All In On A Draw

[Hood]

The following hand came up which made me rather angry with myself:

The reason I called was, with a bit of quick maths, the pot was laying me about 2:1, and with a flush draw and 2 overcards I thought I was in good shape to top-pair.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="C00000">saw showdown</font>

UTG (t600)
<font color="C00000">Hero (t1445)</font>
MP2 (t575)
<font color="C00000">CO (t1115)</font>
Button (t1760)
SB (t1085)
BB (t1420)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t150</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls t150, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>,

Flop: (t375) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets t250</font>, <font color="CC3333">CO raises to t965 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls t715.

Turn: (t2305) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t2305) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t2305
<font color="green">Main Pot: t2305 (t2305), between Hero and CO.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by CO (t2305).</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
Hero shows Qh Kh (high card, king).
CO shows Jc Js (one pair, jacks).
Outcome: CO wins t2305. </font>


After losing that (and consequently going out of the tourney a few hands later) I got rather angry with putting most of my stack on the line with a draw.

So I did a bit of calculation - with the 1590 in the pot and facing a call of 715, I was getting 1:2.22 on my call. Off to twodimes I go:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=379089
pokenum -h qh kh - jc js -- 6h 2h 7s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 7s 6h 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kh Qh 536 54.14 454 45.86 0 0.00 0.541
Js Jc 454 45.86 536 54.14 0 0.00 0.459

and against that specific hand, I was actually a favourite. I haven't tried against top pair, but I imagine it's similar. So was I right to make this call&gt;

[patrick dicaprio]

It is not a bad play here so dont kill yourself about it. I would have called here also as you are a favorite. The JJ played it poorly I think since he will only be called here by hands like yours that he is a dog to.

Pat

[Hood]

Thanks for the reply.

I guess one point is that I should have just pushed, being that I was willing to call. Or raise less than I did so I've got space to fold.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
The JJ played it poorly I think since he will only be called here by hands like yours that he is a dog to.


[/ QUOTE ]

The JJ played it perfectly. Calling PF without taking much risk, getting a great flop, sensing some weakness in Hero's bet, figuring JJ is good, and reraising all-in. Quite basic.

However, Hero's play is more tricky here. Check raising all-in is an option, and so as betting less on the flop in order to make a worse hand raise you, and then push. It depends on your read of your opponent. JJ is actualyy quite a good hand for you, if you're willing to go all the way. QQ-AA obviously are worse for you, and so is any Ax that hit a pair, not to speak about a set. So your play should depent also on your read of CO - with what hands he'll call, with what hands he'll push, etc.

[patrick dicaprio]

i dont agree. if you go all in on the flop with JJ then your opponent will usually call and at best you are a 3-2 fav. a better play is to go all in on the turn when the draw misses. you get your money in as a bigger fav and your opponent may still call but if he doesnt that is OK.

Pat

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
dont agree. if you go all in on the flop with JJ then your opponent will usually call and at best you are a 3-2 fav. a better play is to go all in on the turn when the draw misses. you get your money in as a bigger fav and your opponent may still call but if he doesnt that is OK.


[/ QUOTE ]

Let me ask you a few questions, or make a few comments.

1) Are you going to flat call the bet on the flop? Virtually letting your opponent to see a card, which he chose how much to pay for? This is very close to a free card, and that's EXACTLY what your opponent (hero here) will like you to do.

2) Do you realize that any heart, and any Q,K,A are scare cards for you on the turn? What are you going to do if one of them hit? Fold to a bet, when the pot is 1590 (if he pushes) and you are with 715 left? Or call only "small" bets? Or push yourself, if you face a bet, to represent the flush??

3) Not to speak about the terrible option, in which he sucks-out on you with a hidden set that falls on the turn. You're going to lose everything in that case. You let him do that, the way you play.

4) You let your opponent bluff you out on the turn WAY too many times, playing by calling PF AND on the flop.


Reraising all-in here, as JJ, is absolutely the correct move, with pot at 625, your stack at 965, and flop is rags and with 2 suits.

[Hood]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
dont agree. if you go all in on the flop with JJ then your opponent will usually call and at best you are a 3-2 fav. a better play is to go all in on the turn when the draw misses. you get your money in as a bigger fav and your opponent may still call but if he doesnt that is OK.


[/ QUOTE ]

Let me ask you a few questions, or make a few comments.

1) Are you going to flat call the bet on the flop? Virtually letting your opponent to see a card, which he chose how much to pay for? This is very close to a free card, and that's EXACTLY what your opponent (hero here) will like you to do.

2) Do you realize that any heart, and any Q,K,A are scare cards for you on the turn? What are you going to do if one of them hit? Fold to a bet, when the pot is 1590 (if he pushes) and you are with 715 left? Or call only "small" bets? Or push yourself, if you face a bet, to represent the flush??

3) Not to speak about the terrible option, in which he sucks-out on you with a hidden set that falls on the turn. You're going to lose everything in that case. You let him do that, the way you play.

4) You let your opponent bluff you out on the turn WAY too many times, playing by calling PF AND on the flop.


Reraising all-in here, as JJ, is absolutely the correct move, with pot at 625, your stack at 965, and flop is rags and with 2 suits.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did both players played correctly?

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
Did both players played correctly?

[/ QUOTE ]

Amazingly, yes i believe they did just about.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
Did both players played correctly?


[/ QUOTE ]

Many times this is the case. However, as opposed to the JJ's play, it is more difficult to analyze *your* (KQs) play here, in the context of the whole tourney, and to say what was the correct way to play it. That's my opinion.

I'll tell you why. It depends on how much you value your chips in this point of the game, and what risk are you willing to take for what CEV. For example, on the flop, with 375 in the pot, if he's on an over-pair, and you know he'll go all the way with it (like many players will do), you are not much better than coin-flip, and the pot at the start is at 375T. But it's tough to say what he has, and how will he play it, and since you were the aggressor PF, it makes sense to bet. After he reraised all-in, even if he has an over pair, you have the odds to call. It is not very probable to assume he'll reraise all-in only if he he hit a set (in this case, you should fold, of course, and also if you specifically put him on AA,KK).

That's the strong thing about check-raising in similar situations. You check, your opponent might bet at you with hands he's willing to fold (and also with hands that will go all the way, of course), and your reraise *might* make certain hands (like 88,99?) fold, since you are represening a lot of strength. Notice that you're not such a big favorite even against unimproved hands as Ax (55:44). You really want them to fold.

The way you've played it, which isn't necessarily wrong, you didn't let hands like 88,99, or even certain Ax (played by certain opponents) an opportunity to fold. Although, with such short stacks, it's hard to know if any of them will fold certain over pairs on such a board.

Another thought could be, that if you're willing to go all the way, no matter what, even if you bet and he reraises all-in, there's merit in pushing to begin with, despite the fact it's a big over-bet. That's because stacks are too short to usually consider he has a set if he reraises you, so you go for the 375T in the pot, which is what you'r fighting for ANYWAY, and you gain a nice folding equity from hands you don't want to go to showdown with, since you are almost never a significant favorite here.

These are only some thoughts. Any analysis can go much much deeper.