Commerce 10-20 NL QQ hand

[Ulysses]

10-20NL. You have 3000. You haven't been here long but have been playing pretty tight and solid.

You open for 70 UTG+1 w/ QcQs, your standard open. Tough-playing big stack raises you to 150 from the CO. He has been playing well and running good - he has well over 10k. This raise means he has a real hand, definitely. May or may not be better than yours. Call or re-raise?

Flop is QdKc2d

Lead, check-call or check-raise?

Pot 300. You decide to check. He bets 300. You call.

Turn is As(QdKc2d)

What's your plan now?

Pot 900. If you bet and he pushes, what? If you check and he bets around pot, what?

[schwza]

My line would have been to reraise before the flop, maybe up to 500 or so, planning on folding if the big stack makes a big move.

I would lead the flop, scared of free cards and hoping for the chance to 3-bet. If I checked and he bet, I'd raise, hoping it's AA or AK.

After check-calling the flop, I'd check-raise the turn, figuring this board must've hit the guy and he'll probably bet. He'd have a pretty tough time getting away from AK (well, I would anyway), and there are 9 AK's and only 6 KK/AA's so I'd try to get the money in. Sounds like the hand (and the session) worked out pretty well for you.

[ML4L]

Hey Diablo,

Money isn't right to lead out on the flop. Check is better. If the way to break his AA/AK is to check-raise and have him repop, go for it. If you're playing tight enough for him to much AK to a check-raise, or call and much to a turn bet, I'd check-call. Will he fire a second barrel with JJ? Yes is another vote for check-calling. The reason to check-raise is so that when the flush comes, he doesn't misread you for it and you lose your action...

I think it's close: if your gut is that he can muck AK here, call; if he's married to his hand, raise.

On the turn, it's 3:2 that he has AK vs AA/KK. I'd assume him to push with AK, so if you bet and he pushes, you have the odds to call. If he'd fire again with JJ/TT, check-raise all-in. If not, bet and call a raise.

I excluded AQ; could he have that trash?

ML4L

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
I excluded AQ; could he have that trash?


[/ QUOTE ]

He probably doesn't have AQ. I'd say he's much more likely to have 78 here than AQ.

[turnipmonster]

I wish I hadn't read both of these before deciding to respond.

I agree with checking the flop, I am either way way ahead (AA,AK,everything else) or way way behind (KK), either way a free card doesn't upset me, and I seriously doubt a tough player is going to take one on this flop anyways.

I hate to sound like a parrot, but I agree with mike that you have to make the read. is he committed or not? I lean towards checkraising, because he's more likely to put me on a steal and repop and I can go ahead and get the money in.

check calling is ok, but a tough player is going to slow down to a check call anyways so I'm not convinced I can break him check calling.

I dunno, what do you guys think about underbetting the pot here, and if he smooth calls drop the hammer on the turn?

--turnipmonster

[Ulysses]

I'm not sure on this one, but I kinda feel like leading out on the flop is better. I just don't think him re-popping a flop checkraise is something you can really count on. And the money's deep enough that I think a good player can get away from a lot of hands with a flop checkraise/turn lead line if he doesn't repop. I think betting is better. Then the question becomes repop on the flop, stop-n-go on the turn, or checkraise the turn? Once again, I'm not sure of the best line after leading the flop.

[Ulysses]

See results here. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=772586&page=0&view=collap sed&sb=5&o=&fpart=1#Post773266#772586)

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
See results here. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=772586&page=0&view=collap sed&sb=5&o=&fpart=1#Post773266#772586)

[/ QUOTE ]

tu eres, realmente, el diablo.

-Barron

[ML4L]

[ QUOTE ]
tu eres, realmente, el diablo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Su espanol es muy pobre.

Miguel

[BottlesOf]

I've only read one book on NL, and haven't played any serious nl, but it seems that you have nailed it on this post. The real Q. is pf

[turnipmonster]

preflop? the flop is way more interesting. preflop he has an easy call. a raise isn't going to fold any better hands, and if his opponent does have a big pair he would be getting odds for the set.

