Always monsters in the closet?

[Buckshot]

I posted behind the button and everyone folded to me. I autoraised, I barely looked at my cards. I'm not familiar with the players, especially the blinds. The small blind three bet and the big blind called.

I have Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, I called.

FLOP: K/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif

The blinds checked to me. It felt like a monster was in the closet and ready to pounce, but I bet because that seemed like the correct thing to do. Both blinds called.

TURN: 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Both blinds checked again. I felt like the monster fled the closet to position itself under the bed; it's more strategic. But I bet again. This time the small blind check-raised and the big blind folded. I felt the monster had loomed over me and I was almost choked by its imminent stranglehold. I prepared myself to fire back with a reraise but didn't.

Do you?

~stephen

[rory]

The turn raise could mean AA, KK, JJ, TT or even AK or KJ depending on the opponent. It could also mean AQo, though. However I want my opponent to let me know he has AQo, and I figure that out by 3 betting the turn. If it is capped and you are bet into on the river, then you can think about just calling and not raising.

-rory

[stoxtrader]

In the party 15 I think you have to 3 bet this on the turn -there is a huge range of hands the avg player will do this with, including OESDs, 4 flush, or pair + OESD/flush... In which case, make him pay to see the river and find a cheap showdown on the river - call a bet or bet if checked to. if he check/raises you again on 5th street and show shows AQo, then well played, but against 100 random players in the 15 I think you win more than your share even given the betting action until the turn.

stox.

[DcifrThs]

stephen,

recently, when you post a hand it seems pretty clear what you have to do.

is this live? you said "barely looked at my cards" so that means to me you have to pick them up and look at them. if so i'd have to ask for a lot more information.

the blinds checked how smooth was it? what was the sb's reaction to your bet, did he look away, at the board, at you? at your chips? were his hands shaking? was it a smooth call or a "wait, uh, ok NOW i'll call."

in either case you're nuts if you don't 3 bet...THERE IS ONE HAND you lose to, and EVERY SINGLE OTHER POSSIBLE HAND you have drawing or 100% dead. since its heads up i'd go another few bets and then if bet into on the river maybe raise again and call the 3 bet back.

this doesn't even seem remotely close.

-Barron

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
It felt like a monster was in the closet and ready to pounce

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I prepared myself to fire back with a reraise but didn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

There was indeed a monster, but it didn't pounce.

[Zele]

No question you 3-bet here. Particularly given that you came into the pot on a steal, players will take this kind of shot at you will a helluva lot less than AQ.

If you have a serious doubt about the 3-bet, you need to do some time in weak-tight reform school.

[ActionBob]

Those are some serious monsters you're seeing. Reraise, its a no brainer.

-ActionBob

[ActionBob]

However I want my opponent to let me know he has AQo, and I figure that out by 3 betting the turn. If it is capped and you are bet into on the river, then you can think about just calling and not raising.

I'd think about it for about a half a second then raise.

-ActionBoB

[J_V]

I think not 3-betting would be prudent. Especially if you are showdown bound.

[DcifrThs]

please elaborate on how not 3betting is prudent if he's showdown bound...

this line is reserved for hands that may lose equity by not showing down, may not be the best but have a decent chance of winning, but whose chance of winning goes WAY down if you 3bet AND are 4bet.

this is not the case imo.

please explain your reasoning.

-Barron

[adios]

Why not put in the raise on the river instead when the board doesn't pair? It seems like he's sure to bet into you again on the river. On the other hand if a club comes he may check on the river. Is that why you advocate raising the turn? I mean on the turn it may or may not be reasonable to assume that he has either AA,KK,JJ,TT, or AQ. I'm not sure a re-raise will tell you all that much. There's 15 ways he could have AA,KK,JJ,TT and 12 ways he could have AQ. Not sure whether or not that indicates a re-raise on the turn.

[astroglide]

uh, because the other guy could be drawing to a straight, a flush, a boat, or dead and will be putting in money with the worst of it on the turn? ya'll be high as kites.

