Sustainable rate at SnG's

[SDA004]

A buddy of mine believes that he can play 3 100+10 SNG's a week at Stars and win 1 per week. He is getting 500 dollars soon and puttin git all in and starting at that. He's adimant that he'll be able to do this as his summer job, I'm trying to tell him that its not a sustainable rate at the $5 table nevermind at the $100. Does anyone think this is possible? If not what is a sustainable rate at SNG's, any stakes?

[eastbay]

I predict your buddy will lose his $500 in short order, if he is "adamant" about things about which he obviously has no clue. That shows a general tendency toward willful ignorance that doesn't bode well for a poker player.

First of all, playing $100's on a $500 bankroll is just stupid if there are any consequences at all to going broke.

Your buddy should start in the $10+1's and play until he has shown he can sustain an ROI in the 30% range over 100 games. Then he can move up in a systematic way from there.

3 games a week as a "summer job"? Please.

What's his username? I want a piece of that $500.

eastbay

[SDA004]

30% in the money, or winning??? I mean i don't know, He's a good player...I just don't think he's taking into account the variability obviously.

[La Brujita]

Eastbay can correct me if I am incorrect but I doubt the world's top player could beat those games for first place 1 out of 3 times. The blind structure just doesn't allow for that much domination.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
30% in the money, or winning??? I mean i don't know, He's a good player...I just don't think he's taking into account the variability obviously.

[/ QUOTE ]

Neither. 30% ROI, which means [net profit]/[buy-ins+fees].

He could be the best player in the entire world and he would still have a quite good chance at going broke.

Nobody wins 1/3 of the 100's over the long term. Nobody.

He should be happy to take 15% wins in the 100's, IMO.

eastbay

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Eastbay can correct me if I am incorrect but I doubt the world's top player could beat those games for first place 1 out of 3 times. The blind structure just doesn't allow for that much domination.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree 100%. I'd stake my entire current bankroll of about $15k on it if someone wanted to place an even money wager on taking 100/300 1sts in the PP $109s.

In fact, I'd take out a home equity loan of $50k for that wager.

eastbay

[Jurollo]

I consider myself a very solid SNG player at the $20+$2 level and have a win % of 19%, and ITM% of around 45%, and I am ecstatic with those figures. There is no way you can expect to win, let alone place in 1/3 every week, especially with a bankroll starting at less than 5X Entry + Fee. My guess is he loses the $500 within 2-3 weeks.

[hhboy77]

33% win rate in 100 sng's? that depends. is he psychic? if not, he has no chance. you say your friend is a solid player, and that may be true, but he obviously has very little experience in sng's. hopefully, he has a lot of experience in no limit live play or tournament play, otherwise he might take a beating in general.

secondly, what kind of summer job pays you only $200 a week. that would be how much you make if you won one and lost two per week. perhaps, he's planning on winning one and then taking second in the other two. that would give him a profit of 700 per week.