"Genius" or "Super-Genius"

The game is 15-30 holdem. A middle posiiton raise and 3 callers to me in the bb with 67 of hearts and I call. Flop is 672 all clubs. Check, I check, original raiser checks, check, and button bets. Sb calls. I check-raise all fold to button who calls and sb calls. Turn is Q of clubs. Now there is 4 clubs on board. Sb bets out. What do you do?


I'll give you a little backround on my opponents. Sb is a wannabe pro struggling to make it. Probably been playing poker for a couple of years or so. His weaknesses are he plays too many bad hands, calls to much on the flop, makes too many sensless bluff bets, and will make somewhat big laydowns on occasion. I believe he prides himself on these laydowns. And I have been playing with him for the past few months. His perception of me I would guess is that of a very solid pro and he fears my bets and raises as he sees me as somewhat of a rock. Other opponent is a tourist and new to the game not much info on him except he is playing too many hands and is not afraid to bet without a very strong hand. But certainly not a maniac.


By giving the extensive description of my opponent some may guess what i did but i thought it would be unfair to not give this info of the player. Results and my thoguths will follow. All responses welcome.

If I were the small blind, I would have bet the Ac or Kc into this flop. So his club, if he has one, is probably on the smallish side; a raise might get him out, but you've still got to worry about the tourist who bet the flop. Plus you had already shown strength on the flop, yet he's leading into you now.


If I understand the action correctly, the first player in had raised, so I think I would have bet the flop.


Anyway, my guess is you raised, hope it worked out.

The SB would be wise to bet the Ac on the flop, and as Andy says, perhaps even the Kc. Moreover, if he had the Ac, he would likely NOT bet here, but would go for a check-raise of you (the flop check-raiser). Moreover, if he has the Kc, given your description of him, he MAY lay it down to a raise.


But, you have the tourist behind you. If a solid player, you would likely have expected him to 3-bet the flop with the Ac. If he's worth his salt, he's going to be hardpressed to call 3 bets (two on the turn, one on the river) with less than the nuts, should you raise.


Now, where does that leave you? You are getting 9:1 immediate pot odds on an 11.25:1 shot (I think this is the right number, if you are behind. See, technically, there are 46 unseen cards at this point, right? But, if you are behind, it stands to reason that ONE or more of the cards in SB's hand is a club, and thus NOT one of your 4 outs to fill up).


If the tourist is going to call, and you can get one bet on the river (perhaps 2 or 4, but unlikely), then you have implied odds in the region of 12:1.


So, what are we left with? You are fairly convinced that a raise will win you the pot right there, so you raise. My guess is that it did win you the pot right there.


Now, my biggest question would be: what happens if the tourist calls two cold, or if the SB calls the turn raise.


Lets say a blank lands on the river...do you bet or not? If they put in 2 bets on the turn with a flush (i.e. an unimprovable hand), then they won't lay it down on the river, so a bet would be wasted.


However, given your description of the SB, he may overthink him/herself enough to play a flopped set this way....they wanted to raise the turn when a blank falls, but are befuddled when another club comes. This is unlikely, but certainly not unheard of. They WILL put in 2 on the turn without a flush, but will QUITE POSSIBLY fold on the river to another bet, SO YOU SHOULD BET in order to take it down with the second best hand.


That's more than you wanted, I'm sure. Hope it worked out...and I also hope that the tourist didn't have QQ!!


Worm

Andy and GummyWorm are correct I raised. The button folded fast, as did the sb. And by the way the sb folded without even thinking i'm pretty sure he had no diamond whatsoever and was taking a shot that nobody had a club. Which was my gut feeling anyway. My guess is my 2 pair was still the best hand. There were a couple reasons why I chose to raise in this spot. 1) As you both said the way he plays this hand does not look like the nut flush as he would have played it a little stronger. So I may get him to lay down a smallish club, maybe even a decent one like the J or even the k. Especially knowing he makes laydowns and sees me as a rock. As he does not realize i do this to him and others from time to time taking advantage of my image. Especially when my gut tells me they are weak! My guess of his hand is either smallish club or total bluff(most likely the total bluff). Like maybe he had bottom pair and was hoping to make 2 pair on the turn, then saw the opportunity to try to steal the pot here hoping we couldn't call. 2) If i am correct in my thinking of the sb's hand then a raise may get the button to lay down a bunch of mediocre to even good clubs, maybe even the k and win me the pot right there. I don't give him the A of clubs i think he would have reraised on the flop.


GummyWorm asked what would i have done had the button called the turn raise. I'd hope to fill up on the river, if not i check and almost certainly fold. For him to call 2 bets on the turn he must have a club, and probably the ace and was slowplaying the turn. A set is possible but not likely as i think he would have given more action on the flop. Had the button folded and the sb called the turn i would check the river behind him unless i fill up. If he can call the turn he will payoff the river. His most likely holding will be a middle club. A set would be possible but much less likely so i would not try another bet on the river.


Would anybody have called the turn in this spot? Anybody fold? I asked a friend of mine who's opinion i respect greatly and he said he would have just called the turn. Liked my play but said he would have went this way. As I would have been correct to draw to the full house on the turn anyway. And don't get crushed if the button or sb have the Ace of clubs. As i would now be paying 3 bb to see if i fill on the river if i raised and get reraised. And if he is bluffing and the button folds plan on calling the river even unimproved to try and pick off the bluff. I considered this too. But felt the fact that your in a position to win this pot right now on the turn where anybody without the one card in the deck(the Ace of clubs) will be very hard pressed to call the turn raise. And i lose the same amount had i just called the turn and river and he showed me a mediocre club. As i would have checked the river unless i filled up. But have a good chance of him throwing a worse club away.