--turnipmonster

[BottlesOf]

Odds for the set? PF? Well doesn't that depend on how much you pop him back for? What kind of odds do you think he'd need?

[BottlesOf]

Odds for the set? PF? Well doesn't that depend on how much you pop him back for? What kind of odds do you think he'd need?

[turnipmonster]

I am saying that preflop, I think he should call the 80. when a tough, 10k stack reraises you with what is likely a real hand, I think reraising is a mistake.

with 3k behind, in order for him to make a real reraise he's going to have to raise at least 300 more. from here, there's a lot of bad things that can happen to QQ with 5x the pot behind.

the best thing that can happen is tough player folds. I am not a big fan of risking 300 to win 150 against a really tough big stack. he may test me, and I am probably going to flunk the test /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

but he's not going to fold. he's going to call a reraise because he has position, and now he's got you on a very narrow range of hands, whereas he could have anything. so now there's 900 in the pot and you have 2700 behind, and you are in a very tough spot with any flop without a Q. we are sailing fast towards the murky waters of pot stuckedness if we bet the flop, but we may have to fold the best hand if he plays back.

out of position with QQ I want to play a small pot, not a big one. so I think reraising a tough player is a big mistake.

--turnipmonster

[ML4L]

n/m

[Ulysses]

What he said...

[turnipmonster]

hey mike,
if you have a second, could you detail your reasoning for checking the flop? I think I'm missing something important based on how you worded it.

--turnipmonster

[felson]

I agree that flat-calling and hoping to flop a set is the right play. That said, with what hands would you consider a reraise here? Anything other than AA? Would you ever make a move here with a suited connector?

[BottlesOf]

Awesome, thanks for being patient with an nl noob

[ML4L]

Hey turnip,

OK, checking the flop. Basically, the opponent is just going to call the flop with AK/AA, so check-calling vs. betting and getting called is going to get in the same amount of money. But, I like the check because it keeps the strength of your hand disguised. There is little chance that the opponent is on diamonds, so giving a free card if he happens to check behind is not much of an issue. Plus, leading on the turn after a check-check flop doesn't say much about your hand.

As far as the comment about the money not being right, I guess I didn't phrase it quite right. What I kinda had in mind was that the money was deep enough that leading the flop and hoping to get in a shootout with AA probably wasn't an option. Plus, the money is about deep enough for a bet and two raises on the flop. If you lead out and he decides to raise for whatever reason, and you move in, he is less likely than he is to move the money in HIMSELF after a check-bet-CR line.

Reading my post, I think most of it, primarily the second paragraph, is crazy talk. The main reason that I like the check is that I feel like you are disguising the strength of your hand, likely without costing yourself anything, and giving yourself more options on the turn than if you bet the flop and get called, leaving you in the driver seat for the hand. Here, the best chance you have to get action from a worse hand is with HIM putting in the money, not you...

This really is gibberish. Does this make sense to anybody? Diablo or anyone, is this even close to being right?

ML4L

[Ulysses]

Yeah, I'm not sure you're really on the mark here. If he'll repop a checkraise, then sure, checking is great. But I just don't think you're going to see that all that often from a good player here.

I think betting the flop expecting to be called and planning lead the turn is probably the best route.

[ML4L]

Hey Diablo,

I can't figure out how opponent would play his AA/AK here (assuming an ace doesn't spike). Is he gonna back it with his stack, or not? If he's just gonna fold the turn, what does it matter? If he's gonna call the turn, why would he not be willing to play stronger on the flop?

ML4L

[DcifrThs]

i wrote it in spanglish thank you very much...queri que la gente aqui entendria que le dije...pero no hay muchisimas personas que juegan al poker y tambien hablan espanol.

pero, sin embargo, tienes razon.

-Barron

[ML4L]

[ QUOTE ]
i wrote it in spanglish thank you very much...

