Party is not rigged... confidence is shot though

[Uglyowl]

Hello all,

For awhile I was having a large stretch of "bad luck" where I was getting sucked out alot on all-ins by stupid calls and what not and was convinced the deck was stacked against me. Since then I started to track my all-ins and see what my expected wins were (used twodimes.net) and added up the %'s and things even out in the end:

Expected wins: 49.7
Actual wins: 49

So things even out.. I have got my share of "lucky" cards too.

Anyhow I have been playing like crap and not feeling confident which has completely ruined my game. Has the game gotten better in the past week?

I noticed that I do overbet sometimes with what I think are strong hands.... I have been playing TT and JJ like they are gold and have been getting burned with them, which didn't happen for the longest time. I think I need to start to play perfect poker cuz' the little advantage that I may have has been negated by stupid moves. Just needed to vent and I guess "apologize" to Party for questioning them as everything seems on the up and up.

-Joe

[Colby818]

It has seemed to me over the last few weeks that the caliber of play at Party seems slightly up. I'm only sitting at the $5/1 level because of payroll constraints. I used to be able to book at least a 50% roi at that level, sometimes having long stretches where it would start approaching 60-70% since I could virtually always cash.

It stands to reason like anything else in the world that things are cyclical. likely, some of the fish have moved to different games, different sites or even walked away for a period of time. Still, a new WSOP will hit the airwaves and people will see that 'some random internet guy(I know Greg isn't this, but everyone I've heard talk about it says this)' won the tourney again. And again, people will come flocking back to the sites.

Download some of your hand histories. Look for hands you lost or even hands you won or didn't play and see if there are plays you need to change. I took this advice yesterday and then went out last night and cashed on 5 straight tourneys the first 5 I sat down. Not surprisingly, my confidence came back mid-first game when I saw I was playing well and with confidence and aggressiveness, things started falling my way. Of course, the 6th game I got cute, overplayed TPTK and busted out 8th. I laughed when I lost, logged off and called it a night. Poker has a wonderful habit of dealing out reality checks. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

good luck

[joker1976]

Recently I have over 600 games of extreme bad luck, the cards do win the right percentage, but I win most of them when I was super short stacked and lost most of the critical big stack allin move. When it was four or five handed and the blind was huge, even I was dealt AQ, I often run into QQ and AA. I am not winning half of what I used to win, and from my observation, Party player doesn't seem to be any smarter than two month ago, I am still wondering what the heck is wrong.

I have played over 4000 SnGs and have experienced many bad streaks, but nothing like what it is now. I have another account at empire poker that I rarely plays. Two weeks ago I started to play there and also on one of my friend's account, later I have accumulated 250 games with very good results on both accounts. Then I changed back to my party poker account, my luck suddenly disappeared and results are again horrible. Considering that some of the best players always make the top of the leader board, I have a hard time to believe that the site has any problem, but the whole party "luck" thing definitely makes me uncomfortable.

[Uglyowl]

I know that the play isn't any better now that I think about it... First hand of tourney guy goes all in after a small raise (A6), and then the next guy calls his all-in (QQ), the first guy with the small raise thinks for a second and calls (33). LOL... I guess I am just not lucky enough to have the queens in that situation.

Also my KK's have not been holding up at all. Oh well... things will change. Even with this "horrid" run I am staying even... oh well. Money making will continue at one point, but I have been stuck in the same spot forever it seems.

-Joe

[Jason Strasser]

Here is my bad beat story: Dealt A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. I raise to 150 in EP (blinds 25/50). Button calls, the rest fold.

Flop: K /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gifT /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. I check, he checks. (I dont get a lot of practice playing royals)

Turn: 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. I check, he checks. (I'm so bad)

River: 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif I bet 150, he folds.

Now that is a bad beat story.

[Colby818]

[ QUOTE ]
Here is my bad beat story: Dealt A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. I raise to 150 in EP (blinds 25/50). Button calls, the rest fold.

Flop: K /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gifT /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. I check, he checks. (I dont get a lot of practice playing royals)

Turn: 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. I check, he checks. (I'm so bad)

River: 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif I bet 150, he folds.

Now that is a bad beat story.

[/ QUOTE ]

Boo!!! Did you at least show? Such a shame not to get any action on that.

Those are the toughest plays ever. I always sit there and think... now if I were the worst player ever, how might I bet a random hand on this board? Probably doesn't matter. Your great first raise killed this hand. He probably had a small pocket pair or suited connecter. I'd have probably tried check flop, limp river. I'm guessing he sniffed you out and would have folded to your limp though.

I always tell people these stories when they complain about not getting 4 of a Kind or Royal Flush in hold'em. I've taken a few decent pots with 4 of a kind, but have generally had trouble getting action with anything straight flush or better. People just sniff it out too easily.

[joker1976]

typical situation(just happened):
AA lost to KQs, flush
huge blind, SB small raise, I read him as loose aggressive, reraise allin with 55, he called with 43s, board A 3 3 4 9
huge blind bubble, dealt AQ, push, called by QQ or AA
huge blind bubble, dealt A5, push, called by AT
huge blind bubble, dealt AT, push, called by AQ
huge blind bubble, dealt A9, push, called by JJ
huge blind bubble, called from late position with TJ, and hit top pair J, bet, called and lost to trip 8
Huge blind bubble and I am the biggest stack, starting to play aggressive, K9 raise called by AA, TT raise called by QQ, QT raise called by A9, lost all three and finished 4th


Now I play mostly on Empire and only a few games each day on Party to see if my luck switches. This may sound ridiculous, but it seems to be the only way. My normal win rate is 30% ROI, but for the latest streak, I had 200 games 9% ROI, 200 games 25% ROI, another 200 games 11% ROI, totalled 15% ROI for 600 games, still making money but disappointing. Bad beat is a part of the game, just have to wait and see.

[joker1976]

I would have bet minimum on flop, on turn, big bet on river, make it looks like you are on a draw and a bluff on river.

[ddubois]

You post reminded me of a hand I butchered:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="C00000">saw showdown</font>

SB (t1400)
<font color="C00000">Hero (t1165)</font>
UTG (t760)
MP1 (t935)
MP2 (t1660)
CO (t685)
<font color="C00000">Button (t1395)</font>

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="666666">4 folds</font>, Button calls t50, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, Hero checks,

Flop: (t125) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">Button bets t100</font>, Hero calls t100.

Turn: (t325) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">Button bets t50</font>, Hero calls t50.

River: (t425) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets t100</font>, Button calls t100.

Final Pot: t625
<font color="green">Main Pot: t625 (t625), between Hero and Button.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by Hero (t625).</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
Hero shows 3s 3d (four of a kind, threes).
Button shows As Ks (two pair, aces and threes).
Outcome: Hero wins t625. </font>

[joker1976]

4 more games I played today, one 2nd place, the rest:

JJ vs 77 allin lost to trip
AJ vs 59 flop J 9 9
99 vs AK allin flop 9 4 2, ok, i am going to win this hand, right? wrong! of course the next two cards are 3 5, straight

[spacemonkey57]

[ QUOTE ]
You post reminded me of a hand I butchered:


[/ QUOTE ]

I've got that beat. I flopped four tens with something like six limpers at a party .50-1 game. I checked the flop and it was checked through. I bet the turn and got one caller. I bet the river and the guy folded. I was very unsatisfied with the one big bet I picked up after the flop.