Chip & Chair (looking to double up) or Aggression?

[TJD]

I'm not proud of this but ......

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (7 handed)

MP2 (t1555)
CO (t1835)
Hero (t455)
SB (t1225)
BB (t1455)
UTG (t980)
MP1 (t495)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO folds, Hero raises to t455 (All-In), SB calls t405, BB folds.

Flop: (t1010) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t1010) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t1010) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t1010

Results in white below: <font color="white">
Hero shows 4d 2c (three of a kind, twos).
SB shows Ac Kc (one pair, twos).
Outcome: Hero wins t1010. </font>

As a player new to SnG's I am trying to get the tactics right but I have a long way to go (obviously /images/graemlins/smile.gif) My stack is low here not because I am loose early in a tournament. I have only played 2 hands; AKs and JJ so far but had to get away from them.

My thinking(?) here was as follows.

1) With such a poor stack,I am not going to get back in good shape just on the basis of blind stealing; I will need to double up somewhere BUT I could be blinded out with this chip &amp; chair approach before I get a decent hand.
2) Neither of these blinds seemed particularly tough and had folded to other players PF raises.
3) Their stacks were also of a size where they would not want to lose 400+ chips
4) In 2 hands time, the blinds would be 100/200 and it is then much more likely that a BB will call my all in raise if I am stealing.
5)There will probably be fewer chances to steal again since it is more likely that folks will get aggressive when the blinds are bigger just out of the need to survive
6) If I get away with this steal then I will have slightly more power if I do get a chance to steal later. Also, if I get a chance to double up then doubling 600 will put me back in better shape than doubling 450.

So in summary, I know I will have to double up at least once but this seemed like a decent chance to survive a little longer until I could get a hand with which I could reasonably expect to double up.

Balancing all this I decided that it was time to put my tournament outcome in the lap of the gods and pushed.

I see advice here that you should be pushing with A, B or C but what if it does not come? How should the balance between just sitting there waiting for a half decent hand and being aggressive be judged. I would appreciate your help.

TYIA

Trevor

[Hood]

[ QUOTE ]

As a player new to SnG's I am trying to get the tactics right but I have a long way to go (obviously /images/graemlins/smile.gif) My stack is low here not because I am loose early in a tournament. I have only played 2 hands; AKs and JJ so far but had to get away from them.

My thinking(?) here was as follows.

1) With such a poor stack,I am not going to get back in good shape just on the basis of blind stealing; I will need to double up somewhere BUT I could be blinded out with this chip &amp; chair approach before I get a decent hand.
2) Neither of these blinds seemed particularly tough and had folded to other players PF raises.
3) Their stacks were also of a size where they would not want to lose 400+ chips
4) In 2 hands time, the blinds would be 100/200 and it is then much more likely that a BB will call my all in raise if I am stealing.
5)There will probably be fewer chances to steal again since it is more likely that folks will get aggressive when the blinds are bigger just out of the need to survive
6) If I get away with this steal then I will have slightly more power if I do get a chance to steal later. Also, if I get a chance to double up then doubling 600 will put me back in better shape than doubling 450.

So in summary, I know I will have to double up at least once but this seemed like a decent chance to survive a little longer until I could get a hand with which I could reasonably expect to double up.

Balancing all this I decided that it was time to put my tournament outcome in the lap of the gods and pushed.

I see advice here that you should be pushing with A, B or C but what if it does not come? How should the balance between just sitting there waiting for a half decent hand and being aggressive be judged. I would appreciate your help.


[/ QUOTE ]


You contradict yourself here: 1) you say you need to double up (so I presumeyour looking to get called), but then continue to say how you think you may steal the blinds.

Obviously if you are looking to double up and get called, this is the second-worse hand to do it with. You've got 6 hands to go, and your likely to get something half-decent to go heads-up with.

If you are looking to take down the blinds, then this has got a good few things going for it that you say: all folded to you, your read on blind players, the last chance you'll have with stealable blinds, the short stack of the blinds. If your read was correct - that you'd get a fold most of the time - then you just got unlucky you ran in to AK. Your still not that much of a dog (http://twodimes.net/h/?z=380577).

[Phill S]

i computed the cards, simulated it to a quarter mill and it says you were getting 32% and change.

im not a huge fan of pure maths like this in tourney situations, but if you believe they fold a fifth of the time this move then becomes profitable right?

anyway, id say it wasnt too bad, but i wouldnt of done it. as hood say, you had plenty of hands to play till you were forced to tank it, but all credit where its due.

out of interest, i dont think you said where you placed...

[TJD]

I think the maths says they need to fold 26.4% for 50% overall to me.

I obviously did not work that out at the table; I just had a gut feeling they folded too often.

With luck like that I obviously won the SnG /images/graemlins/smile.gif. I needed some more luck later on of course but that is a "given" in these comps.

Interestingly, I had to be very careful from this point on. I had been fully exposed as a complete maniac who will raise with complete trash. However, when I was again at the point where I felt I had to raise and later in the final stages when I had to raise all in often due to the size of the blinds, people were STILL laying down. It just shows the benefit of aggression. Unless you have a pretty decent hand, calling a raise, even from a loose maniac, is extremely risky. Even maniacs get AA at times!

Thanks for the reply

Trevor

[TJD]

Thanks for taking the time to reply.

[ QUOTE ]
You contradict yourself here: 1) you say you need to double up (so I presumeyour looking to get called), but then continue to say how you think you may steal the blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think later in your post you saw more what I was getting at.

Yup, I KNOW that doubling up and stealing are different and they need different hands. However, I was trying to steal these blinds in the hope that I could survive long enough to get a hand to double with /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I decided to risk aggression and perhaps get called with my trousers down in order to maintain my stack.

My initial post was whether this is the wrong approach when my stack is so low. Should I just sit and wait and HOPE I get a good hand for doubling?

Trevor

[Hood]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for taking the time to reply.

[ QUOTE ]
You contradict yourself here: 1) you say you need to double up (so I presumeyour looking to get called), but then continue to say how you think you may steal the blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think later in your post you saw more what I was getting at.

Yup, I KNOW that doubling up and stealing are different and they need different hands. However, I was trying to steal these blinds in the hope that I could survive long enough to get a hand to double with /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I decided to risk aggression and perhaps get called with my trousers down in order to maintain my stack.

My initial post was whether this is the wrong approach when my stack is so low. Should I just sit and wait and HOPE I get a good hand for doubling?

Trevor

[/ QUOTE ]

Then go with your read. From what you said, you had a good chance of taking down the blinds, and this is a great place to try it.