Does anyone call the river with this unimproved AK?

[chesspain]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed)

Loose, fishy game, although Button has flown under my radar, meaning that he may have a clue.

Preflop: chesspain is MP3 with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif. CO posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls, <font color="666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">chesspain raises</font>, CO (poster) calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (12 SB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">chesspain bets</font>, CO calls, <font color="CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds, chesspain calls, CO calls.

Turn: (9 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
chesspain checks, CO checks, <font color="CC3333">Button bets</font>, chesspain calls, CO folds.

River: (11 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
chesspain checks, <font color="CC3333">Button bets</font>, chesspain ???????

Since the Button coldcalled preflop, raised the flop, and then bet the turn rather than taking a free card, does anyone call this river getting 12:1 on the hopes that he has KQ?

[sthief09]

with no read, I think this is an extremely easy call.

[Haupt_234]

I am going to say the total opposite of stheif and say that if I had no read, it would be a fold.

Haupt_234

[sthief09]

you'd be amazed how many times I call people down with A or K-high and win.

[Haupt_234]

[ QUOTE ]
you'd be amazed how many times I call people down with A or K-high and win.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just can't see A high taking down the pot, neither in this circumstance or in the 3/6 game I am used to. I think 9 times out of 10, I will be shown A10o or QJo or something like that, especially with the amount of aggression from the opponent.

Also, if the opponent was going for the aggressive steal, why would he just cold call preflop? Perhaps the reason why I don't normally call down with unimproved AK is because it is hard for me to put a preflop coldcaller on a hand...

Haupt_234

[wayabvpar]

With no read, I give him credit for having a hand and fold on the turn.

[Aces McGee]

[ QUOTE ]
With no read, I give him credit for having a hand and fold on the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

With quite possibly 10 outs (including four to the nuts), folding on the turn is a very big mistake.

-McGee

[chesspain]

You do realize that even without my A or K outs I pretty much have the pot odds for my gutshot draw?

[TRWIII]

I wouldnt say that this is a clear cut easy answer either way. The button has shown a good deal of strength by cold calling preflop and leading all three streets afterwards. Is it possible he's pushing a busted straight draw? Yes, but without any strong reads on him I'd lean towards him having at least a pair of tens, but the chance of the busted draw is still present.

The question is whether the chances on that busted draw are better than 12-1. While in this case I dont think they are this is a case where I'd advise calling for the following reason: if the call is wrong, you lose a big bet, and if you fold incorrectly you cost yourself the whole pot... better to be slightly wrong with minimal consequences then slightly right with major ones if you guess wrong.

Just my two cents andd half of it probably wrong,
TRWIII

[wayabvpar]

You are right- I missed the preflop raise, and so the pot is twice as big as I thought it was. Mea culpa.