Hypothetical Situation...

[GoblinMason (Craig)]

What would others do in this situation...

Party 0.5/1 with lots of calling stations

You have AA on the button: UTG calls, 1 fold, someone in MP raises, 2 callers, then you raise, BB calls, everyone else calls.

Flop (18SB) 6 players

J /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Checked to you...

Action?

Seems obvious, but what do you think?

[tech]

Is this a trick question?

[nothumb]

This is in HPFAP. Not a similar situation, the exact same situation. I believe they say check behind.

NT

[GoblinMason (Craig)]

[ QUOTE ]
This is in HPFAP. Not a similar situation, the exact same situation. I believe they say check behind.

NT

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, thanks for pointing that out /images/graemlins/wink.gif I'm curious how many people would actually do that.

[tech]

I'm pretty sure HEPFAP doesn't discuss Party .5/1.

[GoblinMason (Craig)]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty sure HEPFAP doesn't discuss Party .5/1.

[/ QUOTE ]

In the edition I have, there's a section on loose play. i.e. Party .5/1

[Greg J]

If i show my ignorance here, so be it -- I'm here to learn.

It seems to me the prudent question here is why would you NOT bet here? Someone might have flopped a straight, and might be trying to slowplay. I have personally found that playing scared here costs me money, at least at the levels I'm playing now.

I guess my question is this: Why would you let someone with a T or 9, or a hand like 67, AXs with a backdoor flush draw, any pair, etc, get a free card here? I don't think you can!

Feel free to correct me.

[tech]

Mine too, but IMO .5/1 is way beyond what they are talking about in that section. There is a note somewhere in that section about how a lot of that stuff doesn't apply against truly *terrible* players. I think your typical .5/1 player qualifies. You don't need them to catch second-best hands because they are going to call anyway.

[nothumb]

I think I'd probably do it in this case. Although I'd be interested to hear what people say. I think the possibility of getting check-raised from EP (and having an opportunity to 3 bet) entices a lot of people here, but I'm not sure about it. The only time I'm really confident about knocking people out is if they're all forced to call 2 cold twice - i.e. you three bet and he caps. With the large pot things get really fishy. And if you do get to that point, you might well be losing to the capper.

I think I stick with the book on this one, but it is interesting transposing the case to micro-limits.

NT

[nothumb]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't need them to catch second-best hands because they are going to call anyway

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is correct. However, I think you check through here for the opposite reason - that they are going to call anyway, and if certain cards fall (10 or 9) you are almost sure you're beat. You do probably have the most equity at this point, but you're unlikely to knock out any one card straight draws or suited cards. I think you wait here because when you've seen the turn card you've either picked up a huge edge or you're ready to lay down.

I'm open to discussion on this one but the more I think about it, the more I think the advice translates.

NT

[Greg J]

[ QUOTE ]
they are going to call anyway, and if certain cards fall (10 or 9) you are almost sure you're beat. You do probably have the most equity at this point, but you're unlikely to knock out any one card straight draws or suited cards. I think you wait here because when you've seen the turn card you've either picked up a huge edge or you're ready to lay down.

[/ QUOTE ]

True -- you might not knock out players with inside straight draws (at micro limits you likely wont). However, does this mean you should still not make them pay for that card while the odds are probably in your favor? It seems to me that allowing the free card here is a mathematical error.

Just a thought. What do you think? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[GoblinMason (Craig)]

Nothumb, you hit the nail on the head, at least according to S&M.

The idea is that people at these limits are going to call anyway and if a 9/T comes on the turn you're almost certainly beat. Here's the quote:

"..they all check to you. The play is to also check! Then when someone bets on fourth street you raise - unless a ten or a nine comes off.
Again, if someone is going to draw out on you on the turn you can't prevent it anyway. By playing your hand this way you'll be able to stop him from drawing our on you on the end."

Personally I'm still sure why checking is correct. If you bet and everyone calls you aren't you getting the most money in the pot when you have the best hand? Isn't betting +EV? Someone tell me why my newbish thinking is aweful.

[GoblinMason (Craig)]

[ QUOTE ]
True -- you might not knock out players with inside straight draws (at micro limits you likely wont).

[/ QUOTE ]

You wouldn't get anyone to fold for one SB at higher limits either. They're getting 18-1 odds for a 11-1 gutshot; that's worth a call, no?

[cardcounter0]

I think you are right. You bet. HEPFAP suggesting the check was for loose live games. Party Poker .5/$1 the players are coming at you with even crazier hands than live.
They are not going to fold to a flop bet. (I think that is why HEPFAP suggests the check thru, getting bets from players at the higher limit turn that would fold to the flop bet). Ain't gonna happen at Party. They will call the flop, and they will call the turn also. Bet it, make the suck out artists pay, because they will suck out, so you have to have the pot pumped up for the times they don't to make up for it.
/images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Greg J]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
True -- you might not knock out players with inside straight draws (at micro limits you likely wont).

[/ QUOTE ]

You wouldn't get anyone to fold for one SB at higher limits either. They're getting 18-1 odds for a 11-1 gutshot; that's worth a call, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, i didnt figure out the math.

