winrate question

[benkath1]

Ok, I am playing the nickel dime game at pacific. I can't download hand histories or use PT so I am trying to do this on my own and am not quite sure if I got this right. I have a VERY small sample size, but as I continue I want to make sure I am figuring this right. To get my 'bb/100' figure, I divide my hands by how many big bets I have won?

Ah what the hell I'll just give you the numbers. I got a 10 dollar bonus for signing up 2 weeks ago. I have played about 800 hands and am up 10 bucks. I know this isn't the BR I need, but I am working on that. Does that mean I am at 8bb/100? I also know that isn't enough hands for long term results, I would just like to know for future reference. From what I have read, bb/100 is usually around 3???
What about bb/hour? Does anybody go by that too?
Thanks, Ben

[PseudoPserious]

Hi Ben,

[ QUOTE ]
To get my 'bb/100' figure, I divide my hands by how many big bets I have won?
<snip>
I have played about 800 hands and am up 10 bucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Almost...you divide the number of big bets by the number of hands, then multiply by 100:

$10 = 100 big bets.
BB/hand = 100 / 800 = 0.125
BB/100 hands = 12.5

So, if you're up $10 after 800 hands at .05/.10, you've earned 12.5 big bets for every 100 hands you played. Nice.

[ QUOTE ]
From what I have read, bb/100 is usually around 3???


[/ QUOTE ]

Well, that depends on how good you are, doesn't it? I know several people who have bb/100 values far, far below 3. Like me, for example.

I think that any figure above 4 or so isn't really sustainable, and just reflects a run of good cards (and an overly small sample size).

[ QUOTE ]
What about bb/hour? Does anybody go by that too?

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with bb/hour vs. bb/100 is that so many things impact the number of hands you play per hour...how slow the other players are, how fast the software is, how many hands you sit out, how many tables you play at, and that's in addition to a lot of other things if you play live. Calculating bb/100 removes those extraneous, complicating factors.

IMO, bb/hour is best used to evaluate live play, where it's a little trickier to track exactly how many hands you play. You can then guesstimate a conversion factor to bb/100 which will let you compare your live and online win rates.

Hope this helps (and isn't too erroneous)...
PP

[Patrick del Poker Grande]

[ QUOTE ]
IMO, bb/hour is best used to evaluate live play, where it's a little trickier to track exactly how many hands you play. You can then guesstimate a conversion factor to bb/100 which will let you compare your live and online win rates.

[/ QUOTE ]
That, and to evaluate things like whether or not playing a tournament is a +EV move for you. If you can somehow figure that some tournament is likely worth $x/hour to you, then you can compare this to your ring game hourly rate to give a good indication of whether you're better off playing the tournament or just ring games, at least immediately monitarily.

[benkath1]

wow, thank you. I appreciate the great replies.
Ben

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, that depends on how good you are, doesn't it? I know several people who have bb/100 values far, far below 3. Like me, for example.

I think that any figure above 4 or so isn't really sustainable, and just reflects a run of good cards (and an overly small sample size).

[/ QUOTE ]

What is a good sample to confirm that you are, in fact, good at this game and haven't caught more than your fair share of good cards?

I am averaging 3.75BB/100 for 12,344 hands. At what point can I be reasonably assured that I am a winning player capable of sustaining close to this.

[AKQJ10]

[ QUOTE ]
What is a good sample to confirm that you are, in fact, good at this game and haven't caught more than your fair share of good cards?

[/ QUOTE ]

Excellent question -- and I'm just quoting it to reiterate that this is, in fact, a question that I have as a beginner up the slope of the microlimits.

Everyone seems to agree that you need 300 BB in your bankroll to not be threatened, but that doesn't answer this question. If I'm at -150 BB after say 5000 hands*, should I write that off as statistical variance or conclude that I'm no good at playing the present limit and need to move down or study up before attempting it again?

---
* I'm nowhere near that, more like -10 to -20 BB after 1000 hands at different limits: big bets of 4c and 10c Paradise, 10c at Pacific, $1 at Party, and a little 2/4 at Foxwoods. Consequently I'm nowhere near concluding I can't be successful at any of these, although the 5c/10c Paradise is the toughest of these so far!

[PseudoPserious]

[ QUOTE ]
What is a good sample to confirm that you are, in fact, good at this game and haven't caught more than your fair share of good cards?

I am averaging 3.75BB/100 for 12,344 hands. At what point can I be reasonably assured that I am a winning player capable of sustaining close to this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a figure bandied about is 30k hands or so. Check out some of the older posts in the probabilty section.

PP

[Greg J]

[ QUOTE ]
* I'm nowhere near that, more like -10 to -20 BB after 1000 hands at different limits: big bets of 4c and 10c Paradise, 10c at Pacific, $1 at Party, and a little 2/4 at Foxwoods. Consequently I'm nowhere near concluding I can't be successful at any of these, although the 5c/10c Paradise is the toughest of these so far!

[/ QUOTE ]

DUDE! Are you serious? Swear to me that the $.05/.1 game at Paradise is tougher than $.5/1 at Party.

