KQs, was this an okay bluff on the river?

[Rage23]

I was real happy with my play initally, but now I'm thinking it may have been too risky a bluff. I'd love some comments, thanks...

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed)

saw flop|<font color="C00000">saw showdown</font>

UTG+1 ($35.95)
MP1 ($17.15)
MP2 ($26.30)
MP3 ($21.75)
CO ($26.80)
Hero ($21.20)
SB ($36.90)
BB ($21.50)
UTG ($21.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="666666">4 folds</font>, MP3 calls $0, <font color="CC3333">CO raises to $3</font>, Hero calls $3, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>,50, MP3 folds.

is KQs really worth calling with, with no read on CO?

Flop: ($7.25) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">CO bets $3</font>, Hero calls $3.

such a weak bet...would a raise have been better here?

Turn: ($13.25) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">CO bets $3</font>, Hero calls $3.

another weak bet, either he's slowplaying like crazy, or he's got nothing and just wants to continue his preflop aggression in a mild form....I was planning on folding to any bets here, but the flush card came, so I stayed in to see the river.

River: ($19.25) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">CO bets $3</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to $10</font>, CO folds.

muck here, or was the reraise a good idea?

Final Pot: $32.25
<font color="green">Main Pot: $25.25, won by Hero.</font>
<font color="green">Pot 2: $7, returned to Hero.</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
Hero shows Qs Ks (one pair, fours).
Outcome: Hero wins $32.25. </font>

[tewall]

I like calling when your opponent bets small. It gives you a chance to make your hand cheaply and then win a big pot later. IOW it makes your implied odds very good.

On the river you're risking 10 to win 22. That seems like not bad odds. He's certainly not showing much strength. If he were slow-playing he'd almost certainly have made a larger bet at the river. I'm sure curious as to what he raised with.

Anyway, there's absolutely no way you can muck on the river. He's offering you 7 to 1 on your call. There's no reason for you to think the odds are 7 to 1 that your hand's not good. So the choice is between calling and raising. There's a decent chance your raise made him lay down a better hand, so it looks like it was a good play.

[all luck no skill]

Please don't take this the wrong way, it's meant to be constructive criticism.

I think you played the hand horribly on all streets except the river. You were able to bluff out the best hand, which is always nice. But that wasn't your intention (ie you didn't call all the way in hopes of utilizing a river bluff).


I'd be willing to bet that you were up against a dominating hand that laid down on the river because he couldn't possibly imagine someone worse than him simply calling the entire way.

Try to examine what you were intending to do on each street. Folding should come to mind.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
I like calling when your opponent bets small. It gives you a chance to make your hand cheaply and then win a big pot later. IOW it makes your implied odds very good.


[/ QUOTE ]

your implied odds are actually pretty mediocre on the flop call. even if you hit an overcard, the only way that a lot of money will go into the pot is if the villain can beat top pair. this should be a fold on the flop, unless you want to put in a raise to try to scare him off AK or AQ. in my book, fold is best followed by raise followed by call.
[ QUOTE ]

On the river you're risking 10 to win 22. That seems like not bad odds. He's certainly not showing much strength. If he were slow-playing he'd almost certainly have made a larger bet at the river. I'm sure curious as to what he raised with.

Anyway, there's absolutely no way you can muck on the river. He's offering you 7 to 1 on your call. There's no reason for you to think the odds are 7 to 1 that your hand's not good. So the choice is between calling and raising. There's a decent chance your raise made him lay down a better hand, so it looks like it was a good play.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is crazy talk. You can't call down with a K high. You might lose to a bluff. Most pre-flop raises are made with A-high or a pocket pair, neither of which you can beat.

I think the bluff-raise is a nice play, although I would recommend raising it up a little higher. The pot's big and he might call you down with a weak pair for the right price.

Once again though - I'd say fold is best, then raise, then call.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]

I think you played the hand horribly on all streets except the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

i like the turn call. and what would you have recommended doing before the flop? fold, i presume?

[tewall]

I agree with you, except for the river. I wasn't paying attention to the stack sizes, and took the guys word that the bets were small. They weren't really that small (at least not the flop bet).

On the river you think folding is best, followed by raising, followed by calling, right? Folding is 0EV. For raising to be better than calling it has to be -EV, but less so than calling. But calling must be very minimally -EV, as it's getting 7 to 1 odds. For raising to be in between 0 and something which is minimally EV is going to be very difficult. Most likely raising is either the best play or the worst.

[all luck no skill]

It's a 6x BB bet into a pot that's very likely to be heads up, and my stack is only ~40x BB.

