinds, calls. Seven players.


Flop is Kh-9c-8c. Everyone checks and you bet. There are 2 callers.


Turn is a blank, the 2d. Both opponents check, you bet, and they both call again.


River is the 8d. Again both opponents check.


Jim advises to bluff here because "with two opponents, your ace will most likely not be strong enough to survive a showdown, and it is worth another bet to try to get a player holding middle pair or a smaller pair to fold."


To me, there's no percentage in betting. If both opponents are on a draw, my A-T is good. If they have a 9 or a weakish King or pocket pair, and have been calling all the way, I'm pretty sure they're gonna call me again, especially with a board that features an unfulfilled flush draw/straight draw flop and the pot so big ($250 if I bet).


I know the bluff doesn't have to succeed to often to be profitable, but I can't see it working very much here.

I agree with you. A bluff is pointless. You beat any flush draw except one containing the 2c, you beat any straight draw, and anybody with a K, 9 or 8 is going to call you.

Since no one bet or raised the flop, a K isn't likely. But you are looking at the game as an LA player and Brier is talking about the 10-20 at the Mirage, which is so tight that a bluff on the river might succeed.

I'm with you preflop. Raising there is critical, as David pointed out a few weeks ago.


On the river, he's getting 11.5:1 on the play. Will betting win him the pot an absolute 9% more than checking? Seems close to me. The pot's big enough that some weaker players will gamble for the set on the turn but lay down on the river, so a bet may well take out hands like 44 in addition to bizarrely played AJ's. Interesting that a player with a 2 is typically more likely to call: he "hit" his hand and is engaged, while the guy with 44 and a prayer missed and wants nothing but out. I wouldn't expect any 9 or K to lay down though.


Of course, it helps to be Jim Brier. Against him I would fold without a second thought. Good for him.

Several good points, Matt. I know of Jim Brier, and we've "spoken" over the internet. But I wouldn't recognize him if I saw him, so the fact that he is Jim Brier might not be relevant here.


I like your point about the person who "hit" his deuce feeling psychologically more committed to the pot than the person who missed hitting his pocket pair. I wonder if anyone has ever studied calling frequencies based on this factor. I do think it's very unlikely anyone played a flush draw that included a deuce however.

Good point, Brett. I should have said if they called this far, they're going to call on the river, in the game I play in in L.A.

Brett,


What sort of hand(s) (played at the Mirage) could call the turn when a total blank comes, check when the board pairs on the river, beat ace-ten, yet fold to Jim's bet on the river?


Regards,


Rick

I like Jim's column and I think it is one of the most worthwhile columns in Card Player but I have a problem with his "cookbook" advice. A much better approach IMO would be to discuss the factors that are involved in determining whether or not a bluff is positive EV.

Since you obviously think there aren't any, why don't you tell me about your experiences in these games and explain why not?

Tom:


I believe Jim is in Tunica these days, so when he comes back it would probably be instructive to pose the same question to him and see his reasoning behind the advice.


Regards,


Ivan

I asked you first /images/biggrin.gif

Q9


/images/glasses.gif