Tourny EV with KK against the big stack?

[LinusKS]

Party Poker 10/1.

I'm holding KK and get raised all in by the big stack.

What to do?

I'm LinusKO, in the sb. The big stack is in the button.


30/60 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament 4366420) -

Fri Jun 25 22:35:30 EDT 2004
Table Table 11539 (Real Money) -- Seat 3 is the button

Total number of players : 7

Seat 2: jrepa (700)
Seat 3: vegas_storms (2870)
Seat 4: LinusKO (1750)
Seat 7: Enuresis (695)
Seat 8: julie5616 (710)
Seat 9: chip_hungry (655)
Seat 10: TensSplitter (620)
LinusKO posts small blind (15)
Enuresis posts big blind (30)
** Dealing down cards **


Dealt to LinusKO [ Kh, Kd ]

julie5616 folds.
chip_hungry calls (30)
TensSplitter folds.
jrepa calls (30)

vegas_storms raises (150) to 150

LinusKO raises (310) to 325

Enuresis folds.
chip_hungry folds.
jrepa folds.

vegas_storms raises (2720) to 2870
vegas_storms is all-In.

LinusKO calls (1425)
LinusKO is all-In.


** Dealing Flop ** : [ 7d, 6s, 5d ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 3s ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 2h ]

Creating Main Pot with $3590 with LinusKO
Creating Side Pot 1 with $1120 with vegas_storms

** Summary **
Main Pot: 3590 | Side Pot 1: 1120
Board: [ 7d 6s 5d 3s 2h ]
jrepa balance 670, lost 30 (folded)


RESULTS HERE:

<font color="white">vegas_storms balance 4710, bet 2870, collected 4710, net +1840 [ Ah Ac ] [ a pair of aces -- Ah,Ac,7d,6s,5d ]
LinusKO balance 0, lost 1750 [ Kh Kd ] [ a pair of kings -- Kh,Kd,7d,6s,5d ]
</font>

[Frogger]

Has he been bullying people at the table with his big stack? If he has, the called all in is justified. However, if he has been protective of his big stack and just laid back waiting for premiums until he passes the bubble, I'd question the call.

What would you be doing if you had 2800 chips? I'd be sitting there chilling until a few more people got knocked out. The blinds aren't big enough to make stealing worth the effort or risk. If he gets a super premium hand, he's going to go for it bigtime because he knows the odds are there. When you have so many chips outside of the bubble, your first goal should be to safely make it into the money and not take extraneous risks.

When he raised you all in, you might have had the best hand but you are also putting your entire tournament on it. You could have coasted into the money, but when the big stack fights back you'll often find yourself in trouble.

[ilya]

If you weren't as comfortably ahead of everyone else besides the big stack, I think you'd have an easy call. The big stack could easily make this move with AA-QQ or AK, maybe JJ or AQ if you were shortstacked. This would put you (far) ahead at least 60% of the time, and far behind only 20% of the time.
But considering that you're the second boss stack, and by a healthy margin at that...I think I would fold. Especially if I haven't seen the big stack (re)-raising very often. You've got to figure that he's afraid of you too, since losing an all-in to you would drop him to only slightly above average. So it's not nearly as likely that he'd be making this move with QQ (or anything worse besides AK) as it would be if you had a shorter stack. So you can probably only count on being ahead about 50% of the time. And with the blinds still fairly low, you have plenty of time left to outplay the others before you get to all-in or fold territory.
Just my 2 cents.

[zephyr]

I'd call every single time. This is party 10 + 1 not the world series of poker. I don't believe that you can reasonably put the big stack on such a narrow range of hands as AA-QQ, or AK. I've seen players push here with AQ, AJ, A10, Axs, JJ, TT, 99 etc. I'll stand by my philosophy:

"In low limit SNG's, if you never fold KK preflop, you'll never make a mistake."

Regards,

Zephyr

[LinusKS]

Those are good general points, Frogger, but I was hoping for something a little more specific.

I mean, the countervailing points are 1.) the big stack heads up is likely to bully, 2.) KK is a pretty good hand, 3.) if you double here, your chances of catching first improve dramatically.

Also, I have to ask what is the point of raising here, if you're planning to lay down to his all-in?

Or do you just call? And if you do call, what are you looking for, to justify calling his post-flop all-in?

Or do you fold your KK?

[Frogger]

I still like the joke that someone said here.

If he has Aces, then my pocket 88s are just as good as kings and I'd never fold kings!

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker 10/1.

I'm holding KK and get raised all in by the big stack.

What to do?


[/ QUOTE ]

What!? You call. Geez.

eastbay

[LinusKS]

ilya, thanks for the reply.

But if you think he'd make that move with AA, AK, or QQ, I'm not sure about the math. If I remember right, AK is roughly 3x as likely as AA or QQ (somebody please correct me here if I'm remembering the probabilities wrong). That means - if you think he'd make that move with any one of those three hands - it comes out to 1 AA, 1 QQ, and 3 AK, or 20%, 20%, and 60%, meaning you'd be a pretty big favorite 80% of the time, and a dog only 20%.