Easy fold.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
On the river you think folding is best, followed by raising, followed by calling, right? Folding is 0EV. For raising to be better than calling it has to be -EV, but less so than calling. But calling must be very minimally -EV, as it's getting 7 to 1 odds. For raising to be in between 0 and something which is minimally EV is going to be very difficult. Most likely raising is either the best play or the worst.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think calling the $3 on the river has something like -$2 EV. villain was probably ahead before the flop. if not, villain is ~ 33% to improve. the fact that he has bet every street makes it much more likely he has something. hero will win this bet with a call very rarely.

i'm sure you could make the argument that raising is even more negative EV. but i would say i would at least consider raising whereas i never would consider calling.

[gergery]

My two cents:

Preflop – a lot depends on the raiser. If he’s a bit loose then I’d call, solid or tight then I fold. Also, it says MP calls $0? If it was folded all the way to CO and he raised 6xbb (which means a weaker hand like AT than 4xbb to me) then I might think steal raise and call. If MP limped, then I give him credit for a better hand and his raise is not as much an overbet and I probably fold. Either way, KQs is a good hand and it’s a reasonably close decision between fold and call, especially since you have position, and he’s effectively raising into just a 4-way field.

On Flop – I like raising best, then calling, then folding. Again a lot depends on raiser. His half potsize bet feels like two overcards not a higher pair which I would have expected to bet the pot. Overcards are also statistically more likely to be dealt. So semibluff reraise (6 outs +backdoor) seems good. But his overcards have odds to call at 6:1 or better, so you need to bet at least ~$6 to make it a mistake for him So I’d bet ~$8 and if he reraises he’s got an overpair or trips and if he calls he’s got a flushdraw+2 overcards.

Calling is also not a terrible option if you want a cheaper less risky way to see where you are and look at a turn card. Many players will bluff with overcards on flop but slow on turn. You also have ~7 outs and are almost getting pot odds to call at 3:1 so I would not fold here.

On the turn, it now looks pretty clear that he has overcards and missed the flop. If he caught anything, he’d want to push out flushdraws and get money in. I definitely bet harder here (~$10) to get his overcards out and you still have 15 outs to improve if called. I don’t like your reasoning of “staying in to see the river” since you will only improve 1 in 3 times when you do improve it either won’t help him (spade), or might help him more than you (KQ) and you’re giving him a free shot at a minimum of 6 outs.

On the river, what were you representing? He won’t believe the 4 helped you, so your bet says you had a hand all along. But what hand would you call a preflop raise and then be happy calling all the way down to river and then reraising with? Most players would have bet more on any made hand on the flop since both straights and flush possibilities were there, and no draws improved. If he had caught part of the board, a smart player is likely to call you here suspecting a bluff.

Ok, so that was more like 12 cents.

-greg

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
I like calling when your opponent bets small. It gives you a chance to make your hand cheaply and then win a big pot later. IOW it makes your implied odds very good.


[/ QUOTE ]


You do not have implied odds here. In fact, you have reverse implied odds.

If you hit your hand one of two things is likely to happen, 1) you are likely to scare him away if he has QQ, JJ, TT, is bluffing or missed it, or 2) he has you beat with a flush or a hand that dominates yours with AK or AQ.

--g

[Rage23]

quoted: I agree with you, except for the river. I wasn't paying attention to the stack sizes, and took the guys word that the bets were small. They weren't really that small (at least not the flop bet).

-- I agree, although I failed to mention that in the past, he had bet out pot with any kind of hand or even overcards, so the 3 buck bets really looked weak in comparison.

[Rage23]

thanks for all the advice from everyone...its amazing how much you can learn here

[tewall]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling is also not a terrible option if you want a cheaper less risky way to see where you are and look at a turn card. Many players will bluff with overcards on flop but slow on turn. You also have ~7 outs and are almost getting pot odds to call at 3:1 so I would not fold here.


[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't this pretty much saying the same thing I said?

[MasterShakes]

I think the bluff on the river is ok, but I doubt I would have gotten there. Maybe I'm just playing super tight lately, but I doubt that I call with this hand pre-flop. After the flop, I usually read a small bet like this as a baiting bet that's not scared. I tend to read bigger bets as weak bets and from my experience, this is what these bets tend to mean. Big bet means "I just want to end this now"... small bet means "call me". I guess you had a good read here though. Nice play.

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Calling is also not a terrible option if you want a cheaper less risky way to see where you are and look at a turn card.


[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't this pretty much saying the same thing I said?

[/ QUOTE ]

You said:
"I like calling when your opponent bets small. It gives you a chance to make your hand cheaply and then win a big pot later. IOW it makes your implied odds very good."

I am saying:
I like raising. Calling is ok (not bad not great) when my opponent bets small because I have a good chance at a turn or river bluff, and I want more information about my opponents hand. I have some concern about making my hand and need to play cautiously if i do, and don't think i will win a big pot later, because i don't have implied odds."

--Greg