Confusing opponent knocks me off balance

[2283]

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.25 BB (10 handed)

CO ($6.75)
Button ($16.50)
SB ($35.05)
BB ($10)
UTG ($15.25)
UTG+1 ($10.60)
Hero ($16.15)
MP1 ($10.10)
MP2 ($13)
MP3 ($24.75)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to $1, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls $0.75.

Flop: ($2.10) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB bets $0.25, Hero raises to $1.75, BB raises to $3.25, Hero calls $1.50.

at the time, i called because i figured he would not try to bluff me again as his stack was getting small, so if he put the rest of his stack in i could safely fold. all i could think of is "J10." is calling here the worst play i can make?

i just couldnt believe a minbet-reraise could a real hand that wasnt two pair or a set, but i wasnt ready to fold my kings as i thought he could be putting me on AK/AQ when i raised here.

Turn: ($8.60) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

i figure this tells me nothing, if he has a great hand he probably feels like he can get it in on the river if his check-raise attempt fails, if he has a bad hand he's not putting more money in the pot. seems logical to me. i felt like if i bet he would fold a worse hand and call/raise allin with a better one, so it didnt seem worth it to fear being outdrawn.

River: ($8.60) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB bets $5.75 (All-In), Hero folds.

whether or not my plays on the other streets were bad, is this a good fold? will he really expect me to fold the hand that i raised preflop, raised the flop and then called the reraise? i mean, if he puts me on AK, then he would only bet if he had nothing at all, right? i dont think his betting here with a real hand, but one i can still beat, makes sense, as he would rather just show it down. sound right?

Final Pot: $14.35
<font color="green">Main Pot: $8.60, won by BB.</font>
<font color="green">Pot 2: $5.75, returned to BB.</font>

[gavrilo]

His stack is extremely small, I don't think he's going for the checkraise on the turn he only has like 1/2 pot left. I would set him in here if not just set him in on the flop, maybe he has JT, maybe he has AJ maybe he has Q9, you have outs if he does have two pair.

[2283]

yeah now that i think about it i dont know why he would expect me to bet as i only called his reraise. i just didnt know what to make of a minbet-reraise, and after running cold for 10 hours i was seeing monsters. next time i'm getting my chips in.

[umdpoker]

not only are you getting incredible pot odds to call on the river, but you should push it in on the turn. it isn't like you are gonna go broke on this one hand. he could easily have aj. his betting pattern tells me that he doesn't really like his hand that much, but now that you checked the turn, he has to take a stab at the pot. he may also put you on ak after the turn check. i think you are good here way over half of the time, which is substantially higher than the odds the pot is giving you.

[umdpoker]

"i just didnt know what to make of a minbet-reraise, and after running cold for 10 hours i was seeing monsters."

don't feel too bad, i do the same thing. STOP IT! the more i see other people making the same mistakes i do, the harder it is for me to change.

[riverboatking]

seriously. that is one of the weakest tightest worst laydowns. its not like your playing deep stacks here. at the limits your playing your overpair will be good like 80% of the time. push the turn and get paid off. the two times in ten you lose won't nearly cost as much as the eight times you win.

[2283]

[ QUOTE ]
he may also put you on ak after the turn check.

[/ QUOTE ]

my thinking was, since he called my PF raise and then reraised me on the flop, won't he beat ace high 95% of the time? if he puts me on AK and can beat it, he doesn't need to bet the river to win, and it's not like i can call with A high, right?

[ QUOTE ]
not only are you getting incredible pot odds to call on the river

[/ QUOTE ]

aw cmon, around 2/5. i call those "good" odds.

but anyway i think we agree that i should have called the river.

[umdpoker]

"he puts me on AK and can beat it, he doesn't need to bet the river to win, and it's not like i can call with A high, right?"

perhaps he was on a straight draw that missed? perhaps he even thinks you might have an overpair, and he needs you to fold to win?

[2283]

thanks, seriously. i pretty much knew it already but i need to have this sort of tilt mocked out of me.

if i have a string of bad breaks i start trying to make up ways i can be losing in the hand and fold to "limit my losses" whereas if everything were going fine i'd just smile and wait for my pot.

i think the biggest strength in my game is folding losing hands, but my biggest leak is folding winning ones.

[2283]

[ QUOTE ]
perhaps he was on a straight draw that missed? perhaps he even thinks you might have an overpair, and he needs you to fold to win?

[/ QUOTE ]

the missed straight draw is a possibility, maybe i need to amend the 95%. but i doubt the second part, even i, one of the tightest players in the .25 games, would not "normally" consider folding an overpair on that board with that action.