Party $30+$3 - is this my only play?

[TJD]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (6 handed)

UTG (t1225)
MP (t1910)
Hero (t1130)
Button (t1408)
SB (t710)
BB (t1617)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, MP raises to t600, Hero raises to t1130 (All-In), Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, MP calls t530.

Flop: (t2710) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t2710) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t2710) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t2710
<font color="green">Main Pot: t2710 (t2710), between MP and Hero.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by MP (t2710).</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
MP shows 8c 8h (three of a kind, eights).
Hero shows As Kd (one pair, aces).
Outcome: MP wins t2710. </font>

I am still fairly new to SnGs so although my gut told me this was a MUST reraise allin. I could easily be wrong. MP has been fairly solid but I would not rule out ATs and up or even KQo especially as the blinds are big. Adding those hands I am ahead of to the possible pocket pair that I am behind and the (remote?) possibility that MP folds to an allin reraise if they are attempting to steal and I felt it was probably right (I still do /images/graemlins/smile.gif).

However, I am not sure, since it violates the principle of being the initial aggressor. Help from the experienced very welcome.

Trevor

[stupidsucker]

I am no expert, and I have trouble with choices like this as well.

I am near certain I would have done the same thing you did (ALL IN) however looking at it after the fact, I feel a fold may have been the best thing to do. This guy Min raised from an early position. I am surprised all he had was 88. A lot of times a min raise at this level will easily be AA or KK. Breaking it down in total guestimation. Id say there was over a 70% chance you were beaten preflop with most of that being a coinflip. Lay that sucker down and wait for a better chance to be first in the pot.

My advice may be off, and like I said.. I probably would have pushed too. maybe someone wil set us both straight.

[triplc]

I think this is the perfect play. The big blind is already T300, and there are still 6 of you left, so it's not like you are waiting for someone to bust out. In fact, you are second from the bottom, so you need to do some work here anyway.

You have only 4XBB left approx., and you have a very good hand. You are probably behind, but to wait for a better hand at this point is the wrong move in my opinion.

At this point, the winner of this tournament is going to be the one who gets the luckiest...if the short stack doubles through he's almost the big stack, and the blinds are so huge that it's basically all in or fold. If I had been the big stack, I wouldn't have wasted my time with a T600 raise...I'd have pushed. You took your shot with a very good hand. There's no guarantee that in the next 15 hands or so you'll see anything close to this.

Play well,

CCC

[stupidsucker]

I am still on the fence about it. I just dont think folding here with AKo is a horrible play. I admit, I probably would have pushed too, but then questioned my play later.

I am very curious what some of the regular SnG posters think.
In all honesty if I push here I dont want the raiser to call. I would feel better about pushing if the raiser did a 3x BB raise opposed to a min raise. (unless this guy always min raises then push away)



The min raise really bothers me.

[Leonardo]

No offence to anyone, but this is the easiest push in the world, and to think otherwise is just flat out WRONG. There is no debating it. Just accept that fact that with 6 left and the blinds high (im surprised 6 were left with blinds at 150-300 at party) there is a lot of luck involved, you just have to look for situations where you are a favourite in the long run. AK is a long run favourite here for sure.

[Jman28]

I agree entirely. Short handed, with the blinds this high, players will min raise with any ace, sometimes any king, and sometimes nothing at all. I would push here 100 times out of 100.

[stupidsucker]

The more I think about it , and read the posts saying I am wrong the more I am convinced that folding isnt bad here.

with the blinds so high and with MP already in for 600 he is pot commited for another 530, so you KNOW you are getting called here unless he made a moronic minraise with absolute crap. Any pair and you are the underdog with almost ZERO chance of buying the pot preflop.

A lot of it comes down to a read if you have one. Does this guy normaly minraise or is he a 3x BB guy or a pusher? I would feel more comfortable pushing with QTo first in then I would pushing against a minraise with AKo.

Everyone is getting scared at this time, and YES luck is a big factor this late in the game with still 6 left. Just the fact that there are 6 people left tell me its a tight table and full of better then average players for a party SnG. This also tells me that other people are going to get very agressive. Min raises can be very scary.

I am more then willing to be corrected, and it seems I am going against the flow, but I say let the BB call the minraise and wait for a better time to push when you have a much less likely chance of getting called by a monster.

[stupidsucker]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree entirely. Short handed, with the blinds this high, players will min raise with any ace, sometimes any king, and sometimes nothing at all. I would push here 100 times out of 100

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree.

I dont think 6/10 people is "shorthanded" and I dont think people would minraise with "any King OR any Ace" They are way more likely to push then minraise.

[Tosh]

I see what you are saying and you are right, often you will be on the wrong side of a coinflip. Its also clear he's also not folding. However, you do have an overlay for a coinflip and its true that these guys will often show AQ, AJ etc and even some of the most random hands you can imagine. The min raise is a weird play at times, but I need a read to really start worrying about AA/KK. In this positon you also have little time, you may not even get anything as good as QTo before your big blind, which is a big chunk of your stack.

This is a time where I'll take my chances with a possible coinflip.

[stupidsucker]

Thanks Tosh.

I sent out a few personal messages. (am I being deffensive??) asking some peoples opinions I respect to post here. I am very serious about getting better at poker, and I am already a winning poker player.

Thinking about this situation more and more, I believe that folding or pushing are both OK moves. By pushing you take a large lead and place in first/second more often, but also go out in 6th more often. When you fold here you have a better chance of squeeking into 3rd place.