I am not doubting you. I am just considering moving up. I am doing quite well at $.5/.1 nano limit Paradise right now, and am considering moving up soon. If the Party game is SOFTER, then I know where i have to go!

So, just for clarification, are you 1000% sure that the .5/1 game at party is softer??

Thanks /images/graemlins/smile.gif
Greg

[AKQJ10]

[ QUOTE ]
So, just for clarification, are you 1000% sure that the .5/1 game at party is softer??

[/ QUOTE ]

No, my observations above are based on a VERRRRRRRRRY small sample. I've played for money only a couple of times at Party, observed a few more.

That said, I think Party's clientele has a fishier reputation that Paradise's, and of course .50/$1 is the lowest hold-em Party offers. Segregate off a bit of your bankroll, play a few sessions, and see what you think. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Greg J]

I tried to start a series of posts about this a while back on another thread on this forum. On this I wrote about "life at paradise nano limits" where i described the .02/.04 and .05/.1 games. Unfortunately no one else contributed.

The .05/.1 is tougher than the .02/.04 table, but not by too much. There is more selectiveness preflop generally, and some tables can get tight. That being said, I have been doing well here. If .05/.1 at Paradise is actually tougher than the .5/1 Party game, then we know where to recommend newbies to go to learn.

Still, given you say your sample size is too small for you to say confidently that the .5/1 Party tables are softer, I was wondering if anyone else had opinions on this. I have not played party (except play money a while back, then uninstalled it) so I can't say.

Anyone else want to address this? Just HOW soft is .5/1 at party? Can anyone compare it to micro and nano limits at other sites?

I would like a thread addressing this. Maybe I will start one on micro limits. But until then, any feedback would be appreciated.

[imported_turvalon]

I'd like to know this as well. I moved up to the paradise .05/.10 tables for a session just to see what it was like (I won a few bucks) and it was much tighter than the .02/.04 I didn't want to hang around for long because I want to get to 300 BB before I do, but I find that at the .02/.04 game, it's all the "free $2" players and they just give it away.

I am in the same boat as you... no money. I am just grinding away at the nano limit games and one day I will have a roll to play something like party .50/1 I guess I need to learn how to bonus whore may way up to $300 to play over at party.

Oh, and the softest tables I have seen are at Pacific. They gave me $10 and although you can't multitable and the software is average, the players were really loose. For example I had AQs on the button, preflop gets capped, flop comes all Hearts giving me the nut flush, and 3 guys went with me all the way to the river capping each time. They turn over their cards, one didn't have anything, the other middle pair. I was shocked.

[benkath1]

I sat right next to you turvalon this morning at pacific. AQ and flopped nut str8. 2 callers till the end. I was rooting for you!

[RED_RAIN]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What is a good sample to confirm that you are, in fact, good at this game and haven't caught more than your fair share of good cards?

I am averaging 3.75BB/100 for 12,344 hands. At what point can I be reasonably assured that I am a winning player capable of sustaining close to this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a figure bandied about is 30k hands or so. Check out some of the older posts in the probabilty section.

PP

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. When I hit 15k I thought I had my winrate. After 30k when I thought about it, I was more to my true winrate.

The hard thing is since I just started poker at the .5/1, my first 15k were also my first limit poker playing. So then what I did was this, I still keep track of my overall BB/100 rate over all my hands, but I also then split them up into 15k sections. Since I believe my play has changed over time to improve a lot it's nice to see the difference. My second 15k has a much higher BB/100 rate, PFR, VP$IP, and other stats at a better level. Perhaps if I do stay at this level for awhile I will split up into 30k cause I do feel 30k shows better than even 15k. I also am merging into 1/2 but find .5/1 pretty easy so then I can do other stuff and not really pay attention.

[RED_RAIN]

I am reading some posts about party/empire .5/1, all I have to say is if you read on her about preflop hand selection and raising (very important), then about post flop plays (when and when not to raise the flop with overcards/draws), value bets at river, getting the most out of the pot but not overplaying your hand, you should be able to beat the .5/1

I would even go to say if you put in $100 into empire, did a rebate kickback (with me of course /images/graemlins/tongue.gif), got your 20% deposit, you could win without more than likely going bust. I know many people who did this and some with only $50. Is there a chance of you going bust legitimately? Yes. But if you had the above at a pretty good level I believe it’s rather small.

I never did the nanolimit tables but when you guys are saying that 0.02/0.04 tables are tight regardless of site, that’s just horrible, .5/1 party/empire games are not tight, when often there are at least one if not more calling Q5s with one limper middle position, K6o late position, 3-betting you PF into your PFR with A6s.

[Bob T.]

What about bb/hour? Does anybody go by that too?


Oldtimers who played before this internet thing got going use BB/hour, and SD/hour. Maybe someday I'll start thinking in per 100 units, or maybe not.

Good luck,
play well,

Bob T.

[imported_turvalon]

[ QUOTE ]
I sat right next to you turvalon this morning at pacific. AQ and flopped nut str8. 2 callers till the end. I was rooting for you!

[/ QUOTE ]

*Makes note... benkath1 = pattern mapper

/images/graemlins/wink.gif