Hate this flop

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

'Stars 50 FPP multi this morning. 79 started, 62 left. 2 get a seat in the 5000 FPP super to the WCOOP main eventon Saturday.

Blinds are 15/30, I have 1695 (a bit less than average).

I'm UTG+1 with A /images/graemlins/heart.gif A /images/graemlins/club.gif

UTG limps, I make it 150 to go, MP2 calls, UTG calls. Pot=495

Flop: Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

UTG checks, I bet 400, MP2 calls

Turn: 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif

My dilemma: I don't like the flop call by MP2. People overplay flush draws at this level, but it could be a Q trapping me. I have a simple choice, all-in or check.

Who does what?

[MLG]

I say push, at this level, people will not only be overplaying flushdraws, but also JJ, 1010, 99, 88, and maybe even A-7. If there was no flush draw, i think a check is ok, but if he's overplaying that draw I hate giving him the possibility of a free card.

[37offsuit]

Assuming UTG folded. It's entirely possible that he's put you on a missed AK. People rarely give credit for aces and don't want to think that just because you bet out on the flop that you've nailed a paired board. Yes, you could be in a bad spot here but you could also be against a smaller pocket pair, A7 a flush draw, etc. I'd have to push here.

[juris]

I fold at that level. He called your 400 and isn't likely going anywhere, unless you know more about the caller than stated.

If people think you're lying about the Queens or overpair I think they raise the flop, and call if they have trips.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold at that level.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is the definition of weak-tight when you fold out of turn because you expect your opponent to bet?

[SossMan]

Interesting post.

I think this is a spot where you are way ahead or way behind. If you are behind, you have 2 outs (5%). If you are ahead, he has anywhere from 2 outs (5%) to 8 outs (17%).

I would check and see what he does. If he has a pocket pair, he will likely make a stab at the pot. If he has a queen, he will likely make a stab at the pot. If he has a flush draw, he will likely check (unless he has exactly 2x /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, in which case he would likely make a stab at the pot)

With all the possible hands he could have that he would bet into you that you are killing, I would check and call any bet.
This is much better than betting out, IMO. I can't see him calling an all in w/ just a flush draw w/ one card to come. He may pay you off w/ an underpair, but it's not all that likely.
I think he will bet underpair hands 77-JJ if checked to, but likely fold if bet into.

I would be most scared if you checked and he underbet the pot. That is the most likely course of action for a QJ/QK/QA type hand.

If he pushes after you check, I think it's an easy call.

[MLG]

Your right that he doesn't really get paid off by any hand that he's beating if he bets the turn, but I think that trade off is worth it for shutting out flush draws, although I'm really not sure what the math to back-up that instinct is. If he has a flush draw or underpair I would have no problem picking this pot up here and not getting the bluff money.

[Martin Aigner]

Kurn,

3 things to do in this spot:

1) check
2) call
3) pray

Best regards

Martin Aigner

[DOTTT]

I'd push in here. Here's my reasoning based on the few times I’ve played these satellites. Most players in these tournaments are below average players, and may even have very little tournament experience. So it's my opinion that if mp2 is holding a queen here, he would have raised you on the flop, fearing you're on a flush draw yourself. I'd put him on a flush draw with Ax, or some kind of middle pocket pair. It's possible he could have 77 or Q7, but that's a chance you're going to have to take, you can't give a free or cheap card here.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I checked, he pushed in, I folded and immediately was annoyed with myself.
/images/graemlins/confused.gif

[SossMan]

Would he play a flush draw like that? probably

Does this mean he has a flush draw? no.

That flop call can mean a lot of hands. I still put him on an underpair, maybe a queen.

I hate the way Kurn played it. If you're going to fold, you have to at least make him raise you. Once you check, you have to call, IMO. If you're going to fold, you have to at least give him a chance to fold first.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I hate the way Kurn played it. If you're going to fold, you have to at least make him raise you. Once you check, you have to call, IMO. If you're going to fold, you have to at least give him a chance to fold first.

I agree except for one thing. Considering the size of my stack and the size of the pot, there is no bet I can make on the turn other than one that commits all my chips. If I bet, say, 400, it looks weak and a raise does not mean I'm beaten.

Thus the right play was to check and call, as he might bet a hand I can beat but he'd fold something like JJ if I pushed in.

[MLG]

What's your plan here if he checks behind you both if a diamond hits, and if a blank hits?

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
What's your plan here if he checks behind you both if a diamond hits, and if a blank hits?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, i hope its the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif

boy, that's rough. The problem is that by checking the turn, you don't know where you stand. I would probably check call any diamond.

I would go ahead and bet like T700 if what looked like a blank came and hope he calls w/ the underpair.
I don't think most players would check behind w/ a queen w/ the flush draw out there.

Interesting hand.