I am going to have to agree that ABC poker says pushing here is the best thing, however stepping your game up to the next level is knowing when folding here can be more benificial.

As I mentioned before, my first reaction is PUSH.. and they say, think long think wrong....I have been beating myself up over questioning this, and I still am leaning towards wanting to give folding here a chance. I deffenatly think an autofold here is the wrong choice. It deserves a little thought on what you think your opponent has. If this MP guy has always been pushing or 3xBB betting and this is his first min raise I am sticking to my guns and I am folding this AKo (if I am smart enough to think about this).

Does anyone agree with me or at least see that folding isnt a total chump move?

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone agree with me or at least see that folding isnt a total chump move?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think folding is rediculous, and I am glad you are arguing your opinion rather than go with the flow, but I personally would not consider it. If you are sure that you are a better player than everyone at the table, you may not want to take a chance here, even though it's a positive EV move, and just beat them later with your skill.

However, I do consider 6 players a short handed game personally and especially with the blinds as high as they are, people need to make moves and loosen up so they aren't ground down waiting for a hand.

"The tight players don't stand a chance against the live ones who seem to bet and call with anything" - Sklansky on short-handed games

[stupidsucker]

I have a another question to get some feedback.

Did the original raiser play this hand correcly? Is a minraise in this situation a good idea to arouse suspicion from people like me, or is it just asking for a trouble call from the BB then not being able to call an all in on a flop with 2 overcards. (obviosly this was a perfect flop for 88, but it wont be 90% of the time)

[C M Burns]

First basically b/c the raiser is commited the question is should you call allin here w/ AK. You will see a hand better than this (any pair) about 1 in 17 hands. it costs 450 every 6 hands, and the blind go up every 10 so you will bust in prob about 15 hands or so and at some point in between doubling up will only get you to where you are or less, so hand wise you are unlikley to see a better hand when it still matters.

The riase is suspicious, but in the 50's i see people doing this type of thing with med aces or med pairs, even any pair, you would have to know your player to think you were worse than 50/50 on average.

Given the odds in the first part you are unlikley to get a better calling hand. However, if people are reluctant to call allin and you feel you can steal a number of blinds then you should probably fold. This is really the key issue, if being the bettor can give you good odds with any hand than you would need very good odds to call. But if the others call loosly with many hands as is typical then you will just have to hit a hand a few times anyway and this is as good as you are likley to get.

[TylerD]

For me this is an easy push. The blinds are very large at this stage with six people left. In order to survive you are going to have to do one of two things: double up or continually steal antes. Unless you get very lucky you will have to steal raise with lesser hands than AK and you will have to do this several times. It seems unlikely to me that one of those steal raises won't get caught, in which case you will have to see a showdown with the possibilty (probabilty?) that you will have the worse hand when the money goes in.

Therefore it seems a better idea, to me, to take this chance to double up and then do some steal raising when you have the additional ammunition. Whilst I admit the min raise does seem a bit suspicious, always thinking it indicates AA or KK seems like scared thinking to me, in my experience it more often than not indicates exactly what it appears to - weakness. Given the fact that the raiser could just as easily have AK, AQ, AJ and possibly KQ as he could a pocket pair it makes it an easy push for me. Even if he has a pocket pair you are getting better than even odds and at this stage with the blinds so high a 50/50 gamble seems OK to me.

[hhboy77]

at a typical table, if he told you that he had qq or less and that he would call regardless of what you did, i think you would be correct in pushing all in. with 450 in blind money, you're risking 1130 to win 1580. the blinds give you more than enough of an overlay to take a chance.

there only exception here is if you have a specific read on him that says he has aa or kk. if you've played before and he's done this and showed aa then rethink your play.

the other factor that might nudge you is if you are at the tightest table you've ever seen and pushing all in first would give you an a very high chance to steal of the blinds. i doubt that's the case. you'd still have to be very sure he didn't have aq, aj or ak for that matter. with two hands before the blinds eat up 40% of your stack, it's unlikely that you'll find a clearly better situation.

no one likes being short stacked, but part of poker is gambling. it's what makes tourneys fun.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
You will see a hand better than this (any pair) about 1 in 17 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Although I agree with much of what you say, this statement is quite wrong. You should prefer AK over 22. 22 is very slightly better against three hands: AK, 22, and AA, and the benefit against AA should not count, since AA is about half as likely if you hold AK as it is if you hold 22. Both are about 2:1 favorites over hands including a 2. AK is clearly better against everything else. AKo wins 65% against a random hand. 22 wins 50% against a random hand. AK is a favorite in most 3-way hands. 22 is usually a clear underdog, and often a huge underdog in a 3-way hand. Yet people still say AK is "only a drawing hand" and 22 is a "made hand."

AK is a much better hand than a low pocket pair. AK is a premium hand. Push with the AK. It's not close.

[HajiShirazu]

There are tough decisions in SNG's, pushing with AK when you have less than 4bb is never ever one of them.
The guy could show me 88 and I would still push, you need to win a coinflip to cash in this tournament.

[C M Burns]

I agree that you'd be better w/ Ak than the smaller pairs, i just meant that it is unlikley that you will get anything that could in any sense be considered better than ak when it still matters. in reality the only calling allin hands here that would really be better would be qq and up, so you'd get that about 1 in 73 hands and even qq is close.