AK hand

[Ian J]

First hand of a Party $50 SnG so no reads yet. I'm in the CO w/ AKo. One limper and I raise to T75 (10/15 blinds). The SB and the limper call. 3-way action. Pot has T230 or so.

Flop is Q 4 3 rainbow. Checked to me and I bet T175, SB calls and limper folds. Turn is an 8. Check-check. River is an Ace and now the SB bets T350 into the 525 pot.

Call, raise, or fold?

Results to follow.

[slogger]

One thing I'm trying to do more often is consider the big picture of the tournament when making decisions early on.

Here, if you fold, you've lost less than 1/5 of your stack and shouldn't have much difficulty working your way back, whereas you're left w/ less than 1/2 a stack if you call his AQ, flopped set, or garbage 2-pair.

I can't see him calling the flop bet and then betting the river with anything worse than AK here. What the hell does he put you on that would that would allow him to make this river bet? I know I'd have you on AK (but I suppose 99-JJ also make sense).

[deacsoft]

I call, and probably lose to his 2 pair. You getting a bit less than 3 to 1 on you call, but I'd have to say that your hand has at least that chance of being best.

[schwza]

I'd call. The only hands I think it's likely you'll lose to are 33, 44, and AQ, and I think AQ would probably not have slow-played TPTK. Although to be honest I'm having a hard time picturing any hand he could have had except 65s. I'd still call though.

[DrPhysic]

The way I see it, if he flopped a trip he might slow play the flop, but most players will hit that hand hard on the turn. If he tripped the 8 on the turn he would probably have bet it. His river bet tells you he has an Ax. (x meaning anything but another A) If the x is a pair, you lose.

There are only 12 cards out that make his x a pair 3 ea Q, 8, 4, 3. There are 28 cards out that make his x not a pair, 4 ea of J, T, 9, 7, 6, 5, 2. Obviously the three Ks make a tie. Do I think the avg player early in a SNG will bet hard but not push with Ax one pair? You betcha, therefore I do not think there is information to be gathered from his river bet as to whether he has 1P aces or 2P.

You have about 2.3/1 odds of winning the hand. His 350 bet puts you in a position of having 2.5/1 pot odds. Obviously the K is a tie.

This hand is close but I fold, even with the odds apparently very slightly in my favor, because the possibility that my assumption about his having flopped the trip may be wrong changes the odds to being slightly against me.

It is early in the tournament. You will catch a hand with better odds if you have patience.

If my math or logic is not correct, I invite any of the mathwiz types to correct it, please. I, too, am trying to learn how to play the difficult hands, and usually AKo is one of them.

Doc

[Sam T.]

Maybe things are different at the $50 buy-ins, but at $10 this is an easy call for the following reasons:

1) The question, "What does he put you on?" simply doesn't apply. Most $10 players don't think to ask.

2) In a $10 game the answer to the question, "Would he bet t350 with a hand that doesn't beat TPTK?" is "Yes." You'll see A7 or A2 all the time.

[DrPhysic]

The above applies only to the tournament setting. In a ring game I trust my judgement about the betting on the flop and turn, take the small percentage advantage, and call.

Doc

[slogger]

I agree with your sentiments completely Sam, but this river bet, in the context of the hand, as it's been played to this point, smells like a value bet from a decent opponent (even if it were at a 10+1 table).

I'm probably seeing monsters in the closet, but I think a crappy 10+1 opponent would have bet less (or maybe pushed). T350 seems too much like a well-thought-out "how much will this guyy call if he's got one pair" kind of bet.

[Sam T.]

Your point about the *amount* of the bet is a good one - most crap players I've seen would have pushed. Okay, now I'm not sure. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Beavis68]

I dont like the flop raise. The guy would have to be a moron to call with nothing. While that is possible, this seems like some kind of trap.

[Ian J]

I called and he showed me a set of 3s.