Jim Brier Bluffs

As far as I'm concerned, Jim Brier is the best columnist writing about poker today. His columns deal with real hands and real situations, he describes the situation clearly, he gives his suggested play and backs it up with reasons.


In the January 4 Card Player, Jim's article is entitled bluffing. I have questions about 3 of the hands he writes about. I'll talk about one here, and the other two in separate posts.


$20-$40 game:


You are in the big blind with AhKs. A middle position player limps, another middle position player raises, and everyone else folds to you. You call, as does the first limper.


Flop is Jh-7d-3c. You check, limper checks, preflop raiser bets. You call, limper folds.


Turn is Js. Jim advises to bluff here.


Disregarding the play before the turn (which I don't like either), I don't see how a bluff can work here. If I'm the preflop raiser, I'm thinking: he didn't bet or check-raise on the flop, he doesn't have a jack. The second jack further reduces his chances of having one. He didn't reraise pre-flop, so he doesn't have a big pair. With a flopped set, he'd wait to check-raise me here. I'm going to put him on a 7 and raise him out.


What am I mising here, Jim?


Jim adds that the conforntation of A-K vs. A-K is "common" in hold 'em. No doubt we see it more often than we see confronatations between 7-2 and 7-2 because people play A-K more than they play 7-2, but is it really that common?


BTW, we miss you here, Jim.

I would re-raise pre-flop.


1) You probably have the best hand. The original raiser could have a number of hands. AK-AT, KQ, AA-88, KJs and some others. He raised from middle position after another middle position limper so he is not marked with a great hand. The only hands you fear are AA and KK, and you dominate many of those hands.


2) Your making the limper pay to play what is most likely an inferior hand here.


Raising is huge +EV play here.


Since he didnt raise pre-flop, I would definitely raise on the flop. You have a chance to make the original limper call 2 cold. Unless he has a Jack, he is probably gonna fold to that kind of heat considering it could get re-raised behind him.


As to the original post, I dont like the bluff. The limper could have a Jack since there aint many draws out there, and I cant imagine the original raiser folding an over-pair here.

"I would re-raise pre-flop."


Me too.


"I would definitely raise on the flop."


Me too.


"I dont like the bluff. The limper could have a Jack"


Limper folded on the flop. The recommended bluff was on the turn, after he folded.

Sheesh. You guys sure do raise a lot. And they say I'm aggressive.

Andy,


Apparently I am still clueless as to what the word "bluff" means. If I were to play the hand like Jim, and then bet out on the turn, the LAST thing I would call that bet is a bluff.


Tommy

First of all, reraising preflop seems like a must here, if for no other reason than to punish the limper.


But as for the bluff on the turn, I think the possibility of a check-raise bluff should be looked at, depending on the quality of the player you're up against.


If the raiser has an underpair to the jacks, he could easily let it go now. AK? He could easily let this hand go as well. But if he calls you down and you check down the river, the possibility exists that you'll be splitting the pot, which means of course that unless he's holding AA or any jack, the good outweighs the bad.


I think he'll let you know if you're beat on the turn. I'm sure he can't 3-bet a check-raise on the turn with less than a jack, so a laydown might be in order there.

The flop is so raggy it practically screams for a check-raise with nut-no-pair, since you didn't 3-bet preflop. I prefer calling out of position preflop and check-raising the flop. You will push the raiser off TT-88 and probably the AK-AJ/KQ/etc. hands too. If he 3-bets me, I call and hope to hit my dubious 6-outer -- but if I hit the ace, I'm check-raising again and leading the river.


What do you think? Am I a maniac?


This can all get very mucked up by the limper. If he has any synapses firing at all and he cold-calls two bets, I'm giving up on the pot (unless I turn a pair).


I agree strongly with Andy that the bluff here looks a lot like a bluff. Bluffs that look like bluffs tend not to work. If I'm the preflop raiser in Jim's problem and I'm holding AK, I may very well raise the turn and check the river.

Terrance,


I think you can play it both ways pre flop but your play (with the follow on checkraise) has lots of merit.


The follow on turn bet by Jim when the board pairs the top card works much better if Jim also bet the flop. I think betting the turn (after checking the flop) might work a *little* better when the middle card pairs. Then it might appear that Jim pealed one off with middle pair and an overcard and was now betting for value.


Regards,


Rick