10's 1 before button, limped in, is this too weak?

[RoyalSampler]

Folded to me, 1 before the button, I limped in. Button, SB and BB called. As soon as I did this I was berating myself for being so weak. End result; an ace flopped, I checked, someone bet, I got out of there, it went to showdown and he had it.

But is it so bad? If I limp I can possibly take down a big pot if the 10 comes and someone else has hit TPTK, too pair or a lower set or even TP fair kicker.

If I raise, say 1/2 the time I would get called, the other half I make 1.5BB. When I do get called (with 3BB raise), by say BB, then pot would be 8.5BB. If I simplify this extremely by assuming they have over cards, they are 30% to hit on the flop, so lets so I always pot bet the flop and they only call if they have something. Then we have

50% * 1.5BB
50% * 70% * 8.5BB
- 50% * 30% * (4BB + 8.5BB)
~ 3BB per hand

Now could I to equal this with the set, I would need 3BB * 8 + 1BB * 7 (to cover losses) = 31BB everytime I hit my set!?

Wow, maybe the agressive play was right, or my math is wrong, haven't double checked it, but interested in thoughts. Thanks

[rory]

Raise every time here, because you probably have the best hand. TT is a monster here. Also...

If you raise, everyone may fold and you win the blinds, which is a good show for TT.

If you raise the button may fold so that if the blinds call, you will have the best position.

If you raise and it is checked to you on the flop, even if an overcard to your tens flops, and you bet, you might win the pot right there.

Raise here every time, bet the flop if checked to every time and only take your foot off the gas if either the board gets really scary or you meet some resistance.

Limping here is awful don't ever do it again.

Just to drive the point home more, here is what I suggest:

Raise here with 99. Raise with 88, 77. 66 and lower if you think you might just win the blinds. Raise with A7 and up if you think you can win the blinds. Raise with KQ, KJ, KT. Raise with QJ. Raise with any hand you are going to play. And when the flop comes, come out betting most of the time. Be aggressive-- you will be very surprised at how often your opponents fold when you bet.

-rory

[MicroBob]

rory is correct. this is an obvious raise.

your calculations aside.....you have the best hand here (most likely) so you raise....pretty much that simple.


if there were 3 or 4 limpers to me and i had this....i would still raise (others might limp). reason is simple....i am guessing that i have the best hand here (again).


you'll be amazed at how much easier the hands can be when you play them aggreesively.


hang out in the SS and/or ML forums (which is where this post probably belongs actually) and you can learn much. i know i sure do.

[RoyalSampler]

Thanks rory, yeh I'm normally a pretty aggressive player I just got a little limp last week because I had to rebuy after a bad run, but last night put be back ahead. I never did the numbers and realized just how much difference it makes. I didn't even consider the chance of hitting your set after you raise!!! Then you'll take it home.

I like your comments, I'm going to bump my late position aggression up. Just thinking, the math I just did for 1010 would work very similar for even low pockets! But betting pocket ducks into a board is tough.

One question, with pockets, do you bet into any flop, having shown agression? Assuming first position or checked to you. Or are you a little more sensative?

[RoyalSampler]

Thanks, I'll wonder over there for an oogle now...

[rory]

Dunno, depends on the board and how many people called. If I raise and the button, the SB and the BB all call and the flop comes AKQ, all one suit, I'm done with my little pocket pair. If one person calls and the flop comes K56 and it is checked to me, well them I'm going to have to take those chips in the middle and put them in my stack by betting the pot-- it doesn't even matter what two cards I happened to raise on are.

So, it depends. But if you are in doubt, you can't go wrong by making a strong bet if checked to more often than not. Just don't do it all the time or people will catch on. Be greedy, though. I'd check my worst hands (like the little pocket pair into that terrible flop with multiple callers), and my best hands (say I flop top set or something). Mix it up a little but make sure to keep firing chips into the pot most of the time if nobody else is showing any strength.

Think about it this way:

You have 33, you raise and the BB calls. The flop comes AT4, and he has TK. How do you think he feels when he checks to you and you bet the pot at him? I am betting he is not feeling so good about his T. If you are playing live and you watch him, he probably will not look so happy about his T either. So even if he calls and then checks to you again you can give it another shot to make him fold his T. Had you just been checking you would have no chance to win the pot, but by betting you win pots you should not have won on your hand alone.

bet bet bet

-rory

[astroglide]

[ QUOTE ]
If you raise, everyone may fold and you win the blinds, which is a good show for TT.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm over a big bet per hand with TT, which is more than the blinds even in a 15/30 game. still, i raise this for value every time because people defend their blinds a lot, and with much worse hands.