[/ QUOTE ]

I apologize. Being a huge fan of spanglish myself, me gusto your usage... /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[ QUOTE ]
queri que la gente aqui entendria que le dije...pero no hay muchisimas personas que juegan al poker y tambien hablan espanol.

[/ QUOTE ]

No piensas? He jugado "poker" con muchas personas que hablan espanol...

ML4L

[Ulysses]

Well, now we're getting into territory that is really tough to say for sure when neither combatant is a participant in the discussion.

(Assuming blank turn/river)

I do know with a pretty good degree of certainty that AA will fold to a large flop checkraise.

If the action goes check-call on the flop, I think the turn action will go check-check a fair amount of the time.

If QQ bets the flop, AA might raise, but also might call. If he raises, I think you just hope he's willing to back AA and doesn't have KK and repop right there. But I could see arguments for other lines. If AA just calls here, I think you just have to lead again (2/3 pot maybe?) and often will get called down by someone who thinks they are in a way ahead/way behind situation.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
pero no hay muchisimas personas que juegan al poker y tambien hablan espanol.

[/ QUOTE ]

no es verdad!

[ML4L]

[ QUOTE ]
If QQ bets the flop, AA might raise, but also might call. If he raises, I think you just hope he's willing to back AA and doesn't have KK and repop right there. But I could see arguments for other lines. If AA just calls here, I think you just have to lead again (2/3 pot maybe?) and often will get called down by someone who thinks they are in a way ahead/way behind situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes a lot of sense and almost has me sold. But what doesn't sit right with me is that, if our Hero with AA has foresight, he will realize that he is not going to get to showdown cheaply when QQ leads the flop. If he leads the flop, turn, and river, that's darn near the whole 2700, assuming reasonable bets. So, if QQ is playing aggressively, at some point during the hand, AA has to decide whether he is committed. If AA calls the turn in the way ahead/way behind situation, what does he do when QQ bets the river? Muck? That's the kind of stuff that I used to do (put in a decent sum on the turn, only to release on the river when my opponent keeps firing), and I feel like I've learned better...

So, checking and putting the possibility of a lesser hand (pair and flush draw, AK, etc.) in the mind of AA is the way to go in my mind. It's gonna take some inducing to get money out of AA here, and I don't think leading into him is going to do it, based on your read (which I agree with). I think a good player releases on the turn or raises; he doesn't call...

Whatcha think?

ML4L

[Ulysses]

For AA, I think flop call/turn call is a horrible line against a tough player for the reasons you state. However, I don't think he considered the kid a tough player - just a decent, solid player, and perhaps one playing slightly bigger than his true comfort level. Those types of players will often fire on the flop and turn, then only fire big again on the river with a monster. So, I don't think it's that bad to call the flop and turn and then make a decision on the river. I see that type of player often go bet/bet/check whereas against a tougher player the turn call is often silly if you're not willing to commit your stack on the river. So, now we're getting into the "how does QQ think AA perceives him" area when it comes to the best line for QQ to take.

[bunky9590]

You're not the only gringo that can speak/write spanish and play poker chief.

Que pinche estas haciendo aqui?

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
No piensas? He jugado "poker" con muchas personas que hablan espanol...

[/ QUOTE ]

obviamente, no hemos tenido la misma experiencia...

i guess i just don't play in cali...there's one guy, danny, a guatemalen guy at the game i play in here in DC that speads spanish, and another maybe one or two who can piece together what we say but its always real basic like an' just messin around...

its interesting to know how others learned it though...personally, i've been travelling ever since i was just a wee pup and my mom and dad decided after 8th grade i had to learn spanish so every summer i spent the months either in spain or costa rica doing all sorts of cool stuff in spanish. the summer before my freshman year at GWU i lived in barcelona and my girlfriend there spoke ni una palabra, ni palabrota of english. so, ya gotta learn the hard way. but i take it from your name, miguel, that you've had some first hand familial experience with the language (or was that more spanglish for michael?)