[GoblinMason (Craig)]

In HPFAP, they're also suggesting the check hoping that someone in LP will bet the turn and you can raise making the suckout artist call 2 cold. I think even on Party, some of them will fold the turn for 2 cold.

[cardcounter0]

Yes, the check thru on the flop might work for more money in the pot. If someone bets the turn early, any callers between you and the early bettor are going to call your raise (they are already in it for 1 bet). So you get 2BB from all the callers on the turn instead of 1.5BB by betting flop and turn (and you have invested nothing if a suckout card comes on the turn).

[nothumb]

[ QUOTE ]
They are not going to fold to a flop bet. (I think that is why HEPFAP suggests the check thru, getting bets from players at the higher limit turn that would fold to the flop bet).

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't quite my reading of the text here. This section is on doing whatever is necessary - often, they say, plays that seem totally crazy to maximize your chances of winning the pot. The idea isn't to collect more bets from players who might fold. The idea is to collect the whole pot more often than not, and minimize your losses when you don't.

I would not argue with the statement by you and Greg that a bet here is +EV, and that you are allowing what is technically a 'mathematical catastrophe' in giving the free card, but I think S&M's point here is that there are certain situations where the size of the pot makes you do really wild stuff. By waiting for the turn you give yourself a better chance of preventing their calls from accidentally following pot odds. There is no way you can make their odds incorrect on this flop. There is, however, a chance you can do it on the turn. That's the point here IMHO.

Good discussion, I'm glad this was posted.

NT

[blackaces13]

[ QUOTE ]
They are not going to fold to a flop bet. (I think that is why HEPFAP suggests the check thru, getting bets from players at the higher limit turn that would fold to the flop bet).

[/ QUOTE ]

This is backwards (if I understand you correctly which I may not). HPFAP says to check because anyone will call you on the flop and if the turn is bad and you're beat you will lose anyway. So they say that it is a raise on the turn that will get rid of gutshots and thin draws. Waiting to raise here is about eliminating thin draws in a big pot, not getting more money in the pot and certainly not being afraid of people folding on the flop.

[GoblinMason (Craig)]

Nothumb: Yep, that's what I got out of it too. It definitely seems totally crazy at first, but I understand the idea now.

This situation actually came up today; I checked, and I got sucked out on /images/graemlins/tongue.gif but they would've been in anyway.

For anyone that hasn't read HPFAP, it has some really interesting (and helpful) stuff on loose games.

[Greg J]

[ QUOTE ]
I think S&M's point here is that there are certain situations where the size of the pot makes you do really wild stuff.

[/ QUOTE ]

That makes a lot of sense. Thnks for addressing that point /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[blackaces13]

[ QUOTE ]
For anyone that hasn't read HPFAP, it has some really interesting (and helpful) stuff on loose games.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree completely. HPFAP is a great book but the loose games section is extremely confusing and not very helpful or applicable IMO, especially not for Party .5/1. In fact, exactly what S&M define as a loose game seems far from universally agreed upon and this is the source of much confusion and misguided attempts at applying certain concepts where it is inappropriate. The "pot manipulation" section is a perfect example of something that is often confused and misapplied by many.

I think a lot of the need for Ed Miller's book stems precisely from people misinterpreting the HPFAP loose games section.

[nothumb]

I've gotten reamed a few times for trying to apply the loose games section to micro limits, so I hear you there. But I still think there are some principles elucidated there that are quite useful. You have to take them with a grain of salt and lean towards labeling micro players as 'terrible' rather than loose, but they're good.

Most important statement of that section IMHO (paraphrasing here as I don't have it in front of me): You make money when bad players make bad calls on the flop and beyond. (Their argument for frequently keeping it to one bet and playing a few more hands preflop against loose players.) I also think their points about adjusting to poor play as opposed to your usual tight game are spot on.

NT

[blackaces13]

[ QUOTE ]
You make money when bad players make bad calls on the flop and beyond. (Their argument for frequently keeping it to one bet and playing a few more hands preflop against loose players.)

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly what I'm talking about as something that I believe is misinterpreted and something that Ed Miller (from what I've read on these forums) would NEVER recommend because truly loose players will call you down anyway. In the book example it has you calling out of the BB against 3 or 4 loose limpers with AQ I believe. They say that since you can now make their calls incorrect on the flop that you win because they make "mistakes" now or they fold and you may save yourself the pot.

However, if you're up againt really bad players who will call you down everytime with gutshots and bottom pair then it makes no difference if their calls are "correct" or not, they will call regardless. You simply MUST showdown a better hand than these players at showdown.

So by keeping the pot small, all you do is reduce the size of the pots you drag while your total amount of pots dragged remains unchanged. Mistakes or no mistakes it adds up to less $$ against true Party calling stations. They'll be there at the river either way.

[SparkyDog]

You should bet AA in this situation because S&M's advice was about loose players who play reasonable post-flop. Party players don't. Their advice about playing in strange ways is to maximize chances of winning the pot and folding out miracle draws through manipulating the pot and betting. It shouldn't be done at micros because they won't fold, defeating the purpose of waiting until the turn to raise. Bet the turn, bet the flop, bet the river.