[adios]

[ QUOTE ]
uh, because the other guy could be drawing to a straight, a flush, a boat, or dead and will be putting in money with the worst of it on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Could be but how likely is he to be doing that given the way he played the hand? If he suspect he was drawing dead why isn't it reasonable to assume that he would fold to a re-raise? To be honest I can't think of very many hands in this situation where he would be drawing dead. I also see that if you don't agree with someone you feel the need to put them down.

[astroglide]

dead would be a pair with no straight outs or some misc clown hand. i don't think it's likely, but it still merits mention just for the sake of being complete. unless the guy has AQ or Qc9c reraising rules. i'm not inclined to wait for scare cards that may stop me from raising even though i probably still have the best hands.

[adios]

[ QUOTE ]
dead would be a pair with no straight outs or some misc clown hand. i don't think it's likely, but it still merits mention.

[/ QUOTE ]

That would be a pair of 8's-3's. I feel it's silly to talk about this likelihood seriously but if hero raises the turn then I submit that it's very likely that hero's opponent folds one of these hands. If hero's opponent will check raise the turn, hero's opponent is very likely to put in a bet on the river if hero smooth calls on the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
unless the guy has AQ or Qc9c reraising rules.

[/ QUOTE ]

If hero's opponent has a set and will bet the river again and will call a raise on the river if the board doesn't pair I don't see how you could say that.

[astroglide]

That would be a pair of 8's-3's.

it isn't just 88-33, it's also Kx Jx and Tx.

If hero's opponent has a set and will bet the river again and will call a raise on the river if the board doesn't pair I don't see how you could say that.

think. you have a GUARANTEE of AT LEAST 4 bets going in if you reraise here and the board doesn't pair on the river. do you want to raise the river if a queen drops, giving anybody with an ace a straight? how about if a club drops? you want to put in as much money as possible when your opponent is drawing heads up.

[Buckshot]

Or maybe BFS (Brain Fart Syndrome) is more like it.

I was trying to get cute, drooling over the opportunity to get extra bets on the river. I thought he had at best two pair or a set and as long as the river didn't pair I figured he would overplay his hand on the end. Sounds like a good plan, right?

RIVER: T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Well, the board did pair and I didn't get in the extra bets like I wanted because my monster suddenly turned meek and I called his river bet. He showed A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

~stephen

[adios]

[ QUOTE ]
it isn't just 88-33, it's also Kx Jx and Tx

[/ QUOTE ]

Given the action to this point I think that it's very unlikely that an opponent has these additional hands. Even if they do you don't want them to fold.

[ QUOTE ]
think. you have a GUARANTEE of AT LEAST 4 bets going in if you reraise here and the board doesn't pair on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

If your opponent has a set and you make it three on the turn and your opponent calls and calls a bet on the river when the board doesn't pair you win 3 extra bets. If you call the checkraise and your opponent bets the river when the board doesn't pair and you raise I submit your opponent is almost certain to call such a raise if not hit it again. So you win 3 bets no matter what. However, if the board pairs on the river you only lose one bet assuming you were absolutely sure he had a set. You make as much when you win by waiting until the river and lose less by waiting to see the river. I also submit that if an opponent is going to give you a lot of action on the turn without the nuts, they'll often give you a lot of action on the river as well. I think my last point is open to debate btw.

However, it's probably right to raise on the turn because the flush card or a Q may kill the action. I'm just trying to point out that it may not be as clear cut as one might think. I would also think that if a flush card will kill the action on the river then an opponent without the nuts on the turn is not as likely to give excessive action on that street. I could be convinced otherwise.

[ QUOTE ]
do you want to raise the river if a queen drops, giving anybody with an ace a straight?

[/ QUOTE ]

No which would be a reason to make a raise on the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
you want to put in as much money as possible when your opponent is drawing heads up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not necessarily as I pointed out above. Also he may not be drawing and in this situation hero may be drawing dead. It boils down to what your read on your opponent and what you think he thinks you have. If you read your opponent for a KK, JJ, TT or AQ only raising may not be right at all. Your implication that the wider the range of hands that he may hold makes a stronger case for raising the turn is one that I generally agree with.