Worthwhile bluff or $2 down the crapper?

[SofaCoach]

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="666666">4 folds</font>, Hero calls, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, BB checks,

Flop: (3.50 SB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB bets, UTG raises, Hero calls, BB folds.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG bets, Hero calls.

River: (6.25 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 8.25 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 8.25 BB, between UTG and Hero.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by UTG (8.25 BB).</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
UTG shows Kc Ts (two pair, kings and tens).
Hero shows Ad 3d (one pair, nines).
Outcome: UTG wins 8.25 BB. </font>
When UTG checked the river I thought maybe he missed his flush draw too and tried to pick up the pot. The pot was giving me approx 6:1 at the time so will this bluff work one time in six?

[L0QTiS]

I don't think I'd try to bluff with that board. There's just too many possibilities and the only thing you're going to get to fold is a busted draw.

Also, I'm not an odds wiz so correct me if I'm wrong, but I'll go out on a limb and say that I think pot odds are thin on the turn call given the board has already paired and a Kd probably would hurt you as much as help. Just a thought.

[HajiShirazu]

Consider a raise on the flop. Obviously it wouldn't work here but occasionally you can get second or third pair to fold on the turn and win with no showdown.
If UTG has a busted flush draw, which is the only thing you can beat, why bet? You have an ace and will win the showdown anyway.
This is one of the bluffs that usually never works. The check on the by UTG on the river says, "ok, I'm afraid of the queen, but I'm calling just to see if you have it."

[cold_cash]

I'll vote for down the crapper.

I don't think you're going to make a better hand fold, and if he's got a busted draw you're going to win anyway.

With that board and a raise on the flop, I would guess that it hit him somewhere. It's possible he was raising with a flush draw, but I think most of the time in this exact situation it's at least bottom pair or an underpair. (Especially considering that you have two diamonds in your hand.)

[Zetack]

As a bluff it's a bad move.

If he's got a busted flush you don't need him to lay down cause you beat him.

It's hard to see what part of the board he could have that he's going to lay down for one bet. So the only things your "bluff" could move him off of is a pure bluff of his own. And there aren't a lot of bluffing hands he could have that you don't already beat. Basically just A-8 through A-4.

So I save my money here.

[SoCalPat]

Heads up on the end and against an opponent who raised the flop, there's gotta be more in the pot than 6 BBs for me to even attempt making a play at the pot.

This is only a good play if you're successful more than once for every three times you try it. At these levels, that's impossible (and only a fool would fold 2 pair here in a heads up situation for one bet -- even with this board). Save your money.

[blackaces13]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought maybe he missed his flush draw too and tried to pick up the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

My vote's for crapper. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I'm not an odds wiz so correct me if I'm wrong, but I'll go out on a limb and say that I think pot odds are thin on the turn call given the board has already paired and a Kd probably would hurt you as much as help. Just a thought.

[/ QUOTE ]
With 8 clean diamond outs and the overcard ace the turn call is fine. Don't forget also that it is usually safe to assume that you will collect another bet most of the time when you make your hand on the river.

I agree with everyone on the bluff...poor timing. It certainly looks to me like the opponent is afraid of the one card straight but is calling anyway. I can't think of many better hands that would fold here.

[L0QTiS]

[ QUOTE ]

With 8 clean diamond outs and the overcard ace the turn call is fine. Don't forget also that it is usually safe to assume that you will collect another bet most of the time when you make your hand on the river.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ah! I neglected to consider the Ace - with 3 extra outs, this looks much better. I suppose a baby flush would be a better example of my concerns but that doesn't apply.

[SomethingClever]

3-bet the flop, check/call the turn, check/fold the river.

Am I wrong?

[nothumb]

I think the flop re-raise is marginal but I would probably do it as well. If it gets capped you're not very happy, and just calling gives you a decent ammount of hope BB will come along. I'm surprised he folded. While I would probably 3-bet, the more I think about it I wonder if just calling would be good. In this case BB folded but usually he won't.

I'm open to discussion on this one.

NT

[chief444]

With position and the Ace overcard I'd be more inclined to 3-bet.

[rjc199]

if you thought he missed his draw why did you bet, you were going to win anyway. He only calls with a hand that beats yours. Check it through.