"Sorry guy, pot odds"

[ddubois]

I'm assuming my opponent with his short stack will make this move with "top 25% (48 hands): all pairs and aces, KT-KQ, K7s-K9s, QTs-QJs" (http://home.earthlink.net/~craighowald/data/matchup2.html). To which 62o is a 1:2.4 dog. But the pot is laying me 825:325. So is this a good call? I went on to win this tournament, but I felt guilty about it. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="C00000">Hero (t1300)</font>
UTG (t2310)
<font color="C00000">MP (t525)</font>
Button (t2080)
SB (t1785)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP raises to t525 (All-In)</font>, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls t325,

Flop: (t1150) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t1150) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t1150) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t1150
<font color="green">Main Pot: t1150 (t1150), between Hero and MP.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by Hero (t1150).</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
Hero shows 6c 2s (three of a kind, sixes).
MP shows Td Ts (two pair, tens and sixes).
Outcome: Hero wins t1150. </font>

[Nemesis]

I think this is a good application of that principle. I will call a LOT with any two as long as it isn't like 2/3o
but that seems like a reasonable play you made.

[schwza]

i think i'd fold. you are getting marginally +EV if you're right about his pushing requirements (i think you're making a decent guess), but it's a significant chunk of your stack to call there. i think it's one of those would-be-right-in-ring-game-but-wrong-in-tourney spots.

[Jason Strasser]

Two things:

1) You make this call with any 2.

2) You don't feel bad because it's happened to you.

[jlukowski]

can u explain why the pot odds are 1:2.4

[ddubois]

Click the link

[hop]

I'd fold here. You need to differentiate chip EV and $EV. Your chip EV is slightly positive, but your $EV is negative. The principle "coin flips always benefit bystanders" applies here. Your call hurts both him and yourself.

[Jason Strasser]

Hmmm. It's closer than I thought. Disregard my stern language in my first post. Against most people I call here, because its a correct call against 2 over cards.

[Beavis68]

[ QUOTE ]
can u explain why the pot odds are 1:2.4

[/ QUOTE ]

525 +100sb+200BB= 825
325 to call 825:325 825/325=2.54 actually 2.54:1

[Sam T.]

I'm not saying you made the wrong play (Jason is right, you call with any two), but I'm not sure that "pot odds" is the reason. You can justify all manner of calls based on the pot-odds that would make sense in a ring game, but don't make sense in a tournament, particularly in the early stages.

For example, I flop a OESD, and someone makes a big bet. In a ring game I call if I have the pot (or implied) odds. In this situation I am risking my money to win his money. In a tournament, I probably fold because I am risking my entire buy-in (money) in order to win chips with no guarantee that there is a pot of gold at the end of this rainbow. I could still bust out in fourth, thus winning nothing at all.

If I am completely out to lunch on this, please let me know!

[MrBlini]

This is very marginally correct against two unsuited overcards, just about even odds against two suited overcards and pairs 55-33, marginally wrong against 22, A6, A2, and K6s, and terribly wrong against any pair AA-66.

Call me tight, but I'd fold getting less than 3:1 here.

[fnurt]

I typically want better than 3:1 before I consider this an automatic call. It's one thing when it requires a trivial portion of your stack, but another thing when you're putting 25% of your chips in the pot voluntarily.

The pot odds may even be there in your example, I just wouldn't personally consider it a big enough edge.

[PrayingMantis]

If your 25% estimation is correct (i.e, he isn't too tight), then you CEV on this move is +20 chips. IMO, this is very marginal, since you put 30% of your stack (after posting) on the line, without being the aggressor. If you are any better than your opponents, and you know how to use a medium-short stack on the bubble, it's a clear fold, for me at least. I'd need a somewhat better hand, a bit less chips to call (in proportion to my stack) and a more desperate disposition.

Edit: In other words, you are increasing you variance here, while achieving almost nothing, expect if busting this specific opponent is very important to you.

[ddubois]

In the mooment, I didn't calculate what my odds actually were. I knew it was "approaching 900" and "roughly 300" to call, and figured that was close enough. It was actually worse than I thought it was. And once I saw his cards it was MUCH worse of a matchup than I had hoped. I figured he probably had two overcards for 1:2, not an overpair for 1:7. What a suck out.

Anyways...

What kind of odds would I want in order to play any 2 cards if there were two "desperation" all-ins? 1:5? 1:7? 1:10?

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qc Jc 598154 43.64 769416 56.13 3184 0.23 0.437
6s 2h 172335 12.57 1195235 87.20 3184 0.23 0.126
Td Th 597081 43.56 770489 56.21 3184 0.23 0.436

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qc Jc 602788 43.97 764462 55.77 3504 0.26 0.441
6s 2h 273691 19.97 1093559 79.78 3504 0.26 0.201
Ad 8h 490771 35.80 876479 63.94 3504 0.26 0.359