Getting the implied odds for a set

[UncleRemus]

Been at the table for about 25-30 hands. This was the first raise I've seen from this guy. On the flip side, I have a VERY aggressive post flop image. I was really hoping he had AA/KK and would go over the top of my pot sized bet. Was this a terrible idea? What might have been a better idea to play this one? In hindsight, perhaps I should have waited for the turn to make a move? Comments?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 max, 5 handed)

saw flop|<font color="C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP ($22.50)
Button ($65.82)
Hero ($66.05)
BB ($84.34)
UTG ($25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls $0, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, Button raises to $2, Hero calls $2, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>,50,25, UTG folds.

Flop: ($5.50) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero bets $5, Button folds.

Final Pot: $10.50
<font color="green">Main Pot: $5.50, won by Hero.</font>
<font color="green">Pot 2: $5, returned to Hero.</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
No showdown. Hero wins $10.50. </font>

[Rage23]

I think your flop pot bet is fine because:

1. The hands he'll call a pot bet with are most likely dominated by you or underdogs. AJ, QJs, AA, KK, QQ, 99

2. The hands like AKs, AQs, AJs are all real possibilities, and you don't want to give him the correct odds to draw out on you by either checking or betting small on the flop.

Summary: A pot bet should keep him from continuing with hands that will draw out on you but allow him to consider staying in with TPTK or an overpair...exactly what you want.

[umdpoker]

i seriously doubt he had aa/kk

[RichSaneSwindler]

My experience with top set on the flop is that it is best to overbet the pot. The issue to consider is whether you could get away from the hand if he called your bet and a scare card came on the turn. Consider that he could call you with

AKs, AQs, ATs, KTs

or with

ATos, KTos, etc.

Given this, you have to be worried about any spade, any queen and any seven and even a ten. My problem with top and middle set with a straight and flush draw on the board, there are a lot of scare cards that could come on the turn any of which might have you beat and none of which would you really be in a good spot to call a bet or raise with. Why put yourself in that situation 40% of the time? Well, it depends on how good your opponents are and how good you are at laying down a hand. I have found it is very hard to release a set on the turn or on the river. If your opponent had called and a spade had come on the turn and you both checked and he fired on the river would you have been able to lay it down?

So, in summary, my view is that with a spade and flush draw on the board when you make top set over bet. Then if you get called you know you are getting called by a made hand (AA, KK, QQ, 88, 99 in this case).

-RSS