[LinusKS]

I agree with your assesment of PP tenners. I've seen people push with all kinds of hands here, including things I wouldn't even call the bb with.

[ilya]

I was including KK in my calculations...is that wrong because the fact that you're holding KK makes him also having it so unlikely? I didn't think so but I may definitely be wrong.

[LinusKS]

But what's the probability he has Aces, as opposed to AK, QQ, or some other hand?

[Frogger]

1/220 assuming he has any random hand. That means, If I dealt you a hand out of a shuffled deck, the chance that you'd have aces would be less than .5%

BUT, the fact that he raised makes the probablity more likely that he had aces.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
1/220 assuming he has any random hand. That means, If I dealt you a hand out of a shuffled deck, the chance that you'd have aces would be less than .5%

BUT, the fact that he raised makes the probablity more likely that he had aces.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well first of all, the problem description was wrong. He said he was raised all-in. He was RE-raised all-in and that's a very big difference.

That makes it closer, but still a call in a $10+1.

eastbay

[LinusKS]

Well if you're holding KK the chance that someone else has it too drops dramatically - by about 5/6ths. So if the chance of catching KK is .45%, the chance that a random hand would have it too is 1/6th of .45%, or .075%.

However, I made a mistake.

Since I'm holding KK, the chance that a random hand against me is AK is not 1.2%, but one half of that, or .6%.

In other words, if I thought the big stack would make that play with only AA, KK, QQ, or AK, the odds would look something like this:

AA: 1
KK: .16
QQ: 1
AK: 1.3

I'd expect to be a big dog against AA 29% of the time.
Tied with KK 5% of the time.
And a favorite against AK and QQ 66% of the time.

Math is not my strong suit, so somebody please correct me if I missed something here.

[tubbyspencer]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (7 handed)

CO (t700)
Button (t2870)
Hero (t1750)
BB (t695)
UTG (t710)
MP1 (t655)
MP2 (t620)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, MP1 calls t30, MP2 folds, CO calls t30, Button raises to t150, Hero raises to t325, BB folds, MP1 folds, CO folds, Button raises to t2870 (All-In), Hero calls t1425 (All-In).

Flop: (t4710) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t4710) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

River: (t4710) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t4710


OK. You have to reraise where you did – he could easily be stealing, or bullying with his position and stack size. The question then becomes, what sort of %s do you need to lay this KK down. But I think it’s best thought of this way:

Average stack size now is about 1150 chips. There’s 3 possibilities: (1) fold and you have 1425, slightly above average size stack w 7 people left (2) call and win and you have 3590, almost half the total chips with 7 people left and (3) call and you lose and you’re out.

Your EV on #3 is easy – it’s zero. So whats your EV in the other 2 situations? Let’s say this is a $10 + 1 S&amp;G. First, Second, Third pays 50, 30, 20. Option number 2 GREATLY increases your chances, not only of making the $, but of getting first place, where the real money is. I’ve played S&amp;G’s with you LinusK, and you are very solid. Your EV with half the total chips is very high. Let’s say out of ten times with half the chips, 7 left, and blinds this low, I’d bet you get 1st 3 out of 10 times. Make it 2 out of 10 times each that you get 2nd or 3rd. And 30% you’re out of the $(which is very high actually – but I’m being conservative). Your EV there would be $25.

Your EV with slightly above average stack size is considerably lower. The blinds are low relative to your stack size right now, yes, but you’re no lock yet to make it in the $. And you’re % chance of first, especially with that even bigger stack now, is low. I think you’d be doing well to get first once, second twice and third twice out of ten times in the 1425 chips scenario. The EV on that is $15.

So, IF(and I know it’s a big if) your EV the times you win is $25, the times you fold is $15, and the times you lose is $0 – what percentage of the time do you have to win to call?

(I’ll go work on it – but if anyone can do the math on that I’d appreciate it – thanks.)

Tubby

[tubbyspencer]

Well that didn’t take me long. If you’re EV when you win is $25, and when you fold is $15, you have to win 60% to break even.

But I think your EV is higher than $25 when you have half the chips. And I think its lower than $15 probably, when you fold and have slightly above average size. The higher the first number and the lower the second number, the less you need to win to make the call right.

Tubby

[ThePopinjay]

This is a no-brainer call. This is exactly what you want. If you had excluded the results from your post, nobody here would be questioning it.

[stupidsucker]

[ QUOTE ]
I still like the joke that someone said here.

If he has Aces, then my pocket 88s are just as good as kings and I'd never fold kings!

[/ QUOTE ]

88 is a better hand Vs AA then KK is.
but thats only if you KNOW he has AA, in which case you would fold both hands...

Anyways yes you call with KK here IMO.

[patrick dicaprio]

not even a doubt about it you call. i have folded KK tiwce in my life both MTT and both after there were reraises. other than that at these 10+1 you should call every time.

Pat