newbie bubble trouble [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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dfscott

06-23-2004, 11:40 AM

Don't be fooled by my number of posts -- I'm a rookie as far as tournament play is concerned.

I've been having lots of bubble trouble lately. The last 2 SnGs I've gone out 4th. I think one of them was a huge mistake and the other was ok, but I'd like to get some feedback.

Bubble #1:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|saw showdown

Button (t6250)
SB (t2445)
Hero (t2440)
UTG (t2365)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, Button folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t675) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
SB bets t800, Hero raises to t2015, SB calls t1215.

Turn: (t4705) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)

River: (t4705) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)

Final Pot: t4705
Main Pot: t4705 (t4705), between SB and Hero. > Pot won by SB (t4705).

Results in white below: 
SB shows Ah 9d (one pair, nines).
Hero shows 6c 2c (one pair, sixes).
Outcome: SB wins t4705. 

This was just stupid, right? This table was very weak so I thought I could push people around. I posted this mainly just to publicly humilate myself so I never go all-in with bottom pair on the bubble again.

Bubble #2:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed)

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG (t2485)
Button (t6815)
SB (t2255)
Hero (t1945)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG raises to t1200, Button folds, SB folds, Hero raises to t1920, UTG calls t720.

Flop: (t3890) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)

Turn: (t3890) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)

River: (t3890) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)

Final Pot: t3890
Main Pot: t3890 (t3890), between UTG and Hero. > Pot won by UTG (t3890).

Results in white below: 
UTG shows Th Qs (two pair, tens and eights).
Hero shows 6c 6s (two pair, eights and sixes).
Outcome: UTG wins t3890. 

Ok, I feel a lot better about this one. I was short-stacked and had a pocket pair (albiet a low one). However, being on the bubble, am I better off just waiting for someone else to make a mistake even if I do run the risk of being blinded out?

eastbay

06-23-2004, 11:45 AM

#1: You're stupid.
#2: The other guy's stupid.

eastbay

Colby818

06-23-2004, 12:14 PM

hand #1 - I might make that move were I first to act. The problem with what you did is that you have to figure there is an above average chance that he calls your allin and that you are behind when he does. The size of his raise to me says Q low kicker or A9. This is based on your assessment that it was a crappy table. I don't expect a crafty play from a crappy player. I could construct an argument for this call if you thought the guy was bluffing at it, but even then 66 isn't the hand I usually look to cripple a bluffer with.

hand #2 - 66 is a low enough pocket pair that I might have dropped it to that raise. again, this is read dependant. clearly, you were ahead at the time you made the move, so I don't think it was the wrong move. Again, if you think your opponent would be bluffing at a pot with half his stack, it's a good call. As with the first hand though, I'd expect that most players I've seen online would call your all-in here.

I guess my advice would be to think through your thought process. In both situations, what was your thinking when you made your bet? When you get down to the end, and are short stacked, you have to start looking for the hand you want to take your stand on. And you have to ask yourself, do you want to take that stand with 66? Maybe I'm too tight, but I don't think I push on either of these hands given the way the betting came out.

schwza

06-23-2004, 01:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
#1: You're stupid.
#2: The other guy's stupid.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

that's interesting.... i disagree. i'd say:
#1: i would have folded, but pushing is not as dumb as you might think. there's a good chance bad guy is stealing with no pair and he'll fold, and if you get called you'll have a ~25% chance to win.
#2: you were both stupid. but you were a lot stupider. when you push, you know you'll get called. you're saying "please oh please let me be a coinflip and not a 4.5:1 underdog". this sucks. you should fold here and wait for a chance where you can steal (or where you have a legitimate hand). note that when you push the SB is saying "holy crap this is totally awesome no matter who wins." his gain means your loss, so you need a much bigger hand than 66 to play here. if you had 99 or TT, i'd say it'd be a tough decision.

Sam T.

06-23-2004, 01:54 PM

Hand 1: Remember that once you are all in, you lose all your leverage to make him fold - he will see the turn and river no matter what. While it is true that he may be trying to steal the pot, it is also true that unless he's betting absolute garbage he's never going to fold to your reraise. (You can't push someone around if they're already in a corner. You push, they punch.) Thus the the only reason to bet is if you can say with confidence, "Not only am I ahead right now, but I will still be ahead after the turn and river."

The problem is that in light of his bet you probably are not ahead. Moreover, even if you are it seems likely that he has two overcards to you, giving him six outs times two to beat you. (Absent another 6 or 2 of course.) Not good odds, IMO - wait a hand or two and then steal.

Question for the group about SB's play: in his place, what do you do? t800 is getting awfully close to "better off pushing" territory, and as we saw, he had no intention of folding. If you're willing to bet the tournament on the hand, are you better off going all-in on the flop?

Hand Two: Unless you think this guy is capable to trying a steal from UTG with garbage, this is an easy fold. Assuming he's got two cards over a six (which seems likely), you're betting your tournament on a coin-flip.

Jason Strasser

06-23-2004, 01:55 PM

I'll be a little more thorough than eastbay. Those comments really don't help anyone.

The entire idea with being aggressive on the bubble is to steal blinds and pots without showing your cards. The unwillingness of most people to commit all their chips on the bubble is a smart player's greatest weapon in a sit and go.

Both these spots--your opponent had a very easy call. They were not in a spot to fold, and you are much better off not going to war with the so-so holdings you have. I would much prefer you pushing preflop with 62s, when someone limps in like that... That is a profitable play. Majority of players will toss A9o in a second in that spot (if they were too weak tight to bring it in with a raise). I make plays like that all the time. However, hitting bottom pair and coming over the top is not good. A bet in that spot from your opponent says "I hit the flop!" (BTW the correct play in that spot is for the SB to go all in PF... IMO) And your opponent is way too pot committed at this point to fold. You can NOT bully someone pot committed.

The other hand also makes no sense. You are going to get called. Zero percent of your opponents will fold there, so what is your all in trying to accomplish? You are likely a small favorite or a big dog, and there are tons of better spots to get your money in (like stealing the blinds with much worse hands). If it was folded to you, this is a no brainer all in.

Hope that helped, you have some room for improvement, but you can get there with a few adjustments.

dfscott

06-23-2004, 02:00 PM

Just to make sure I'm understanding it correctly -- it sounds like in both of these cases, either are playable (even pushable) if there wasn't a prior raise. If I'm raised, I need to throw it away unless it's a monster.

When do you get to the "any two cards" push? 3xBB? 2xBB? I just wanted to have a big enough stack so that they wouldn't automatically call me. Is that thinking wrong?

Jason Strasser

06-23-2004, 02:06 PM

For me, its more like 10x BB is push any two... Give or take.

So, naturally I do a lot of pushing. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Edit: Whoops. I meant 10x the BB or less is when I only have one bet, all in. I'm not completely sure what "push any two" in the context of your question means.

ZeeJustin

06-23-2004, 02:34 PM

I'm not sure if anyone has said this or not, but the correct play for QTo there is actually to go all-in. Folding and raising to 3x the BB are both weak plays.