Loose game but 2/3 callers only what next?

[TJD]

Would someone help me out please?

I have played for 18 months or so and have recently started playing at Party $3/$6.

The games are loose but not quite as loose as at the lower limits at some other sites I have played. There are often a couple of tighter players at the table and except for the occasional really loose player, the other loose players at least have some standards. This means that although many pots are multiway sometimes there are fewer players seeing the flop.

I would like advice on what to do when there are fewer players. As an example, consider that I have T4o in the BB (the SB has folded) and get a free play. The flop is K72r.

If there are 4+ opponents, this, to me, is a "you need to show 'em the best hand" scenario and I will check/fold.

If there is one opponent then it is unarmed combat and without any knowledge of my opponent...... However, this HU battle is not my concern here.

BUT what to do if 2/3 opponents???

In both cases I have pot odds to run a bluff by betting at the pot if they will fold hands that are not pocket pairs or have hit the flop. But this ONLY works if they WILL actually fold. Now if I know my opponents I may have a reasonable idea whether to bet or not but what should I do if I do not know them?

Obviously, top pair will call/raise and many(most?) players will call with any part of the flop.

However, a guy with A9o could well call with the expectation that hitting an Ace will win or even hoping that a 9 will be OK.

Also, someone with QTs and one of his suit on the flop might call on the flop thinking a) he might actually have the best hand with his Q and b) if not, hitting either of his cards might be good or c) any Q,T,A,J or one of his suit gives a draw to beat top pair.

Given these possible callers, a bet on the Turn might win the pot if they do not improve. However, if they decide to stay anyway or already have a pair then I am merely feeding the pot for their benefit.

I have tried to work this problem out but am having little success. In the absence of firm knowledge of my opponents what is the "normal" best approach in Party $3/%6?

Thanks all

Trevor

[TJD]

Hi all,

Have I put this in the wrong forum or is the question too hard? :-)

trevor

[adanthar]

Every time I see some guy like you bet all the way down from the BB on rags into 3 people and river a ten, I make a note. Every time I see someone with a note bet from the BB, I tend to call down mediocre aces. Call it a hunch.

Also, this is one of the better ways to lose a lot of money I've ever seen.

[blubster]

lol TJD

well the easy answer is try to stick with the looser tables. if a table gets too tight just get up and go to another one

blubster

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
well the easy answer is try to stick with the looser tables. if a table gets too tight just get up and go to another one

[/ QUOTE ]
Going to a looser table is not going to make betting T high into 3 people a better idea. Trust me on that one.

[scottjack]

i'd tend to think that in a truly tight game, among 'only' 2-3 players, that at least one of them would have something that would beat me in this situation.

[TJD]

Thx for the reply.

Your reply is very interesting. It indicates the need to "know" your opponents. What about the situation where we do not?

However, what if you had Q or J high and I bet (assuming you had the note) would you still call down?

Also, I will of course be betting out the same way if I HAVE hit. Of course it is more likely that I have missed than hit, but if I have hit then you will be losing money rather than me :-).

Assuming you will fold some of your hands that have me beat (J high or T with a better kicker, (Q high) say)then especially with 2 opponents getting 3.5 -1 on a bluff, is it possible that this bet from the BB is still +EV?

Also, another point comes to mind. Assuming you note me making this play and rivering a T, but this was a rare shot at the pot for me, are you not in danger of losing a lot of money to me in the future since this rare play will cause you to call too often when I am betting top pair?

What if your note said that I only ever bet at the pot when I have hit. Now you will fold and I will not earn any money from you when I get a good hand /images/graemlins/frown.gif.

Is applying game theory right; should I bet at the pot twice in 7 times? Or are the majority of players not taking enough notice to bother?

I am not saying you are wrong. I do not know. That is why I made the post. These situations are difficult. I feel that these stabs at the pot are marginal but that may be the frequency that they fail /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

At $3/$6 Party does the likelihood of getting called either by players like you who have a "note" on me or by the sheer willingness of other opponents to call make this play -EV?

Cheers

Thanks again for your time

Trevor

[TJD]

Thx for taking the time to reply.

So does this mean that you will NEVER take a shot at the pot with a bluff and always check/fold?

Is it not correct that 2 opponents will miss the flop 4/9 of the time or so?

I would appreciate some more views. It could be that Party is just so loose that there is no EV in taking a stab despite the apparent pot odds. Being new to the site, I have no idea which is why I am asking you lot /images/graemlins/smile.gif

TYIA

Trevor

[adanthar]

Honestly, at 3/6, betting into 3 people, you will be called down by the following hands:

-Any pair, by 2/3 of the table
-Any draw (which will often call the river, too, especially if he hits one of the cards he was drawing with, including a 3), by 1/2 of the table
-Any ace, by 1/3 of the table
-Random checkraising with K high by 1/4 of the table

Party is profitable because so many people call everything, not because you can bluff with trash. If you do, you'll lose money.

[TJD]

Thx again.

The comment about general looseness is very useful TY.

In respect to the other specific comments you made

[ QUOTE ]
Any pair, by 2/3 of the table


[/ QUOTE ]

Yup if they hit or have a PP, I expect a call. The odds for one or both of 2 players to hit is 5/9. There is also the chance the have a pair so that will make it a bit more


[ QUOTE ]
Any draw

[/ QUOTE ]

I would only consider this play if there were no draws; like on the K72r I described. Since if there is a draw, they will have odds to chase (or at least be close).


[ QUOTE ]
Any ace, by 1/3 of the table

[/ QUOTE ]

This is my greatest concern; folks calling with just big cards since I am behind, yet if I have what I am representing, they do NOT have the odds (loose or intelligent play by them?)


[ QUOTE ]
Random checkraising with K high by 1/4 of the table

[/ QUOTE ]

They can't CR me of course since I am first to bet (required for this bluff). However, if I bet and am raised; I'm gone!

So the real concern seems to be the total chance of getting called by:-

a) those who have hit
b) those with a PP
c) those with an Ace
d) those hoping for runner/runner

However, against this is the chance that, in this small pot, you think that 1/3 of the table will fold a pair below Kings.

Ummm...

I wonder how all those chances add up?

Of course just check/fold has the least variance and MOST of the opponents probably will not notice that I only bet when I have the goods and refuse to give me action when I do.

I just wonder whether there can be any EV at all in running this bluff.

It is probably just too close to call /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Any other views?

Trevor