-BarrOn

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
pero no hay muchisimas personas que juegan al poker y tambien hablan espanol.

[/ QUOTE ]

no es verdad!

[/ QUOTE ]

allow me to rephrase.

AROUND ME, there aren't...

better? or better yet. IVE NEVER played with 'em. and i played in florida on the st. tropez off of port everglades...the people there seem to speak hebrew and hungarian more than spanish.

-Barron

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
That's the kind of stuff that I used to do (put in a decent sum on the turn, only to release on the river when my opponent keeps firing), and I feel like I've learned better...


[/ QUOTE ]

this is something i'm still learning. i try to have the whole action plan laid out or at least probabalistic parts of it given this that or the other but sometimes i can't nail his hand down until the river and then i know i'm done and can't call...but i SHOULD have known on the turn whether i was committed or not. and the flop/turn relationship i think helps that little learning curve because there is a similar give and take there...

what would you say was something that helped you with this issue? im now playing a LOT more 100 and 200 buy in at party than i am anything else and have been on a nice consistant run...but i don't play against great players and even the BEST OF THE BEST regulars i see aren't anything to write home about...PL im not as good at i realize /images/graemlins/frown.gif but am working on that too...any suggestions?

-Barron

[ML4L]

[ QUOTE ]
but i take it from your name, miguel, that you've had some first hand familial experience with the language (or was that more spanglish for michael?)

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Barron,

Wish I could say that I have, but mine comes from classes in high school and college. I knew a bit, but never got fluent, and I'm not even close now. But, I remember enough to know that "realmente" doesn't mean what you intended it to (in Spanish, that is; in Spanglish, it was the correct word to use... /images/graemlins/grin.gif).

Mike

PS Never played in Cali either. But even us Southern boys know a little... /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[ML4L]

[ QUOTE ]
sometimes i can't nail his hand down until the river and then i know i'm done and can't call...but i SHOULD have known on the turn whether i was committed or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

Diablo nailed a point that I had passed over in that, sometimes, if the river action will give a stone-cold read on a player's hand, while there is some uncertainty on the turn, it is correct to call a turn bet, even if you know that you will fold to a river bet. But, this is best reserved for very specific situations (ie small bets from readable opponents).

[ QUOTE ]
what would you say was something that helped you with this issue?

[/ QUOTE ]

Making the same mistake about 100 times. It sinks in eventually...

[ QUOTE ]
but i don't play against great players and even the BEST OF THE BEST regulars i see aren't anything to write home about...

[/ QUOTE ]

I try to avoid playing against great players as well. I'd much rather read their posts than lose money to them. And if you want to avoid great players, Party is the place to do it...

[ QUOTE ]
PL im not as good at i realize /images/graemlins/frown.gif but am working on that too...any suggestions?

[/ QUOTE ]

Keep playing and reading 2+2. If you're referring to the differences between PL and NL, there have been some recent posts on that, but for all intents and purposes, they're the same...

Mike

[ML4L]

[ QUOTE ]
For AA, I think flop call/turn call is a horrible line against a tough player for the reasons you state. However, I don't think he considered the kid a tough player - just a decent, solid player, and perhaps one playing slightly bigger than his true comfort level. Those types of players will often fire on the flop and turn, then only fire big again on the river with a monster. So, I don't think it's that bad to call the flop and turn and then make a decision on the river. I see that type of player often go bet/bet/check whereas against a tougher player the turn call is often silly if you're not willing to commit your stack on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree 100%. Still think that you're gonna win about as much by playing the hand more passively, though; the primary reason being that it is going to be impossible to get much out of a good player holding AA here REGARDLESS of the line... Wish I had time to discuss the point more, but I must concede...

[ QUOTE ]
So, now we're getting into the "how does QQ think AA perceives him" area when it comes to the best line for QQ to take.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, we've only really scratched the surface of the hand... Going out of town, so I won't be able to keep up the discussion, but there's a lot of good stuff here still untouched.

Great post.

ML4L